My plan to become a millionaire in Sports Betting

I am connected with sports betting betting world since 1998, things changed dramatically since then and the market is bigger than ever. Bookmakers are smarter, bettors are smarter, the world is changing and we must improve all the time if we want to make something good happen in this speculative business…

Bookmakers made a lot of mistakes in the past and a lot of bettors beat them just because of that. They don’t make huge mistakes anymore and with the internet, easy to find information and sharp odds, it looks like it is harder and harder to beat them.

But despite all those things, I think that right now is the best time to become a millionaire.

I made a realistic plan and with little bit luck and a lot of work, discipline and padience, I believe I can become a millionaire in 5 years.

Last couple of months, I was thinking about moving ALL my money to bitcoin bookmakers. I knew, that one day this will happen and we always must adopt to new situation. This is the only way to succeed in this dynamic world, where everything has exponential growth. If you sleep for a moment, you are out.

But still, I didn’t want to completely go away from Pinnacle, 5Dimes and Matchbook, my favourite fiat bookmakers, that still have the best odds.

But then again, if we take into account the general problems with all kind of fiat bookmakers (country restrictions, identity verifications, limiting players,…) I think it was only a matter of time, when I will move all or part of my money to bitcoin bookmakers (NitrogensportsCloudbetLunarbetsSportsbet.io). I will still bet with the best fiat bookmakers, like Pinnacle, which is the best bookmaker in the world and I can still bet there, but if you can not bet at Pinnacle or any other low juice bookmaker, then I think right now is the time to move and make a step forward. (Explained — How to bet with bitcoins)

The idea…

Bitcoin is on the raise and I simply can not miss this huge opportunity. I believe, that if I will bet with bitcoins, I will make money with my betting on sports and also because of bitcoin raise. This will make me a millionaire.

Maybe I succeed, maybe not, but I think I should do it.

The idea and the goal is very simple: to make $1 million in next 5 years with starting bankroll of $4,400, which is today exactly 1 BTC (6/10/2017).

I optimistically expect, that 1 bitcoin will be worth $100,000 in next five years. Bitcoin is the future currency for all of us and it has been very successful story so far. And I think that this is just a beginning. There are couple of predictions, that bitcoin will raise up to $100,000 in next few years (Article 1Article 2Article 3…).

So, what I need is to start with 1 bitcoin in 2017 and then make a profit of 9 bitcoins in next 5 years. With little bit help of crypto market, I will be a millionaire.

The goal is to generate yield of around 3.9% and make around 1000 picks in one year.

Is it possible?

First of all, I don’t have any influence on bitcoin raise. I believe in the future of bitcoin and that’s all I can say. I am also very optimistic person.

So, I will focus on my betting skills. That’s all I can do.

I use predictive models for my sports betting, I don’t guess games (at least most of the times) and based on my past performance, it is possible that I reach this goal.

Since February 4th 2017 to October 5th 2017 I made 1067 picks on baseball and basketball, that were based on my math model (math model is something I will focus on in the future, limiting any gut/intuition/info-based bets):

MLB BETTING MODEL BETS (673 picks):

  • Period: April — September 2017
  • Profit: +4,109
  • YTD: 338–316–19
  • AVG ODDS: 2.04
  • Yield: +3.17%

BASKETBALL BETTING MODEL BETS (394 picks):

  • Period: February — May 2017
  • Profit: +3,264
  • YTD: 237–150–7
  • AVG ODDS: 1.91
  • Yield: +14.14%

The yield is way bigger than 3.9% and this is based on more than 1000 picks. So, YES I believe — it is possible and I will do my best. I don’t set unrealistic goal of 15% yield or +100% every year, but some realistic small growth.

Strategy?

Strategy and patience in sports betting is more important than most people think. When you have the goal and strategy, you don’t care about daily losses, even monthly losses. You can simply focus on your analysis and the results will come.

There is no such thing as overnight success or easy money. And becoming a millionaire will not be an easy task, I hope we all agree with it. But I can also promise myself, that I will do my best and hopefully, reach this goal.

The strategy question for me was: Flat or Progressive (proportional)?

The idea of FLAT strategy is: Start with 1 BTC and use 1% (0.01 BTC) as one unit whole year, no matter if your bankroll raise or goes down. After one year, reorganise bankroll and recalculate 1% again.

The idea of PROGRESSIVE (proportional) strategy is: Start with 1 BTC and recalculate 1% of current bankroll every day. If bankroll goes up, the bets are bigger ad vice versa.

In 2017 on my MLB bets, flat was better option, but the number of picks was also smaller. On the long run, progressive (proportional) will outperform flat, but it is is also a strategy with bigger ups and downs.

I think both strategies are good and I think I could succeed with both strategies. My calculations are made by flat, which has little bit lower results on the long run.

Here is the comparison of two strategies and as you see, at some point, if I can make a profit, progressive will outperform the flat.

What Sports will I bet?


Most of my bets will be from MLB baseball, NHL ice hockey and basketball. I will use predictive models and daily analysis for all my bets.

You can watch my daily analysis on my youtube channel — here.

I have the most experience with MLB, basketball has the best results in 2017 and NHL is a sport, where I can make a lot of profit, but I also struggle sometimes. But I believe that with combination of all three I can reach the goal.

Where will I bet?

NITROGENSPORTS — this is my first choice for MLB and NHL bets. Around 50% of all my money will be on this bookmaker. Safe, reliable, very good limits and very good odds compared to Pinnacle or 5Dimes and if you want to bet with me. Create account now at Nitrogensports

CLOUDBET — Best for my basketball bets, because they have the lowest basketball margins. Around 30% of all my money will be on this bookmaker. Cloudbet also has the best Welcome bonus (up to 5 BTC, cca $21,000). Create account now and get up to 5BTC at Cloudbet!

SPORTSBET.IO — this is the bookmaker with the best promotions every week. If you want to combine bets with other sports, like soccer/football, than this is a very good option. I will have around 10% of my bankroll and will try to get the best odds. Create account now at Sportsbet.io

LUNARBETS — this is a new bookmaker and they have the best odds and the lowest margins. If they can keep good work, I see them as a new Pinnacle of bitcoin bookmakers. They are young bookmaker, they are specialised in sports betting and e-sports and I will have around 20% money there. Sign Up Now and create account

How can you follow my progress?

  1. Email every day — SIGN UP HERE (100% free) (My personal bets are sent daily on emails. This is the best way to follow my picks. After you sign up for 5-day free betting course, you will be put on email list and you will get my picks every day into your email inbox. You can unsubscribe at anytime.)
  2. Daily Video (I rather record daily videos than write previews. In daily video I comment NHL/MLB games with my projected lines. A lot of time I speak about strategy, my sports betting life, etc. You can subscribe on youtube channel and you will have an access to my bets.
  3. Visit Underdogchance.com site every day (You can also check this page every day and the picks will be under My Bets section before the games starts.)
  4. MEMBERSHIP AREA — buy my online betting course, where I teach you how I use simple statistics and estimate the numbers in sports betting. Plus unlimited access to all exclusive content in membership area. Note also, that members get my picks immediately after I bet, because of odds dropping.

Will I succeed?

