Explained how to decide where to bet on a real example: Dodgers vs Padres?

A lot of bettors are confused with “THE BEST ODDS” and “THE BOOKMAKER WITH THE BEST ODDS”. Those two things are totally different and we should understand the difference.

THE BEST ODDS

So, what are the best odds? The best odds are those odds, which will give you the best profit. Simply as that. If you want to play on Team A, you will look to get the best price. So, if you have 5 bookmakers accounts and if you want to bet on Team A and the odds are:

  • Bookmaker 1 (bet on Team A): +130 (possible profit for $100 risked = +$130)
  • Bookmaker 2 (bet on Team A): +145 (possible profit for $100 risked = +$145)
  • Bookmaker 3 (bet on Team A): +132 (possible profit for $100 risked = +$132)
  • Bookmaker 4 (bet on Team A): +138 (possible profit for $100 risked = +$138)
  • Bookmaker 5 (bet on Team A): +128 (possible profit for $100 risked = +$128)

You will bet on second bookmaker, because you will get the biggest return for the “same thing”.

BOOKMAKER WITH THE BEST ODDS

But does that mean, that the best odds have always the bookmakers with the lowest juice? NO. It depends on which team you want to bet. A lot of times you will find the best odds on TEAM A with bookmaker 1 and the best odds for TEAM B with bookmaker 4, for example. This has nothing to do with margins and it is recommended to have several bookmakers accounts, so you can always get the best price, which can be the difference between profit and loss at the end of the season.

So, what are the margins?

In a very simple way, this is how much money you lose when you bet. Every bookmaker will take some money, when you bet, for their service, if I can say so. Some bookmakers will take more, some will take less and the general rule is that we like to stick with the bookmakers, that have smallest margins/juice. Because of that, we can expect, that we will get the best price in most cases.

How to calculate margins?

When you have two teams and if bookmakers set the chances at 50-50, the fair odds would be +100 vs +100 (2.00 vs 2.00). Right? But of course, you don’t see this. They will offer you something like -105 vs -105 or -110 vs -110 or something like that. The easiest way to calculate margins is to turn the odds into the percentages, sum them and see how much far is from 100% (easiest explanation):

  • TEAM A: -105 (1.952) turn into the percentages = 1/1.952 = 0.512295082
  • TEAM B: -105 (1.952) turn into the percentages = 1/1.952 = 0.512295082

0.512295082 + 0.512295082 = 1.024590164 = 102.46%

The difference: 102.46% – 100% = 2.46%

You will lose that money every time when you bet. The biggest is this number the worse for you. Simply as that.

LET’S TAKE REALISTIC EXAMPLE AND EXPLANATION WITH TODAY’S GAME

We have a game between the Dodgers and Padres today and we have different prices and different bookmakers. So, the question is where to bet to get the best price for your bet and will this mean, that this bookmaker has the lowest margin?

Here is the table with the odds and margins, plus my projected lines for this game.

THE BOOKMAKER WITH THE LOWEST MARGIN

5DIMES (lowest margin of 1.97%)

5Dimes has the lowest margins and this is one of the bookmakers, that you must have and must play there, because in general, you will have the best odds in most cases. Their margin is just 1.97% in this game, which is by far the best among all those bookmakers. (5DIMES has a Welcome Bonus up to $520 – SIGN UP HERE)

Bet at 5dimes

 

 

THE BEST ODDS IF YOU WANT TO PLAY ON SAN DIEGO?

NITROGENSPORTS at +287 (EU odds = 3.78)

But of course, the lowest margins is not a guarantee if you want to play on your favourite team. Nitrogensports has bigger margins, than 5Dimes in general, but they sacrificed good odds on Dodgers to offer little bit better odds on the San Diego. If you want to bet on Dodgers, Nitrogensports is not the right bookmaker, because you will get better odds on all other bookmakers. But if you want to play on San Diego, Nitrogensports has the best price and this is the place where you should bet them. (And Nitrogensports is my favourite bitcoin bookmaker out there – SIGN UP HERE)

THE BEST ODDS IF YOU WANT TO PLAY ON DODGERS?

LUNARBETS at -227 (EU odds = 1.44)

On the other side if you want to bet on DODGERS, the best price is on Lunarbets. They have second lowest margins, which means, that you will get better odds in general still on 5Dimes, but for this game, if you bet on Dodgers, you must:

  • pay $227 to win $100 on Lunarbets
  • pay $341 to win $100 on Nitrogensports

And you don’t want to pay more for the same thing. Right? (You can SIGN UP on LUNARBETS HERE)

WHAT MY PROJECTED ODDS SAY AND WHAT IS MY PREDICTION?

This is the second game today and in the first game Padres beat the Dodgers, but in this game, Dodgers will have pitching advantage in my opinion.

Jordan Lyles will start this season with first game for Padres, so he will be fresh and in this cases I stay away from bets, because I simply don’t know how he will perform in a new season. I like to see players in new season. So, if I put league average pitcher as a starter for San Diego, I give them around 35.25% of chance to win this game, which is still much less than 50%. My fair odds for San Diego is +184.

Dodgers on the other side will start with Darvish, who has been playing great (177 strikeouts in 160 innings this season) and he already beat San Diego in 2017. With the best NL team behind him, I have projected, that the Dodgers will have around 64.75% of chance. That gives me the odds of around -184.

And where is the value?

The value is with San Diego. I expect, that bookmakers offer the odds of around +184 on San Diego. Nitrogensports offer the odds of +287, which is more than I would expect. I would expect, that I make profit of $184 if I risk $100. But Nitrogensports is willing to pay me $287, which is $103 more than I expect. Because of that there is a value with San Diego.

The question is, are you willing to put a money on a game, that has only 35.25% of chance? On the long run, this is the right thing to do. But if you want to win today, your chances are less than 40%.

I will stay away from this game and I just wanted to show you on real example how important is to bet on “good” bookmakers to get always the best price. Check list of recommended bookmakers here.

And good luck whatever you take in this game.


Bet at 5dimes