“David is an incredible person and I am happy that we became friends. His understanding and knowledge of statistics and sports betting are simply amazing. When I started betting in 1998, a lot of bettors made a lot of money only because bookmakers made a lot of mistakes. But the world is changing and bookmakers are smarter than ever. Reading news, watching the games and betting on so-called winners is not enough anymore. if you want to win at sports betting, it is crucial to use statistics and find a value. The ability to identify a value is a skill limited to a certain few. David is one of those few, that has the knowledge, skill and the ability. His projected lines and statistical models are unique, that’s why when anyone asks me which site I recommend to follow it’s his site and his projected lines. He will give you that extra value, that you need for winning. Not only, that you will meet one of the smartest guys in the business, he is also one of the nicest. Hands down!”
 
MB, Underdogchance.com

Article about professor David in NY Post: Meet the stats professor who’s beating the house on NHL bets

Professor MJ: One NBA Pick for Friday October 20!

Hi NBA fans! So far we are 3-0 with picks rated 3 stars or above versus 0-1 on those rated 2 stars or less. We have 10 games on the menu, and I only see one value play.

PICK: Charlotte Hornets -4 vs Atlanta Hawks (rated 3 stars)

The only thing I don’t like about this game is the reverse line move that we have observed: the spread opened at 6, and has now gone down to 4 despite 54% of the bets going Atlanta’s way. I haven’t heard of any major injury update during the day, so we can only explain it on sharp money going on the Hornets. I rarely go against that, but I will make an exception today.

I like the fact that Dwight Howard will be facing his former team, an additional motivation for Charlotte. He was traded in exchange for Miles Plumlee who is out until November because of a strained right quad.

The Hawks have not had much success in Charlotte recently, having lost the last three matchups there (5 of the past 6). Over the past 8 meetings overall, the Hornets are 5-2-1 against the spread.

Charlotte’s bench is not as deep with injuries to Cody Zeller, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Michael Carter-Williams, not to mention starter Nicolas Batum. On the Hawks’ side, they are thin up front with Plumlee’s injury.

Perhaps the public is overreacting to recent results, as the Hawks upset the Mavericks 117-111 in Dallas, while the Hornets lost by a 12-point margin in Detroit. I expect the Hornets to be much more focused after committing 17 turnovers in their opening game (which is a big surprise considering they have finished first in the league each of the past four seasons for the fewest giveaways in the league!).

Have a nice Friday night!

Professor MJ

Professor MJ: NFL Picks for Week #7 (15-5-1 over past 4 weeks)!

Good day everyone, I’m back for my week #7 NFL picks! Last week we had an unusually low number of value plays, going 1-1 after losing badly on the Denver pick, but winning the New Orleans pick. Our record over the last four weeks is now 15-5-1. This week I’ve got five (5) bets that I believe will be profitable for you. Let’s discuss them one by one.

PICK #1: Buffalo Bills -3 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bills are coming off their bye week, which is a good starting point from a betting perspective.

Moreover, Buffalo’s head coach Sean McDermott knows how to game plan against the Bucs after having spent six years as Carolina’s defensive coordinator from 2011 to 2016. He faced quarterback Jameis Winston on four occasions, whose statistics looked like this in these games: 93 of 155 (60%) for an average of 258 yards per game, 4 touchdown passes and 7 interceptions. Tampa Bay only scored an average of 16.8 points per game in those four contests.

As you may already know from previous write-ups, I also like to back the home team in games involving clubs coming from different conferences. The main reason is the lower level of motivation for them since the playoff implications are reduced, whereas the home team is still excited about the game because they are feeding off their home crowd. The Bucs may also be looking ahead to a couple of divisional matchups against the Panthers and the Saints over the next two weeks.

The Bills have only played two home games thus far in 2017, winning both of them: 21-12 over the Jets and an impressive 26-16 victory against the Broncos. Meanwhile, the Bucs have lost their two road games: 34-17 at Minnesota and 38-33 in Arizona, a game in which they trailed by as many as 31 points.

PICK #2: Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 at the Pittsburgh Steelers

Here is one more play where I’m taking a team coming off their bye week. Don’t underestimate the importance of this factor, please. A good game preparation is key in the NFL, not to mention the extra rest on the body. Of course, that doesn’t mean picking every single team after their bye week, but it’s an important variable to consider when handicapping NFL games.

The Bengals will also be looking for revenge after losing their two matchups against the Steelers last year. They lost 24-16 in Pittsburgh and 24-20 at home. After two horrible performances to start the season, Cincinnati canned its offensive coordinator. The results were immediate: after scoring just 9 points in their first two games, they have scored an average of 25 points since then, going 2-1 in the process with the only loss occurring in overtime at Lambeau Field.