I don’t know. Our whole life is a game of risks and returns. Invest in your education and maybe you fail. Invest time and money to open a restaurant and maybe you fail. Go to the street and maybe you will be hit by a car. Our whole life is a combination of probabilities and risks. We don’t have influence on every thing.

Because of that, we must focus on things, that we can control.

If you have a goal, if you have a plan, if you commit, that you will work hard, if you are patient and if you have some skill, the luck usually also comes. Luck always favours the brave. And you must remember that brave are the people who take chances in life. This is how successful stories are made.

I have a goal, I have a plan and I work hard. I have some betting skills too and I have my betting models. Luck is not a factor on the long run, but I will believe in small luck with crypto market, where I don’t have any influence. Let’s see if I can become a millionaire.

MB, Underogchance.com

MY BETTING MODEL AND HOW I BET BASEBALL

A lot of people asked me what is the best sport to bet and my answer is always the same – baseball. Bookmakers are very smart and they know how to attract bettors with all kind of promotions and other bonuses and they also know very well psychology of bettors and gamblers. They know how to attract them and a lot of people will fall into this trap. They will bet on sports, that they like to watch, not to invest. Of course NFL is great to watch, but from investing point I think, that there is no sport that is close to MLB.

Keep reading and I will explain, why I think baseball is the best sport to bet and how I bet on baseball.

Why I bet baseball?

The most popular sport in USA is NFL. There is 32 teams, that play 256 games in one season. Regular season starts in September and ends at the start of January.

Let’s take a look how much money can make one very good sports bettor in one regular NFL season if he plays every single game (1 game = 1 bet, spread for example). Let’s take an example, that he is very good and he will reach yield of 10% (some people call it ROI).

  • 256 games * $1000 = $256,000 risked money
  • Yield 10%: 0.1*$256,000 = $25,600

Very good NFL bettor will make $25,600 of profit if he plays every single game and if he is very good.

On the other side, take example of a very good MLB bettor, with the same yield and if he also bet on every single game in regular MLB season.

One regular MLB season has 2430 games and if we take that he bet on every single game (1 bet = 1 game).

  • 2430 games * $1000 = $2,4300,000 risked money
  • Yield 10%: 0.1*$2,4300,00 =$243,000 of profit

Very good MLB bettor will make $243,000 of profit, which is close to 10 times more than NFL bettor.

Of course reaching yield of 10% playing all NFL and MLB games is not possible, but I wanted to show you that potential in baseball is much bigger. Every day we have 10-15 games and if you are prepared to work hard on MLB analysis, I think there is no other sport that has so many opportunities.

There are also couple of other key reasons, why I bet baseball:

  • Huge market: This is not second league in voleyball, where the lines move quickly and where the limits are low. MLB is one of the biggest markets in sports betting world and in average you can bet much more than on any other smaller leagues.
  • Statistics: I am investor, not a gambler and I can not bet without analysis and without any statistics. Even if I made some intuition plays, I look first at the numbers. Statistics is very important for me. Baseball is sport with the biggest information about statistics. And we all know, that statistics and analytics is most important when it comes to predicting the future results. All successful businesses us it and I am huge believer, that traditional handicapping without analytics will be dead soon too. So, when you have a lot of data, you can also make better predictions and analysis. It is much easier to analyse a sport with 2430 games and data sets, than only 256. I hope you agree with me.
  • Underdogs: An average bettor is afraid to bet on underdogs. I think the main reason for that is because most bettors bet huge proportion of their bankroll (if they have one) and they are basically in a must-win situation every day. Underdogs in general are the teams, that has less than 50% of chance and of course they don’t want to be in a must-win situation, that has less than 50% of chance. Usually public is heavily with favourites and usually public lose a lot too. But in MLB baseball league the difference between the best team and the worst team is not that big. The best teams will win around 60% of games and the worst teams will still win around 40% of games. There is a lot of underdog wins every day and because of that a lot of chance for us, who are looking for the value, not for the winners.
How I bet baseball?

Most of my plays are moneyline bets. I don’t bet special bets and I rarely play totals. I stick with high limits bets, where I can invest more money. But before I answer on this question, let’s explain couple of other things, that are important.

One baseball game is one EVENT, right? And every event has two outcomes:

  • Home win
  • Away win

Every outcome has some probability or if you like – Team A has a chance that will win this game and Team B has a chance to win this game.

Bookmakers estimate those probabilities and then they turn those probabilities into the odds (plus some margin of course)

At the same time, I use my my MLB BASEBALL BETTING MODEL, that I reveal and teach you in my online betting course called A Journey.

I simply estimate my own probabilities and then I turn those probabilities into the odds.

So, what are the odds? The odds are the prices, that you will pay when you bet.

So, for example if I estimate, that Boston Red Sox have a chance of 56.44% to win a game versus NY Yankees, my fair odds would be 1.77 (US odds: -130). In this case I expect, that when I bet $1000 on Red Sox, bookmakers would pay me $770 for Red Sox win. And based on this number I decide if I will bet this game or not.

If bookmakers set the odds on Boston Red Sox 1.60 (US odds: -167), I will get only $600 if my bet (Red Sox) wins. In this case I was expecting at least $770 of profit, but I get only $600. And this is not a value for me. I would stay away from this game.

On the other side if bookmakers set the odds of 2.1 (US odds: +110) on Boston Red Sox, I would get $1100 of profit, which is $330 more than I would expect. And this is something I call it a value. In this case I would bet on Red Sox, because I get more for my money.

The value is something you face it every day. When you go to a store and you see two jackets, totally same quality and you like them equally, the logical decision would be to buy cheaper one. Why? Because you get more for the same money. And if you will do this constantly, you will save money. If you will look for the value constantly in sports betting, you will make a profit.

Bullpen and statistics is important!

There are two very big mistakes by bettors, that can not make a profit in baseball:

They use main stream statistics, found on ESPN, Yahoo and other main stream sites: One nice example is ERA, that is probably most popular statistics in baseball and most bettors will rely only it. ERA will show you how many runs one pitcher (or a team) allows per 9 innings. The problem with ERA is that is not the best future predictor. Much better are some other like FIP, xFIP, SIERA, whip, …

They ignore bullpen: The average pitcher will pitch around 5.5 innings per game. The game has 9 innings and most bettors simply ignore big part of the game (cca 38% of game) and this is the late game, where the game will be decided.

I don’t use main stream statistics and I pay special attention to bullpen too, because the game is usually decided by bullpens.

How I estimate odds?

I use my PREDICTIVE MODEL to project my own odds and probabilities for every single game in MLB season. The idea is to compare teams offence with other teams defence, which is combination of starting pitcher and bullpen.

When baseball season is on, I analyse every single game. Every day I calculate win% with the right starting pitcher and the formulas in the model, that I have created for baseball. Most of my data is automated and automatically pulled from the internet.

I just type:

  • The name of the team
  • Pitcher and his hand

And the model outputs winning percentages and my projected odds. Then I use Kelly criterium to estimate the optimal bet size.

Money Management

Baseball betting requires extreme discipline, expert money management and constant analysis and research.

I can teach you how to analyse games, how to create and use betting model, but there is also one other part that we all must fight on a daily basis: Work and discipline.

