“David is an incredible person and I am happy that we became friends. His understanding and knowledge of statistics and sports betting are simply amazing. When I started betting in 1998, a lot of bettors made a lot of money only because bookmakers made a lot of mistakes. But the world is changing and bookmakers are smarter than ever. Reading news, watching the games and betting on so-called winners is not enough anymore. if you want to win at sports betting, it is crucial to use statistics and find a value. The ability to identify a value is a skill limited to a certain few. David is one of those few, that has the knowledge, skill and the ability. His projected lines and statistical models are unique, that’s why when anyone asks me which site I recommend to follow it’s his site and his projected lines. He will give you that extra value, that you need for winning. Not only, that you will meet one of the smartest guys in the business, he is also one of the nicest. Hands down!”
 
MB, Underdogchance.com

Article about professor David in NY Post: Meet the stats professor who’s beating the house on NHL bets

Professor MJ: NFL Picks for Week #15!

Hello faithful readers, how are you doing today? Last week I mentioned that I was looking to raise my success rate back above 60% before the NFL regular season ends. We took a good step towards this objective by going 2-0 with our picks as the Panthers upset the Vikings while the Ravens covered the spread in Pittsburgh. We also won both of our leans, as the Falcons and the Broncos both won as slight underdogs.

Let’s get it rolling with more picks this week, let’s dive into the details right now!

PICK #1: New York Giants +7.5 vs Philadelphia Eagles

It will be very interesting to see how Nick Foles does as the new Eagles’ starting quarterback after all-star Carson Wentz went down with a torn ACL, an injury that ended his season. The Eagles currently hold the best record in the NFL, as well as the best point differential in the league.

Nick Foles has been in the league since 2012, where he compiled 56 TD passes versus 27 interceptions. While those numbers sound great, they are greatly inflated by an astounding 2013 season where he racked up 27 touchdowns against only 2 picks. So if you look at his numbers since 2014, he has thrown 23 TD passes against 20 interceptions, which is not great at all. Also, he might need a little bit of time to adjust to game speed considering he has only attempted 14 passes this year and 55 last season. In other words, he hasn’t been playing much over the past two years.

Even though the Giants’ season has been over for a while, they will be motivated to play in this heated rivalry. Such games involving opponents that hate each other tend to be close more often than not.

Moreover, the Eagles have been traveling quite a bit of late. This weekend’s game will be their third straight on the road, after playing a couple of matches on the West Coast, more specifically in Seattle and Los Angeles. It will also represent a fourth road game in five matches. That’s a tough stretch.

After winning a high-profile game at the Rams, the Eagles might take the 2-11 Giants a bit lightly, while the Giants will certainly want to rebound after dropping a 30-10 decision against the Cowboys. The score sounds worse than it truly was since the game was tied at 10 apiece through three quarters.

The Giants will also be looking to avenge a 27-24 loss in Philly earlier this year.

PICK #2: Buffalo Bills -3.5 vs Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins pulled off a great upset by beating the Patriots 27-20 in the Monday Nighter. I expect a letdown after such an emotional game, especially with one fewer day to prepare for this key matchup with the Bills.

Buffalo will be more rested than Miami, not only because of the additional day of preparation, but also because this game will be their third consecutive at New Era Field. These two teams hate each other, with the revenge factor going to Buffalo since they lost both meetings by a 3-point margin in 2016.

The Bills are expected to get quarterback Tyrod Taylor back from an injury, which is a good timing since backup Nate Peterman suffered a concussion last week. Wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin was limited at Wednesday’s practice, but he should be good to go. Playing in the blizzard last week probably didn’t help healing his injured knee, but it didn’t prevent him from making a key touchdown catch against the Colts.

Over their last five visits in Orchard Park, the Dolphins are 1-4 against the spread. As of now, the weather forecast does not involve any snowfall on Sunday, but the temperature should be around 0 degree Celsius (or 32 degrees Farenheit). Playing in the cold could help the Bills a little bit.

LEAN: Denver Broncos -2.5 at Indianapolis Colts

The Broncos finally snapped an 8-game losing streak by handling the New York Jets pretty easily last week. They looked great and seemed to have found their rhythm back. Their defense looked good early in the season, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they finish the season strong. They do have some nice talent on this side of the ball.