Like him or not, lineback Vontaze Burfict is a hard hitter and he always makes his presence felt. He was suspended for the first three games of the season. The Bengals defense has allowed just 7 and 16 points in their two games since he got back on the field, but these games were against the Browns and the Bills, two of the weakest offenses in the league. Burfict recorded 19 tackles and one sack during those matches.

It’s been an up and down season for the Steelers thus far. They have been alternating good and bad performances all year long. They barely beat the Browns in the season opener, then got a great 26-9 win over the Vikings. They were then shocked by the Bears in overtime, only to rebound nicely with an easy win in Baltimore. They followed that up with a crushing 30-9 loss at home against the Jaguars, a game in which Roethlisberger threw five interceptions. Once again, Pittsburgh came back strong last week by handling the Chiefs their first loss of the season. I’m betting on this trend to continue, as I expect the Bengals to at least keep it close (or even win it).

PICK #3: Cleveland Browns +6 against the Tennessee Titans

I hope the Browns won’t make me regret it like they did against the Jets a few weeks ago, where they basically gave the game away with many bonehead plays. I know, I know, the Browns are 2-31 over their past 33 games (if you can believe that!) so it’s hard to get excited when you are picking them.

The Titans are losing one day of preparation because they were playing last Monday night against the Colts. This week’s game will also mark their third road game over the past four contests (although not back-to-back).

The Browns will try to avenge a 28-26 loss in Tennessee last year. Not only was this game close, but you might be surprised to learn that Cleveland had won the previous two matchups (28-14 at home in 2015, and 29-28 at Tennessee in 2014).

The Titans have a good rushing attack, but Cleveland’s run defense matches up well, as shown by their #1 ranking in terms of rushing yards allowed per attempt (tied with Denver). Also, the #1 overall pick from last year’s draft, defensive end Myles Garrett, will not be limited for the first time since coming back from an injury. He was still able to lead his team with 3 sacks despite missing the first four games of the season and being limited in his first two.

Meanwhile, Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota did not look very mobile in his return from an injury last Monday night, but he should be feeling better this week. The Browns will be going back to DeShone Kizer after benching him last week, while Kevin Hogan threw three interceptions.

PICK #4: Denver Broncos +1 at the Los Angeles Chargers

I like Denver to rebound after a pathetic performance at home on primetime television against a depleted New York Giants team. How could they not be fired up following such a poor outing, especially facing a divisional opponent? Granted, the Chargers won’t take this game lightly either, but they are coming off a big win in Oakland and might not put their foot on the accelerator as much.

The Chargers have lost all of their home games so far this season, going 0-3. Playing at StubHub Center has not felt like home not only because of the record, but also because fans from opposing teams have literally invaded the stadium more often than not. Meanwhile, the Broncos have lost their only road game in 2017 by a 26-16 score in Buffalo.

I’m a bit concerned about Trevor Siemian’s shoulder injury he suffered last week. He is still expected to play, but how much is it bothering him? He will also be without wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders because of an ankle injury. On the Chargers side, running back Melvin Gordon is having a good season with 7 touchdowns in 6 games, but he was limited at Wednesday’s practice because of a shoulder injury.

Much like my first pick, we have a coaching connection worth of note in this game. Denver’s offensive coordinator, Mike McCoy, was the Chargers’ head coach from 2013 to 2016. Denver has other coaches who know Philip Rivers pretty well (like the offensive line coach Jeff Davidson who was with San Diego last year).

PICK #5: Atlanta Falcons +3.5 at the New England Patriots

If you believe in teams being fueled by a desire for revenge, then this pick could not be more perfect for you. Do I need to remind you that the Falcons led last year’s Super Bowl 28-3 in the third quarter before allowing the Patriots to pull off the biggest comeback among all Super Bowl games? Atlanta fans had probably circled that game a long time ago.

On top of that, the Falcons are coming off two consecutive home losses against the Bills and the Dolphins, who certainly don’t qualify as powerhouses. What happened to their high-octane offense? They can’t put the blame on injuries as they have been relatively healthy, except for Julio Jones who has been slowed down by a hip injury but has not missed a full game. Atlanta played without wide receiver Mohamed Sanu last week, but he is expected to return. What better way to get your offense back on track than playing the porous New England defense? They rank 30th out of 32 teams in points allowed, and are dead last in yards allowed per game (way behind the next-to-last team). They have been atrocious.

The Patriots are 4-2 right now, but they lucky their record isn’t worse. They should have lost against the Texans. They could have easily lost against the Bucs. And they were down 14-0 against the Jets last year before rallying once again. It’s not going to work out well every time. I’m betting the Falcons to either win, or keep it very close.