I use proportional money management, I call it progressive. Most of my bets are 1-2% of my current bankroll (I use adjusted Kelly criterium to estimate the bet size). Every day I re-calculate the stake. Why? Because on the long run, progressive (proportional) will outperform flat strategy.

Is it ideal or better than flat?

No, I wouldn’t say so and in fact flat outperformed progressive in 2017. Progressive strategy will outperform flat strategy on the long run, but the results will come after very big number of picks. It will also has much bigger ups and downs and many bettors don’t have the nerves and patience to bet like this. To recover after loss takes more time too. At some point you can also not bet this way, because bookmakers could limit you.

However, both money managements are good and I would not recommend any other money management. More important than this is that you stick with 1-2% on most bets.

Intuition vs Analytics

Statistics and analytics is more and more important. This is something that I always repeat and in the world of dynamic sports betting, following other people’s picks is not the smartest idea. So, if you get the odds of 1.91 (-110) or 2.00 (+100) is a big difference and it can be the line between losing and winning. This is why I think, that estimating the numbers and betting on your own is very important.

But still I see a lot of handicappers, that say, that they have “good info” and “experience”. Of course this can not work on the long run. Good info is easy to find with the internet and intuition, which is basically some sort of experience can not be measured. Because of that a lot of bettors and also some old successful bettors can no longer make a profit.

The good example for me was a 2017 season, when I made 738 picks. 65 picks was made by my intuition, that means, that I didn’t follow my math model. In the past I made a lot of profit with some extraordinary “so-called” intuition plays, but the times are changing. At least for me. Why? Because in 2017 I made -3185 units of loss on my intuition plays. At the same time I made 673 picks that were based on my math model and I made profit of +4,109 units on MLB baseball picks.

How do I know which is my intuition bet and bet that was supported by my math model? Because I tracked all bets and I wanted to see what are my results based on my model and my intuition. This is why I mark Intuition plays as GUT PLAYS (G) and my math model plays with (M)

HERE ARE ALL MY BETS IN 2017: DOWNLOAD MY MLB RESULTS

Chart 1: All bets (including Intuition bets) vs Betting Model bets

ALL BETS (including intuition bets): Profit: +924, WON 358 LOST: 357 PUSH 23 AVG odds 2.05 (+105), Yield: +0.67% Total Picks: 738

BETTING MODEL BETS: Profit: +4,109 WON 338 LOST 316 PUSH 19 AVG ODDS: 2.04 , Yield: 3.17% Total Picks: 673

Performance with different odds

In previous chart I showed you how important is to use analytics and my intuition bets were disastrous. On the other side my model has an edge and I made a profit.

So I went little bit deeper to see what results my model has with the different odds and I found that the best yield would be if I would play the odds between 1.80 and 2.20. But then again, I would play less games and I would make less profit. So I also wanted to see what is the odds range with the best profit and the most profit I made with the odds between 1.75 and 2.85.

Chart 2: Betting Model vs Adjusted Betting Model

Chart 3: All Bets vs Adjusted Betting Model

Flat vs Kelly Criterium

I use kelly criteirum to estimate my bet size. In a very simple explanation, when I see bigger value, I bet more and when the value is lower, I bet less. Or if you like, when the difference between my odds and bookmakers odds is bigger in my favour, I bet more and when the difference is smaller I bet less.

I wanted to see MODEL performance in the difference between flat strategy, where I would ignore kelly criterium and actual betting (with Kelly Criterium).

The average bet size was 1.777 units/game, so I couldn’t use 1 unit for flat, because the profit would be lower with flat analysis, right? This is why I use 1.777 units/game for flat analysis. I also didn’t take proportion strategy for this comparison.

FLAT STRATEGY (1.777 Units/game):

ACTUAL KELLY CRITERIUM STRATEGY:

As you see, both methods would make a profit with my model, but still if I use kelly criterium, when I estimate actual bet size has better results.

How much money would you make using this model in 2017?

I can not imagine sports betting without using analytics anymore. My MLB Betting Model is the heart of my sports betting.

Why?

Because I estimate the winning percentages for the games and then I calculate my own odds. This is the only way I see how to beat a bookmakers.

But there is a big difference between some systems and betting models. Systems are not betting models. Systems usually use some bettors, when they try to find the edge with different odds, different stakes, etc… But they don’t estimate winning percentages or spreads for games. So we can not call this as a betting model, but more as a system. And there is not one system that works on the long run.

With my model, I look at each game independently and I see one game as one event, where I estimate probabilities for outcomes.

If you used my math model and if you stick strictly with model, you would make a profit with combination of  progressive strategy and my adjusted Kelly Criterium you would make:

  • 673 Picks
  • 338 Wins
  • 316 Losses
  • 19 Pushes
  • +$4109
  • +3.17% of yield

If you used my math model and if you stick strictly with model, you would make a profit with combination of flat (not proportional) strategy and my adjusted Kelly Criterium and if you are $100 bettor you would make:

  • 673 Picks
  • 338 Wins
  • 316 Losses
  • 19 Pushes
  • +77.64 Profit
  • +6.49% of yield

Despite progressive will outperform flat on the long run, if you used flat strategy with combination of Kelly criterium for bet size, that was the best option in 2017.

I always recommend, that if you are $100 bettor (1 unit = $100), then you must have $10,000 of starting bankroll. In this case you would make +$7,764 of profit. Or in other words, if your starting investment is $10,000 at the start of MLB season, your ROI (return on investment) at the end of the season would be +77.64%.

If you played the odds between 1.75 and 2.85, then you would make +$10,520 of profit.

Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day; teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.

When I decided to run this site, I also decided, that I will not sell picks. Focusing on picks is wrong and we all must and can write our own successful sports betting story.

If you pay for picks, you will pay from $100 up to $1000 per month for their picks. Maybe you win, maybe you lose, most bettors don’t have any edge anyway and nobody can guarantee winning month or even a season.

When we take into account odds dropping and how hard is to follow other people’s picks on a daily basis, the only way to make money is to learn how to bet on your own.

I don’t give you picks, I show you how to make a picks. I reveal my MLB betting model. I teach you how to create one. This is exactly the same that I use for myself.

LEARN MORE

Where to bet NFL and how much money you lose in one season if you pick a wrong bookmaker?

Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots will open new NFL season tomorrow and there will be a lot of betting action whole season. Every season is a new season, new opportunity and we all start from the beginning. Some bettors or investors, if you like will be prepared for this season with strategy, betting methods and all kind of power rankings, but many of them will ignore one important thing – right bookmaker.
——–
So, I wanted to show you on real example how important is to select a good bookmaker and how much money you can lose if you ignore this. The average bettor will say, that he doesn’t care if the odds are -105 or -108 or -110, he just want the winners. And of course, this is wrong.
——
I will show you on real example, that the difference between two same handicappers, with same skill and same results can be huge only because of one thing – bookmaker.
 ——-

MARGINS/JUICE

NFL is very popular in USA and this is why I focused on bookmakers, that accept US players, so there is no excuse, that you pick a wrong bookmaker.
 ——
The first thing I wanted to know is how much money will bookmaker take from you when you bet. Every time when you bet, they take some small piece of cake. Some bookmakers will take more, some less and I wanted to see how much will they take from. Of course your goal is to pick that one, that will take less money, right?
 —
In the table below I picked 8 bookmakers and calculated the margins. The bigger is the number the more money they take from you. This is not hard to calculate. Just divide 1 by the odds and sum both numbers. If you have the odds 1.92 vs 1.86, then:
1/1.92 = 0.5208 = 52.08%
1/1.86= 0.5376 = 53.76%
52.08% + 53.76% = 105.84%
105.84% – 100% = 5.84%
I checked websites and took the odds right there – no betting portals or odds comparison sites. Then I calculated margins to see, which bookmaker has the lowest and which bookmaker has the highest margins. Then I took the average for moneylines, spread and the totals.
 ——-
As you see, the lowest margins has the Nitrogensports and right next to them is Cloudbet and Lunarbets.
 ——-

HOW MUCH YOU LOSE IF YOU DON’T CARE ABOUT BOOKMAKERS?

 —–
I know a lot of bettors will say, that this is just small difference and that this is not important. But are they right?
 —-
So I took those average margins and I wanted to see what are the results on 512 picks during the season. Let’s say, that we have 2 bets on every single game (spread or totals or moneyline). 256 regular season games * 2 bets = 512 bets
 —-
And let’s say that we have 8 handicappers with same skill, same knowledge, same ability to pick winners,… let’s say, that they will make the same number of picks during NFL season and that they will have the same record.
 —
Do you think, that they will all make profit? NO WAY!
Table below shows different profits on different bookmakers if handicappers have the same record (1 unit per play).
At the end I compare $100 bettor versus $500 bettor versus $1000 bettor and how much money they lose if they pick wrong bookmaker.
If the handicapper decided to play all games on Nitrogensports, he will make a profit with the record of 263-249 (51.37%). On the other side some other handicapper needs to be much better to make profit if he plays at Youwager, for example. If he wins 5 bets more, he will still have negative record.
 —–
And what that means if we turn this into real money?
 ——
Let’s say that we have 8 really good handicappers, who will have outstanding season and will have the record of 297-215 (58%.00) at the end of the season.
 ——
If they are $100 bettors and if they have exactly the same record, the guy who will play on Nitrogensports will make $1,247 more than the handicapper, who chose to play whole season on Youwager.
 —-
If they are $500 bettors and if they have exactly the same record, the guy who will play on Nitrogensports will make $6,236 more than the handicapper, who chose to play whole season on Youwager.
 —–
If they are $500 bettors and if they have exactly the same record, the guy who will play on Nitrogensports will make $12,474 more than the handicapper, who chose to play whole season on Youwager.
 —-

I ASK YOU ONE MORE TIME, IS IT IMPORTANT IF YOU LOSE $10,000?

 —-
Losing $12,474 or $1,247 or even only $100 every season is not a joke. And if you lose money just because you bet on wrong place, this is very bad. Bad seasons will come, sometimes we will lose more games in a row, sometimes we will make less profit than we would expect. All those things will happen and sometimes we can not do anything about it. But do not lose money because of bookmakers, sports betting is hard job anyway, don’t make it harder because of that.
 —–

WILL BOOKMAKER WITH THE LOWEST MARGINS ALWAYS HAVE THE BEST ODDS?

 —
No.
 —
It is crucial to understand the difference between the best odds and the bookmaker with the best odds (Read here). And you also must to understand, that every bookmaker has pros and cons. Some will have higher limits, some lower, some will offer great welcome bonuses, etc..
 —

SO, WHERE TO BET NFL?

If we talk about the bookmakers with lowest margins and if we talk about how to make more money with the same record, then I think the best bookmakers are:

NITROGENSPORTS

CLOUDBET

LUNARBETS

Those three are bitcoin bookmakers and they are already better then most traditional (fiat) bookmakers in every aspect. If you are new with bitcoins, you can read here how to bet with bitcoins – here.
I hope this was helpful and you decide where you will bet. You know how to calculate margins/juice now, be smart and don’t give away your money.  I wish you successful NFL season.
MB

Explained how to decide where to bet on a real example: Dodgers vs Padres?

A lot of bettors are confused with “THE BEST ODDS” and “THE BOOKMAKER WITH THE BEST ODDS”. Those two things are totally different and we should understand the difference.

THE BEST ODDS

So, what are the best odds? The best odds are those odds, which will give you the best profit. Simply as that. If you want to play on Team A, you will look to get the best price. So, if you have 5 bookmakers accounts and if you want to bet on Team A and the odds are:

  • Bookmaker 1 (bet on Team A): +130 (possible profit for $100 risked = +$130)
  • Bookmaker 2 (bet on Team A): +145 (possible profit for $100 risked = +$145)
  • Bookmaker 3 (bet on Team A): +132 (possible profit for $100 risked = +$132)
  • Bookmaker 4 (bet on Team A): +138 (possible profit for $100 risked = +$138)
  • Bookmaker 5 (bet on Team A): +128 (possible profit for $100 risked = +$128)

You will bet on second bookmaker, because you will get the biggest return for the “same thing”.

BOOKMAKER WITH THE BEST ODDS

But does that mean, that the best odds have always the bookmakers with the lowest juice? NO. It depends on which team you want to bet. A lot of times you will find the best odds on TEAM A with bookmaker 1 and the best odds for TEAM B with bookmaker 4, for example. This has nothing to do with margins and it is recommended to have several bookmakers accounts, so you can always get the best price, which can be the difference between profit and loss at the end of the season.

So, what are the margins?

In a very simple way, this is how much money you lose when you bet. Every bookmaker will take some money, when you bet, for their service, if I can say so. Some bookmakers will take more, some will take less and the general rule is that we like to stick with the bookmakers, that have smallest margins/juice. Because of that, we can expect, that we will get the best price in most cases.

How to calculate margins?

When you have two teams and if bookmakers set the chances at 50-50, the fair odds would be +100 vs +100 (2.00 vs 2.00). Right? But of course, you don’t see this. They will offer you something like -105 vs -105 or -110 vs -110 or something like that. The easiest way to calculate margins is to turn the odds into the percentages, sum them and see how much far is from 100% (easiest explanation):

  • TEAM A: -105 (1.952) turn into the percentages = 1/1.952 = 0.512295082
  • TEAM B: -105 (1.952) turn into the percentages = 1/1.952 = 0.512295082

0.512295082 + 0.512295082 = 1.024590164 = 102.46%

The difference: 102.46% – 100% = 2.46%

You will lose that money every time when you bet. The biggest is this number the worse for you. Simply as that.

LET’S TAKE REALISTIC EXAMPLE AND EXPLANATION WITH TODAY’S GAME

We have a game between the Dodgers and Padres today and we have different prices and different bookmakers. So, the question is where to bet to get the best price for your bet and will this mean, that this bookmaker has the lowest margin?

Here is the table with the odds and margins, plus my projected lines for this game.