Meanwhile, the Colts suffered a significant blow when they lost their top cornerback, Rashaan Melvin, to an injury a couple of weeks ago. Their secondary is now awful, and I do believe Trevor Siemian is capable of taking advantage of them with good weapons like Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders at his disposal.

VERY SLIGHT LEAN: Kansas City Chiefs +1 vs Los Angeles Chargers

I’m tempted to take the Chiefs as slight underdogs at home against the red-hot Chargers, even though L.A. will be looking for revenge after losing 24-10 at home against those same Chiefs on week #3. However, I do believe K.C. could be back on track following a critical 26-15 win over Oakland, after going through a difficult 4-game losing streak. The Chiefs will also be at home for a third time over the past four weeks, while the Chargers will need to travel through a couple of time zones on a shorter week since the game is scheduled for Saturday.

DISCUSSING THE PATRIOTS-STEELERS GAME

My initial thought was to bet New England in this one because they tend to strike back after a loss. As a matter of fact, Belichick’s team has beaten the spread the last six times coming off a straight up loss.

I also wonder if there is enough gas left in the tank for Pittsburgh after going through a couple of emotional games against the Bengals and the Ravens. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying they won’t be motivated for this game; I’m just asking whether they will have enough energy left to put up a good fight.

Le’Veon Bell got his knee bent in last week’s game, and it seemed to affect him as he struggled to find running lanes. Those of are planning to bet the Steelers might have to worry about his health.

What prevents me from pulling the trigger on New England is how they will be playing a third straight road game, while the Steelers have been at home for four out of the past five weeks (where the only game on the road was in Cincinnati, so not that far). Getting an extra day of rest compared to the Pats also plays in favor of Mike Tomlin’s team.

That’s the conclusion of this weekly NFL write-up, I hope you enjoyed it! Just a quick reminder that it’s important to have an account with many sportsbooks in order to be able to shop for the best line, which is critical to your success in the sports investing business. My website is providing a list of 20 online bookmakers, each getting a grade out of 100% along with a brutally honest review. I invite you to check them out here.

All right, so this is it for today, thank you so much for joining me, I appreciate a lot, and I hope you’ll be back next time. This is Professor MJ saying so long!

Professor MJ: NFL Picks for Week #14!

Hi football fans, I’m happy to be back to present my NFL picks for the week. There are only 4 weeks left in the regular season, it seems like it began not so long ago, time flies by so quickly! Our season record stands at 27-20-2 for a 57.4% success rate. I’m really aiming at getting over 60% before the season ends; it’s not going to be easy, but let’s give it a shot.

I’ve got two picks and two leans (unofficial picks) this week. Enjoy the read!

PICK #1: Carolina Panthers +3 vs Minnesota Vikings

I have picked the Vikings on a few occasions this year, but this time I am fading them. I don’t like how this is going to be their third straight game on the road, and also their fourth over the past five weeks. That’s a lot of traveling in a short period of time. You may argue that the Panthers are coming off a couple of road games, but that’s not as bad, especially considering they had spent their previous three weeks at home.

These two teams met in 2016 with Minnesota coming on top by a 22 to 10 score in Charlotte. Cam Newton threw three interceptions in that game, and he will certainly be looking for payback.

I also feel like Carolina will be hungrier to win that game. Sure, the Vikings are playing for home-field advantage but they have all but locked up the NFC North title already, while the Panthers are literally playing for their lives. They are one game back of the division lead, and one game ahead of the Falcons who are chasing them for the last playoff spot. They NEED this game.

I also like betting a strong team that is coming off a loss, which is the case here since Carolina dropped a 31-21 decision against the Saints last week. Meanwhile, the Vikings are cruising on an 8-game winning streak, which might inflate the line in their favor a little too much because of the public perception. They are a strong team, I’m not disputing that; but are they that much superior to the Panthers to warrant being a 3-point favorite on the road? That means Minnesota would be favored by 8 or 9 points at home against Carolina, which seems too big for me. Well, that’s my personal opinion; you may or may not agree with that statement.

By the way, the Panthers are very likely to welcome tight end Greg Olsen and center Ryan Kalil back from injuries this week. I’m taking the Panthers in this game.