LEAN

I was considering taking the San Francisco 49ers +6 against the Dallas Cowboys, but I decided to stay away. Did you know the Niners are the first team in NFL history to lose five straight games by three points or less? Unbelievable! Many sports bettors put too much emphasis on win-loss records, and will therefore underrate San Francisco based on their 0-6 record. One more argument in favor of the Niners is the fact that Dallas will be travelling two time zones out west. You could also argue this is a sandwich game for the Cowboys after having played an exciting game against the Packers and awaiting divisional opponents Washington next week.

However, a few things play in favor of Dallas. They are coming off their bye week. And they have lost two straight games at home, so I don’t necessarily see them taking this game lightly. Will running back Ezekiel Elliott play or not? His status is unclear. Am I the only person who is sick of hearing about this story week after week?

CONCLUSION

That’s it for this week’s NFL predictions; I hope you found this article insightful. I do my very best to help you grow your bankroll in the long run.

I really want to thank all of you who have been following my work over the past few months. I usually have between 200 and 400 unique visitors on my website every day, but for some reason it went up to 605 yesterday, which is mind-blowing for me! Thank you so much for your support!!

Professor MJ

Professor MJ: NBA Picks (Wednesday October 18)!

Hello NBA fans, we got off to a nice start of the 2017-2018 season by taking the Houston Rockets +9.5 at the Warriors last night. Let’s try to keep it up tonight. Out of the 11 games on the menu, I see three value plays including our first 5 star bet of the season!

PICK #1: Sacramento Kings +8 vs Houston Rockets (rated 5 stars)

The Rockets are coming off a big upset on opening night in Golden State against the defending champions after being down by 13 points through three quarters. The bad news is Chris Paul is dealing with a bruised left knee. Officially, he is “questionable” to play, but coach D’Antoni might decide to play it safe against a weaker opponent, especially playing the second leg of back-to-back games.

Speaking of injuries, George Hill is likely to be in the lineup for the Kings, while the status of Zach Randolph is less clear. Sacramento is not super deep at the power forward position, so they may have to rely on Labissiere and Koufos to pick up the slack in case he cannot go.

The motivation level won’t be nearly as high for the Rockets after such an intense game in Golden State yesterday, so a letdown is possible.

The Kings have missed the playoffs 11 straight years, and they are highly unlikely to end the drought this year. They finished the 2016-2017 season on a good note by going 5-5 over their final 10 games. They lost their two home meetings with the Rockets by 13 and 7-point margins. As a matter of fact, Houston has beaten Sacramento in 12 of the last 13 matchups. However, the games played in Sacramento did not end by wide margins, except the 13-point loss last season.

In summary, I like the Kings mainly based on a possible letdown by the Rockets, the back-to-back games for Houston and the likelihood of Chris Paul being out or limited.

PICK #2: Milwaukee Bucks +3 at Boston Celtics (rated 3 stars)

My statistical models plus my manual adjustments have the Bucks as 1-point favorites. Why? Based on the lines for regular season wins by each team, Milwaukee has a 42.7% chance of beating Boston on a neutral court. I subtracted 8.2% to account for the home-court advantage, which reduces the Bucks’ win probability to 34.5%, or alternatively Boston’s win probability becomes 65.5%.

Let’s now account for injuries. Milwaukee is missing Jabari Parker, while the Celtics are without Marcus Morris and Gordon Hayward who suffered a horrific injury last night. You may or may not agree with my own assessment, but I penalized Boston 5% which brings their win probability down to 60.5%.

We have one final step to do. Based on a Harvard study, a team playing the second of back-to-back games has a probability of winning which is roughly 80% of what it would be if rested. I used this little piece of information throughout the 2016-2017 season and it worked out just fine. In this case: 60.5% * 80% = 48.5%. In other words, Boston becomes a slight underdog.

The Bucks have made few offseason moves and are therefore featuring a similar team. They won’t need time to gel together as they are already familiar with each other. They were a young team that acquired quite a bit of experience from last season. They finished the season with a 16-7 record before losing their first round series against the Raptors in six games.

The money is evenly split on both teams as 52% of spread bets have gone on Milwaukee thus far.

PICK #3: Denver Nuggets +2.5 at Utah Jazz (2 stars)

There are few injuries worth of note in this game. The Nuggets were plagued by many injuries last season, which probably cost them a playoff spot after finishing just one game back of the final and eighth spot. They finished the season strong with a 26-19 record. Nikola Jokic is an underrated star that can do it all on the field. The Nuggets have added Paul Millsap to complement him.

Meanwhile, the Jazz are entering this season without their two leading scorers from last year, Gordon Hayward and George Hill. Only the Grizzlies and the Mavericks scored fewer points per game in 2016-2017. Thankfully, they acquired point guard Ricky Rubio. It will be interesting to see how rookie Donovan Mitchell does coming out of Louisville.

The Jazz have won the last 5 home meetings against the Nuggets. The two teams split the season series last year, each team winning its two home games.

Good luck on your plays!

Professor MJ

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