THE BOOKMAKER WITH THE LOWEST MARGIN

5DIMES (lowest margin of 1.97%)

5Dimes has the lowest margins and this is one of the bookmakers, that you must have and must play there, because in general, you will have the best odds in most cases. Their margin is just 1.97% in this game, which is by far the best among all those bookmakers. (5DIMES has a Welcome Bonus up to $520 – SIGN UP HERE)

Bet at 5dimes

 

 

THE BEST ODDS IF YOU WANT TO PLAY ON SAN DIEGO?

NITROGENSPORTS at +287 (EU odds = 3.78)

But of course, the lowest margins is not a guarantee if you want to play on your favourite team. Nitrogensports has bigger margins, than 5Dimes in general, but they sacrificed good odds on Dodgers to offer little bit better odds on the San Diego. If you want to bet on Dodgers, Nitrogensports is not the right bookmaker, because you will get better odds on all other bookmakers. But if you want to play on San Diego, Nitrogensports has the best price and this is the place where you should bet them. (And Nitrogensports is my favourite bitcoin bookmaker out there – SIGN UP HERE)

THE BEST ODDS IF YOU WANT TO PLAY ON DODGERS?

LUNARBETS at -227 (EU odds = 1.44)

On the other side if you want to bet on DODGERS, the best price is on Lunarbets. They have second lowest margins, which means, that you will get better odds in general still on 5Dimes, but for this game, if you bet on Dodgers, you must:

  • pay $227 to win $100 on Lunarbets
  • pay $341 to win $100 on Nitrogensports

And you don’t want to pay more for the same thing. Right? (You can SIGN UP on LUNARBETS HERE)

WHAT MY PROJECTED ODDS SAY AND WHAT IS MY PREDICTION?

This is the second game today and in the first game Padres beat the Dodgers, but in this game, Dodgers will have pitching advantage in my opinion.

Jordan Lyles will start this season with first game for Padres, so he will be fresh and in this cases I stay away from bets, because I simply don’t know how he will perform in a new season. I like to see players in new season. So, if I put league average pitcher as a starter for San Diego, I give them around 35.25% of chance to win this game, which is still much less than 50%. My fair odds for San Diego is +184.

Dodgers on the other side will start with Darvish, who has been playing great (177 strikeouts in 160 innings this season) and he already beat San Diego in 2017. With the best NL team behind him, I have projected, that the Dodgers will have around 64.75% of chance. That gives me the odds of around -184.

And where is the value?

The value is with San Diego. I expect, that bookmakers offer the odds of around +184 on San Diego. Nitrogensports offer the odds of +287, which is more than I would expect. I would expect, that I make profit of $184 if I risk $100. But Nitrogensports is willing to pay me $287, which is $103 more than I expect. Because of that there is a value with San Diego.

The question is, are you willing to put a money on a game, that has only 35.25% of chance? On the long run, this is the right thing to do. But if you want to win today, your chances are less than 40%.

I will stay away from this game and I just wanted to show you on real example how important is to bet on “good” bookmakers to get always the best price. Check list of recommended bookmakers here.

And good luck whatever you take in this game.


Bet at 5dimes

5 Facts about Sports Betting that Betting Services Don’t Want You to Know

I received a message on a Facebook:

“I got 3–0 tonight. Are you ready to make money?”

I usually don’t answer such messages on Facebook. I also don’t take such messages seriously, but I was curious and I was in that mood, where I said myself, let’s see what kind of nonsense will this guy try to sell me.

Why nonsense? Because there is no such a thing as a “3–0 tonight” or “guaranteed bets”, if you like. Anyone with little bit knowledge about sports betting knows, that the odds are simply probabilities turned into the odds and if there is one event, that has 100% of chance, bookmakers would never ever offer such a bet. So, talking about 3–0 night or guaranteed things in sports betting is little bit crazy. But this is a topic for another time….

So, I answered just for fun and curious to see what is coming: “YES, I AM READY!”

The guy answered: “I am 5–0 in last 5. I am going for 8 in a row.”

By the way, the guy went 2–1 that day, but this is not important, because the worst handicapper can go 8–0 and the best handicapper can go 0–8 on any day. Of course, we can also discuss about the average odds and the probabilities here, but if we stick with -110 odds, this can and will happen on the long run to anyone.

I quickly answered: “This is a luck”

He said: “No. It is a skill”

So, I asked him: “Show me the results of last 1000 picks”

He answered: “840–160”

I started laughing and asked him to send me detailed results in a sheet, so I can check it. Of course he didn’t have.

He closed his account right after our conversation.

But after that, his friend started conversation with me. For me they looked like a team. He was very friendly and he said, that they are top betting service in Las Vegas, who work with top clients.

Ok, so I asked him: “Can you show me the results if you are so good? I don’t ask you future bets, I ask you just past results with the odds, stakes, games and risk compared to bankroll”

I spent exactly 56 minutes and he didn’t show me any results. He said, that he will show me results if I come to his office in Vegas and if I pay. Why should I pay for past results?? if I want to buy a Mercedes today, I want to know how fast it is, right?

What is the problem with past results?

I understand, that if you sell picks, that you will not show me future picks. That is totally ok. But why you don’t show past results? Last 1000 picks at least if you claim, that you have clients, that bet $20.000 per bet? To build a business, where you sell one advice for $1000 or something like that, I expect detailed results with yield, detailed risks, odds, bookmakers, etc for at least 5000 picks from last 5–10 years.

But of course, the guy didn’t have any results and this is how I realised, that most of those services make money with the SERVICE, not actual BETTING. And believe me, they are making huge money.

So, how is this possible, that there are people, that will buy a Mercedes without knowing how fast it is? And what are the things, that betting services know and don’t want that foolish people will ever understand.

Hiding the results

I am from Europe and I am amazed how good are American handicappers with hiding the results. If you go to a random betting site from Europe, there is a big chance, that they will have detailed results with the yield, ROI, odds ad everything else, but if you go to random betting site in USA, they will hide most details. In best cases you get “W-L record” and “profit” for current season, which is nothing. Nothing.

I was talking with couple of US handicappers and most of them are very friendly. But when it comes to past results, I hardly find any US handicapper, that sell picks, that has detailed past results (yield, ROI, avg odds, risks compared to bankroll, bookmakers,…), which can he send you right away in csv file.

Most of them jump from betting site to betting site, where they share their picks and when they change 10 different betting/monitoring sites, of course they will win somewhere. But we are not talking about how to win at competition, but about last 1000 picks in a csv file, so you can calculate for yourself what is ROI, yield, what was money management,….

And then decide if it is worth to pay for the pick.

I am also surprised, that monitoring sites don’t calculate yield, bookmakers info, starting bankroll,…. For me the record of 240–215, +32.15 is nothing. To make final conclusion before you pay for the picks, you need more information.

Line Movement

The odds are the key for sports betting, right? If you make a play or not, the odds will decide. I hope you agree with me. It’s not about who will win, but about the right price or the value if you like. In other words, if you think, that one game is 50–50 and the bookmakers will offer the odds of +130, you will play this team. if they will offer -130, you will not play this team. Right?

So, what most betting services will not tell you is the line movement, that will happen for sure. If you bet online, you know, that if you bet little bit bigger amount of money, the line will move. And now imagine if you have 100 clients and if they all bet $1000. And you are 87th who will place the bet. What do you think will be your price?

Do you think, that the price is not important?