PICK #2: Baltimore Ravens +5.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers

The vast majority of sportsbooks are posting a line of 5, but Sports Interaction still has 5.5. I like quite a few things about this play.

– Earlier this year, the Steelers rolled to a 26-9 victory in Baltimore. The Ravens turned the ball over three times in that game, which certainly did not help. The revenge factor is on their side.

– Much like my first pick, the desperation level is higher for a team fighting for its playoff hopes as opposed to a team who is pretty much guaranteed to reach the postseason but still playing for home-field advantage. Baltimore holds the last playoff spot and they have been playing much better of late, racking up four wins over their past five contests (where the only loss during that stretch was a close 23-20 loss to the Titans).

– Here is a fact that will probably surprise you quite a bit: Baltimore has a better point differential that Pittsburgh this year. Indeed, the Ravens are +73 versus +68 for the Steelers, even though Pittsburgh has three additional wins. And that’s despite the fact that Baltimore lost by 37 points against Jacksonville on week 3! That’s amazing! One of the reasons explaining this weird phenomenon is Pittsburgh having won six games by six points or less. In other words, only four times out of 12 games they have beaten their opponents by more than six points. That makes me more comfortable betting an above-average team with a +5.5 point spread against them.

– To me, the number one reason to lay the Steelers this week is how they probably won’t show up in top form. Not only are they coming off a Monday Nighter, which amounts to one less day of preparation, but that game in Cincinnati was extremely rough and physical. There were many personal fouls and injuries, including a couple of scary ones to Ryan Shazier and Vontaze Burfict. All NFL games are tough, but this one was up a notch. The Steelers will be more banged up than usual, and might letdown a little bit after such an emotional game (even though they are always ready to take on the Ravens). They might also look ahead to a critical game against the Patriots next week, a match that may settle who is going to hold home-field advantage throughout the playoffs in the AFC conference.

LEAN #1: Atlanta Falcons +2 vs New Orleans Saints

As I said earlier, I tend to expect good teams to rebound after suffering a loss. After a slow start to the 2017 season, Atlanta has woken up and I consider them a dangerous team. After losing 14-9 against the Vikings, I believe they will come out firing on all cylinders at home on primetime television. Meanwhile, the Saints are coming off a key win over the Panthers and may not feel like they absolutely need this game like the Falcons do.

I expected the line to favor the Falcons a little bit, and that’s how it opened, but they are now slight underdogs.

LEAN #2: Denver Broncos +1 vs New York Jets

A couple of months ago, you would not have believed me if I had told you that the Jets would be established as favorites in Denver. However, New York has been playing better than expected, while Denver is completely collapsing following a 3-1 start after dropping 8 straight games. Last week’s performance was really bad, as they lost 35-9 to the Dolphins. These guys are professionals, and pride will take over for sure. I do believe they will put a good effort in order to halt their worst skid in 50 years. They even allowed a successful onside kick in the fourth quarter as Miami was already up 33-9.

Meanwhile, the Jets won’t feel as desperate to win after making a nice comeback to overcome a 14-point deficit against the Chiefs last week. They will also be traveling through two time zones, and we all know about the thin air in Denver which requires some adjustments for visiting teams. Despite their poor 3-9 overall record, the Broncos are still 3-3 at home.

Another potential play?

If you believe in reverse line moves, then one game is really standing out this week. About 75% of spread and money line bets have gone on Green Bay so far, and yet the spread moved from Browns +4 points to Browns +3.5 or even +3 points with certain bookies. Sharp money is without a doubt backing Cleveland in this game. I just thought I would let you know.

My advice would be to either bet the Browns or stay away from the game. Cleveland is 3-9 against the spread this season and many people, including me, have been burned by them so it’s hard to feel super confident anytime you are betting this club. But if you are considering backing them this week, I would not call you crazy at all.

This is Professor MJ from Quebec City in Canada, it was good talking to you and I hope you’ll be back next week for more free NFL picks. Thanks and have a great day, see ya!

Professor MJ: 4 NFL Picks for Week #13!

Hi everyone, today I want to give you some insight about my top 4 NFL predictions of the week. Overall this season we are now 25-18-2 for a 58.1% success rate. Let’s try to get back above 60%.