50% of bets on +101 = profit

50% of bets on -101 = loss

Price is the key and you will get lower price on good bets in most cases.

Bookmakers Limits and taking into account the cost of the service

If you bet online, bookmakers have their limits and they will not let you to beat them. Most of them. So, if you pay for one pick $25, how much starting money you need to have and how to take this into account?

If you bet $100 on a game, you need to have around $5.000-$10.000 of starting bankroll. Betting small amount of your bankroll is important and this is a topic for next time. Online bookmakers will allow you to bet usually not more than $5000 (Bovada, 5Dimes,…) per bet. Usually $1000 and if you beat them constantly you will get into the trouble. But to bet $1000 per game, you need around $50.000 — $100.000 to invest properly.

Here is an example:

If you bet $100 on a game and if you pay $25 for one pick (this price I see all over the internet), which is small compared to prices in Vegas, your odds are lowered. And here is how.

Bet $100 on the odds of +100 and if you win, you make profit of $100. Right? When you take into account, that you paid for the advice $25, then you basically made only $75 of profit. That means, that you risk $100 and you won only $75.

What if we turn this into the odds?

What are the odds, when you win $75 by risking $100?

-133. So you basically don’t bet $100 on a game with the odds of +100, but -133. And the results?

Here is what happen:

As you see, betting service can claim, that they make +6000 units of profit with win% of 56 (this is almost not possible on odds of +100 on the long run, but is good for our example) and at the same time, you will make a loss, because you take into account the cost of the service.

When you take into account the results and the cost of the service, betting services usually can not reach such a winning percentage. This is also one of the reasons, why they hide or don’t show complete results (with yield for example). This is also one of the reasons, why most betting sites, monitoring sites hide all the details about picks. “W-L” record and “Profit in Units” is flawless. Simply as that.

Nobody is guru. Nobody is number 1 in the country

They all claim, that they are number one in country. Betting competitions are not realistic. With competitions you don’t need to deal with bookmakers limits, with dropping odds right away, with your own discipline, etc…. And in most cases you have unlimited bankroll and you can leave when you want. In real life if you work couple of months for your bankroll, this is not a joke and this is definitely not a unlimited bankroll. So, the things are quite different, right? Betting competitions are not realistic. Simply as that.

Betting gurus does not exist. Sports betting is a game of numbers. It is a game of analytics. If you are smart enough and you have some math background with combination of love for the sport, you can succeed. If not, you will probably lose. You are not born with “betting skill”.

Things are changing quickly, bookmakers are smarter and smarter and if you won a competition in 1997 and you are not willing to learn new things, you are out. Intuition and experience are nice. But they should be taken together with facts. And analytics is all about that. Either you are smart and work hard, either you lose. Don’t buy “guru” stories in 2017, be smart.

Most services make most of the money with service, not actual betting

Sports betting is not easy. To beat bookmakers today you must use analytics to find the edge, you must play on bookmakers, that will accept your bets, you must have strong money management, you must be very disciplined,…. and even if you are successful with all those things, there is a chance that you will not make money at some point.

But if you sell picks, you need only two things: A lot of foolish people + good marketing. Why bother with statistical analysis if you can make much more money selling picks.

I can guarantee you — most betting services make most money with selling picks, not with actual betting on sports. A lot of them don’t even bet. This was confirmed to me personally from someone, who runs successful sports betting service in USA.

Cheers,

MB, Underdogchance.com

Sports Betting Impossible: Learn how to lose and you will win!

“Your picks are shit. Everyone has good and bad runs…you been cold lately”

Those are the words from guy yesterday, who is obviously following me and it gave me an idea to write this article.

The funny part is that I am not even on a cold streak now. I was cold at the beginning of the MLB season, but not now. Just working hard every day to beat bookmaker with no big ups and downs. So, if there is anyone, who thinks that this is a cold run, then how he survives the real cold streaks?

In sports betting we always like to talk about runs, even me. Because there are days, months even a seasons, when you do not make a profit and there are days, months and even a seasons, when everything is perfect and you have the feeling that you can win anything. Not only in sports betting, but also in life.

But what are runs anyway?

Runs are just short term period results and you must to learn how to survive. Most bettors will not survive on the long run. And the funny thing is that they even maybe have 70% of “good runs” but they will not know how to survive one or two bad runs. Panic, angriness, betting too much,…

To explain this I will show you the chart of the Bitcoins since the beginning and my sports betting chart which motivates that gentleman to tell me, that my sports betting picks are shit. And don’t get me wrong, I don’t sell picks – I share them for free on my site.

If you invested $100 in Bitcoins in 2010, you would have $72 Million now

What do you think, was this a good investment?

Of course it was. Probably one of the best investments you could make in past years. I don’t believe, that there is anyone who would not like to have $72 Million.

But do you think, that there were no bad runs and good runs? Let’s check the chart:

A – Winning is easy. Anyone can win. So if you bought Bitcoins and if you believed in this investment, you would not panic and you would have now a lot of money.

B – Of course most people would start investing in Bitcoins when the price went up.

C – And the “cold run comes”. They don’t know how to lose. And they start selling bitcoins after they bought it at B point

D – Those who were patient, smart and didn’t panic made a huge profit.

As you see, even if we talk about one of the best possible investments in last years, there were “good” and “bad” runs. And smart investors know this. This is why they didn’t panic. Winning is easy. It is harder to learn how to lose.

Back to my sports betting chart

A – I believe in sports betting and I believe in my work, experience and skill. If I would not believe in myself and if I would not believe, that it is possible to make a profit, I would not even start betting. If you don’t believe in something you do, then don’t even start. If you don’t believe in me, don’t even start following me. In sports betting there is no “middle” way. There is a monster on the other side with all kind of experts, that set the very best odds and to beat them, you must believe in your work put a lot of effort in it.

B – The results went up, mostly on basketball, where I made a profit. And this was a good perios for most people, who jumped in.

C – But then I started my MLB season and I went around 2000 units down. I believe a lot of bettors would panic and some of them will stop betting, some of them will start doubling their money to get back to the B point. And such a behaviour usually lead to bankruptcy.

D – But after a bad start to the MLB season, I came back, beat the negative MLB balance and currently I am sitting on more than 6000 units on all my picks in 2017.

The guy who told me, that I am on a cold streak sent me the email when we were at the point D and this is basically the point, where my profit in 2017 is highest. What would he say if he would invest in Bitcoins and get to the C point, when bitcoins dropped big time?

Understanding this is the difference between those who will make a lot of money and those who will never make money or even a living from sports betting.

Sports Betting Impossible

With my site I want to educate people how to make money in sports betting world, but I see the same problem as Anthony Melchiorri in TV show called “Hotel Impossible” with the hotel owners.

When the hotel is in big troubles, then they call him and he saves the hotel. But the story is always the same. Most hotel owners think, that they need new interior or furniture. But when he comes, he shows them that interior is not the main problem, but usually the basics (clean hotel, hospitality). In almost every episode he spend most of the time to show them basics. When they change the mindset and when they start with the basics, then the interior is just extra bonus, that will make them more money.

The same problem I see in sports betting world. Most people are focusing on picks and they think, that they need picks (interior, furniture) and they think, that they will find someone who will make them rich. But at the same time most of them don’t have the basics.

Nobody will make you rich, except you

Picks are nothing if you don’t have the right mindset, if you don’t know anything about investment and if you don’t understand the basics. Good picks will increase profit and you definitely need them, but if you don’t understand sports betting fundamentals, you will lose sooner or later.

Winning is easy, but to know how to lose will make the difference

If you decide today, that you will make money in sports betting world, you will need to invest some money and time. Not only, that you will need to invest time for analysing games, but also for improving and educating. If you think that love for the sports and watching games in your sofa will beat big bookmakers companies, you are very wrong. There is no middle way and if you don’t believe in it and if you don’t invest constantly your time and money, it is a waste of time from the beginning.

But if you decide and if you believe, that you can make a living in sports betting world, then you must understand, that you will take some losses to. You will need to survive those days, months and even a negative season. Work hard and fight back.

Sports betting is a speculative business and usually speculative businesses have big ups and downs. It is crucial to know how to deal with losing.

Anyone can go 8-0 on bets in one day. This is easy part. The next day you have even more money. But 0-8 days will also come and here is the big difference between those who will not panic and will see the bigger picture (A-D) and those who will not see the bigger picture and will start panic, start blaming players, teams, other people for their success and they will see only the small picture (B-C). Most bettors don’t know how to survive 0-8 days.

If you work on your analysis and if you improve every year, use analytics and if you have strong money management, then you should not panic after some bad periods.

Start with my FREE 5-Day Online Betting Course

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How could my followers made $32.000 of profit in just 5 months with my free picks!

It has been amazing 2017 so far…

 

We are in June 2017 and this year has been great so far from my investing perspective. I made more than 6500 units of profit since February 2017 and I also shared all my daily investment advice for free on my site. Sports bettors like to call this – picks. In other words, if we translate this into ROI (Return on Investment) numbers, my starting investment raised for +65% in just 5 months. Or if you like, $100 bettors, that followed me, could made more than $6500 of profit. Just by following my daily picks.

I am sports betting entrepreneur, this is what I like to call myself, because I don’t sell any picks, like many sports picks services do. What I bet, I share for free, but at the same time I also see the bigger picture and I have generated more incomes related to sports betting world. My mission is to help people with fundamentals and prepare them to bet for themselves. Not only, that they bet for themselves, but also to show them how to become entrepreneur and make living in sports betting world.

 

However, one part is investing in cryptocurrencies and bitcoins. The whole industry is ideal for gambling world and I am sure this will change whole dynamics in next few years.

 

Because of that, I don’t want that my followers are late and I added this part into my sports betting online course too. And those who followed me and started betting with bitcoins, they probably doubled their incomes with my picks. Their investment was more than +200% in just 5 months.

 

If you started with $10.000 and turn them into bitcoins you would have 9.67 BTC on February 4th. We raised bankroll (9.67) for +60% with the help of my picks and today we would have 15.47 BTC. If you decided, that you will withdraw this amount and change BTC to USD you would have $42490.60 today on June 13th 2017.

Of course, this is ideal picture, because the odds are not the same, sometimes you can miss some games and some games could not be played too. But even if you could raise bankroll for only +30% so far, you would have 12.57 BTC today. And if you change BTC today into USD, you would have $34.465 which is more than amazing. Profit of $24.465 in just 5 months.

 

How is this possible?
It is very simple. Bitcoins have raised for more than +170% and I added profit of +65% with my sports investment picks too. You are probably thinking right now, oh I am too late. Why I didn’t bet with bitcoins…

You are not too late
Bitcoins and cryptocurrencies will raise and you are not late. Some projections say, that bitcoins will raise for another +100% or even more in 2017. Most of the world is still struggling with cryptocurrencies and if you tart today, you are still not too late.

I will show you how you can start betting with bitcoins.

 

First Step – You need to buy a bitcoins

 

You will need 2 things: A Wallet and some site, where you will change your money into bitcoins (BTC) – learn more. I use Kraken.com, where you can buy bitcoins and I use Blockchain.info for a wallet, where I store bitcoins and send them wherever I want. I want to send them to Bitcoin bookmaker.

 

Second Step – You need bitcoin bookmaker

 

There are a lot of great bookmakers, like 5Dimes, that accept bitcoins, but they just accept bitcoins and then they change them into USD. So, you basically don’t profit from this. What you are looking is a bookmaker that accept bitcoins and you bet with bitcoins. And here are recommended bookmakers:

1. CLOUDBET  

2. SPORTSBET.IO

3. NITROGENSPORTS

4. BETCOIN

5. COINBET24

6. LUNARBETS

When you will have bitcoins, you will easily send to your bitcoin bookmaker. And the best part – small fees and anonymity.

 

Third Step – Bet

 

You can make your own picks, you can follow my picks, which are 100% free or whatever is best for you. Investing in bitcon bookmakers was probably one of the best investment for sports bettors in 2017. You are not too late, because all projections show, that bitcons will raise in the future too.

MB, Underdogchance.com

5 Sneaky Ways Sports Betting Services Fool You Into Buying Their Picks

paid sports picks

Sports betting is a huge business. Illegal or legal, gamblers will always find the way to risk their money or look for someone who can make them rich in a very short time, if possible.

On one side, we have bettors, gamblers, sports investors, and all kinds of people, who try to win money in sports betting.

On the other side, we have bookmakers that take bets, and they are definitely the big winners at the end.

Somewhere in the middle, paid sports picks services were born. I am not talking about sports analysts, bloggers, or all kind of sports fans, or entrepreneurs, that work in betting industry, but I am talking about those who sell so-called betting picks.

The motivation for writing this article is Money Talks – Sports Handicapping Reality TV. How they sell this advice, and what they promise is a huge fraud, and they even made a show from this.

A guy comes to Las Vegas for three days with $50,000 and they promise him that he will win big. He is advised to bet from $10,000 to $12,000 on one game.
Smart sports investors do not bet more than 1-2% of their bankroll, and he was advised to bet more than 20% on a game.
Ladies and gentlemen, such an advice is not advice, but selling some unrealistic gambling dreams. If you decide to gamble, do it for yourself. If you gamble and you want to make a lot of money in three days, you don’t need an advisor. You just need a lot of luck. There is nobody in the world that can have such an edge over the bookmakers to make you huge money in just 3 days.
And the best part, if he wins, they split the profit. If he loses, it is like nothing happened. So, basically one guy comes to gamble and if he wins, he will just share his profit with some so-called advisor.

This is probably one of the biggest scams that I’ve seen.

So, what are paid sports betting sites, and how can they fool you?

They are sites or people that sell betting advice and usually they guarantee big wins, big money, and gamblers are willing to pay for their advice.

But are they really so good? Can they really make money for you? Do they really have the edge over the bookmakers or is it just good (or bad) marketing?

Do you think gamblers, who already struggle with some addiction, can think rationally after someone tells them that they can solve all the problems with good “winning” advice?

No.