PICK #1: Los Angeles Chargers -13.5 vs Cleveland Browns

At the time of this writing, most bookies are posting a spread of 14, but Bet365 has 13.5 points at -110 odds, or you could buy half a point with Pinnacle and get the Chargers for -13.5 points at -106.

Last year the Browns finished the season with a 1-15 record. Guess who’s the only team they beat? That’s right, the Chargers by a 20-17 score in Cleveland on week #16. Do you think Philip Rivers and company still remember that game? I bet they do, and they must feel like this is payback time.

I also like how the Chargers are getting three additional days of rest after playing last Thursday in Dallas. Meanwhile, the Browns will be playing a third road game in four games. The first two were pretty close from home as they played in Detroit and Cincinnati, but this one in L.A. will require traveling through three time zones.

The Chargers are definitely a team on the rise. Their 5-6 record is deceiving because they have outscored their opponents by 47 points thus far. They opened the season with four straight losses, but have gone 5-2 since then. Also, did you look at the margin of victory in their six losses? Their worst loss was a 14-point deficit against the Chiefs, they also lost by 8 points in New England, while their remaining 4 losses were all decided by 3 points or less. That’s pretty impressive.

PICK #2: Tennessee Titans -6.5 vs Houston Texans

I’m taking the Titans for 4 reasons:

– Here is one more case where the revenge factor comes into play. Back in week 4, the Titans were literally embarrassed in a 57-14 loss in Houston, a game in which DeShaun Watson threw 4 TD passes and ran for one more. Tennessee won’t let the foot off the accelerator this Sunday and will want to crush them. And you’ll probably agree with me that getting blown out is a possibility when your quarterback is Tom Savage.

– The Texans lost the Monday Nighter, which means one less day of preparation and a disrupted routine.

– Houston will be on the road for a third time in four games, including back-to-back weeks. That’s four different cities in as many weeks, which amounts to quite a bit of traveling.

– Losing in Baltimore pretty much sealed Houston’s fate. They are very likely out of the playoff race, and they know it, whereas the Titans are in a dog fight with the Jaguars for the AFC South title, and a playoff berth. I expect Tennessee to be much hungrier to win this match.

PICK #3: Arizona Cardinals +7 vs Los Angeles Rams

This is the prototypical sandwich game for the Rams. Their past two games were high-profile games against the Vikings and the Saints, while their next two will be against the 10-1 Philadelphia Eagles and the 7-4 Seattle Seahawks. It will be very easy to look past a mediocre Cardinals team.

However, Los Angeles should not take Arizona lightly. The Cards are 3-2 at home and they managed to upset the Jaguars at home last week. And it wasn’t a lucky win that occurred because of touchdowns on kick returns or turnovers. Indeed, Arizona racked up 344 totals yards versus only 219 for Jacksonville. Impressive performance by the Cards.

I generally don’t like betting a team that is coming off a big win (either because it turned out to be a surprise, or because it happened against a very strong team), but the Rams are also coming off a big win after beating the Saints 26 to 20.

Back in week #7, the Rams embarrassed the Cardinals in a 33-0 shutout. That game is still fresh in Arizona’ mind and they will certainly show up in top form this Sunday.

The line has not moved much despite fairly heavy action on the Rams. As a matter of fact, 74% of spread bets and 64% of money line bets have gone on LA.

PICK #4: Miami Dolphins +1.5 vs Denver Broncos

Jay Cutler has cleared the concussion protocol, so he will be facing his old team, where he played the first three years of his career after getting picked in the first round of the 2006 NFL draft. That’s certainly a motivational factor for him, and his teammates will do their best to get him the W.

This game features a couple of clubs who are on a pretty bad losing skid. Denver has lost its last 7 matches, while Miami has dropped 5 in a row.

The Broncos will be traveling through two time zones and the game will start at 11am for people from Denver. Also, the intensity level won’t be as high for the Broncos after visiting their archrivals in Oakland last week. Granted, the Dolphins will be playing under bizarre conditions as this game is sandwiched between two meetings with the Patriots. After getting beat up at Gillette Stadium last week, I expect them to rebound at home.

Thanks a lot for reading, this is Professor MJ from Quebec City in Canada, I hope to talk to you again very soon. Peace out!

Professor MJ

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