Not only gamblers, but also all other people are easily fooled into spending money for such services. Here is how they do this:

Manipulating with results

Sports events are displayed with odds. So, what are the odds? Odds are probabilities that something will happen (example: Boston will win this game), turned into numbers. Odds are the prices that gamblers will pay, and if they want to win against the bookmakers, they will need to find the method that will give them the edge over the bookmakers. In other words, their probabilities must be better than bookmakers’ probabilities.

To understand this, we will take the coin flip experiment as an example. I hope you agree with me that we don’t have an edge, and if we repeat this experiment a lot of times, Heads and Tails will “happen” 50% and 50% times.

But does this mean, that if we flip a coin 30 times, that Heads and Tails will always be 15 – 15?

No. You can do experiment for yourself. I just did it and it was 17-13 for Heads.

So, we agree, that I don’t have any edge, right? But I can also manipulate with the “Heads” record. I can say that am on a 17-13 run for “Heads”. This is how sports betting services manipulate with results. “We are on a 9-1 run. We are on 43-32 run. We are making huge money three straight days….” They don’t have any edge and most of those results, that you see on the internet are by a luck, not by a skill. This is how they can easily manipulate the results.

They claim they are experts

Who is an expert? This is a person who is very knowledgeable in a particular area. Most of those betting services will claim that they are experts. But in reality, most of them are not experts, but just sports fans and they found the way how to sell betting advice. The world has changed. Sports betting is a serious business. And bookmakers are getting stronger and stronger every year. They use all kind of statistical methods to predict those games. They hire the smartest people to calculate the best lines. They hire people that are experienced and can adapt to new situations quickly.
Many betting services don’t use any statistical method, they don’t use analytics, and if you ask them basic things, like what is a yield, ROI, linear regression, or something like this, they don’t know the answer.
They will also claim that they have the right information, but with the internet you don’t need to pay for information anymore. Information is easy to find and unless they use advanced statistics to give you some value with in-depth analysis, you can do at least that good for sure.

Manipulating with the truth about bookmakers, their limits, and the odds

The ugly truth about sports betting is that around 97-98% of all people lose. That means that they will give more money to bookmakers than they take from them.
So, only around 2-3% of all bettors consistently beat bookmakers, but bookmakers do everything to limit their winnings with bet limitations, closing their accounts, and dropping the odds. So, even those successful bettors face all kinds of troubles with bookmakers.
An average bettor will not understand this and he can easily create an illusion that he will get the same odds as a betting service, which promised him huge money. Almost every bettor dreams about how he will live a dream and bet more and more money.
But in reality, most bookmakers will limit you or even close your account if you start winning.
The second thing are the odds. Bookmakers are fast and they will move the line quickly. Most bettors will never get the same lines as sports handicappers that send them picks. And the odds are the key. If you get -101 instead of +101 it can be the difference between winning and losing on a 50% hit rate.

Money back guarantees

They try to attract people with money back guarantee. But, if you pay $300 and lose $10,000, do you think that you will care about that $300? NO.
A money back guarantee is just marketing trick. It does not work in sports betting field; nothing is guaranteed. This is sports betting, it is a very risky business and anything can happen in every single game. Lock, Monster, Guaranteed, Lock of The Year and words like this, should not be used. Many people fall into this trap.

Marketing and reversal Pareto principle 20/80

There are smart gamblers who can make a profit and most of them bet for themselves without selling picks. If they want to beat bookmakers, they need to spend most of the time analysing the games.
With most betting services the story is totally different. They will spend 80% of time on marketing, spamming on social media, and how to sell their picks.

I am not saying that there are not smart investors and handicappers that can’t beat bookmakers. In fact, I think that there are people who are smart and disciplined enough to make a profit in sports betting. I am one of them and you can find my daily investment picks totally for free on my site. But to find them is very hard and even if you can find them it is almost not possible to follow their advice and get the same profit.

This is why a lot of paid picks services are bad. So, if you’re planning on using any, you’ll need to do as much research on them as you would if you were analysing your own bets.
Best Regards,
MB

A SIMPLE GUIDE ON HOW TO SUCCESSFULLY BET THE NHL PLAYOFFS by ProfessorMJ

Hello everyone!

With the 2017 NHL playoffs set to begin tomorrow night, I figured I would revisit my dataset from the last 9 seasons (regular season and playoffs included) to see if I could find a winning strategy.

Some of you may have already read my previous article entitled “Betting NHL teams on a losing streak facing a team on a winning streak” (if not, I strongly encourage you to read it: https://www.professormj.com/pages/betting-nhl-teams-on-a-losing-streak). My initial hypothesis was that the public tends to overreact to recent results, thus over betting teams riding a winning streak facing an opponent coming off a series of losses. This study presented a method that yields a 15% ROI (Return On Investment).

CONTINUE READING….


 

3 Reasons Why You Should Have Multiple Bookmakers Accounts

  1. Always get the best price

Every professional sports bettor will look to get the best possible odds and if you have only one bookmaker account, you will miss a lot of good odds. Is this important? Yes it is, because you will lose money with every bet if you don’t bet on the best odds possible. It is the same if you want to buy a jacket and the shoes. In your city there are two shops, who sell exactly those shoes and that jacket you want.
In first store the price is:
Jacket $250
Shoes $200
In the second store:
Jacket $280
Shoes $170
Will you buy both shoes and the jacket in the same store or you want to save $30? Every smart person will try to save some money and will look to find the best price.
It is the same with bookmakers. If you have only one account and if you want to bet on one game, you will always get that odds, which your bookmaker will offer you. But if you have multiple accounts, you can get always the best possible odds. Here is the example of today’s NHL game between Philadelphia and Calgary. Pinnacle’s odds are 1.79 on Philadelphia and 2.15 on Calgary, while William Hill has 1.71 on Philadelphia and 2.20 on Calgary. If you have both accounts, you will make €80 more if you make a bet of €1000 on Pinnacle and you will make €50 more if you bet on Calgary at William Hill. Or if we turn things around, you will lose that money if you don’t have both accounts. Now, calculate all the bets you make trough one year and if you have more accounts, you can simply make much more money!

  1.  Get all the bonuses and free bets you can – why not?

So, what is a bonus or free bet? Bookmakers will usually award new players with some extra cash or free bets. For example if you sign up on 10Bet right now, they have bonus of 50% up to €200. “To be eligible for this promotion, your qualifying deposit amount must be rolled over once on settled sports bets with odds of at least 1.60. Any bet placed on any type of handicap (except 3-Way Handicap) or Over/Under will not count towards this requirement.” So, you roll over once your cash, play odds of 1.60 or more and then they give you extra money, which is great. I almost never play odds less than 1.60 and after some time you can roll over your starting deposit money. Almost every bookmaker will offer some bonuses and you can grab up to $1000 of bonuses on my site. Why they do this, is because they want to attract new players and if you are smart and disciplined, you can take that money.
  1. Stay under the radar

Here is the list of bookmakers, which are personally verified by me. Those are the safest and most reliable bookmakers right now, but still, when you start winning a lot, bookmakers will watch you and I don’t trust 100% anyone. There are a lot of stories on the internet, when bookmakers closed accounts or limited players, because they started winning. Such a things are unacceptable, but this is our reality and it is happening. This is why I am very careful and like to stay unsuspicious. If you spread your money on several bookmakers, you can stay longer under the radar.