Professor MJ: One NBA Pick for Friday October 20!

Hi NBA fans! So far we are 3-0 with picks rated 3 stars or above versus 0-1 on those rated 2 stars or less. We have 10 games on the menu, and I only see one value play.

PICK: Charlotte Hornets -4 vs Atlanta Hawks (rated 3 stars)

The only thing I don’t like about this game is the reverse line move that we have observed: the spread opened at 6, and has now gone down to 4 despite 54% of the bets going Atlanta’s way. I haven’t heard of any major injury update during the day, so we can only explain it on sharp money going on the Hornets. I rarely go against that, but I will make an exception today.

I like the fact that Dwight Howard will be facing his former team, an additional motivation for Charlotte. He was traded in exchange for Miles Plumlee who is out until November because of a strained right quad.

The Hawks have not had much success in Charlotte recently, having lost the last three matchups there (5 of the past 6). Over the past 8 meetings overall, the Hornets are 5-2-1 against the spread.

Charlotte’s bench is not as deep with injuries to Cody Zeller, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Michael Carter-Williams, not to mention starter Nicolas Batum. On the Hawks’ side, they are thin up front with Plumlee’s injury.

Perhaps the public is overreacting to recent results, as the Hawks upset the Mavericks 117-111 in Dallas, while the Hornets lost by a 12-point margin in Detroit. I expect the Hornets to be much more focused after committing 17 turnovers in their opening game (which is a big surprise considering they have finished first in the league each of the past four seasons for the fewest giveaways in the league!).

Have a nice Friday night!

Professor MJ

Professor MJ: NFL Picks for Week #7 (15-5-1 over past 4 weeks)!

Good day everyone, I’m back for my week #7 NFL picks! Last week we had an unusually low number of value plays, going 1-1 after losing badly on the Denver pick, but winning the New Orleans pick. Our record over the last four weeks is now 15-5-1. This week I’ve got five (5) bets that I believe will be profitable for you. Let’s discuss them one by one.

PICK #1: Buffalo Bills -3 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bills are coming off their bye week, which is a good starting point from a betting perspective.

Moreover, Buffalo’s head coach Sean McDermott knows how to game plan against the Bucs after having spent six years as Carolina’s defensive coordinator from 2011 to 2016. He faced quarterback Jameis Winston on four occasions, whose statistics looked like this in these games: 93 of 155 (60%) for an average of 258 yards per game, 4 touchdown passes and 7 interceptions. Tampa Bay only scored an average of 16.8 points per game in those four contests.

As you may already know from previous write-ups, I also like to back the home team in games involving clubs coming from different conferences. The main reason is the lower level of motivation for them since the playoff implications are reduced, whereas the home team is still excited about the game because they are feeding off their home crowd. The Bucs may also be looking ahead to a couple of divisional matchups against the Panthers and the Saints over the next two weeks.

The Bills have only played two home games thus far in 2017, winning both of them: 21-12 over the Jets and an impressive 26-16 victory against the Broncos. Meanwhile, the Bucs have lost their two road games: 34-17 at Minnesota and 38-33 in Arizona, a game in which they trailed by as many as 31 points.

PICK #2: Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 at the Pittsburgh Steelers

Here is one more play where I’m taking a team coming off their bye week. Don’t underestimate the importance of this factor, please. A good game preparation is key in the NFL, not to mention the extra rest on the body. Of course, that doesn’t mean picking every single team after their bye week, but it’s an important variable to consider when handicapping NFL games.

The Bengals will also be looking for revenge after losing their two matchups against the Steelers last year. They lost 24-16 in Pittsburgh and 24-20 at home. After two horrible performances to start the season, Cincinnati canned its offensive coordinator. The results were immediate: after scoring just 9 points in their first two games, they have scored an average of 25 points since then, going 2-1 in the process with the only loss occurring in overtime at Lambeau Field.

Like him or not, lineback Vontaze Burfict is a hard hitter and he always makes his presence felt. He was suspended for the first three games of the season. The Bengals defense has allowed just 7 and 16 points in their two games since he got back on the field, but these games were against the Browns and the Bills, two of the weakest offenses in the league. Burfict recorded 19 tackles and one sack during those matches.

It’s been an up and down season for the Steelers thus far. They have been alternating good and bad performances all year long. They barely beat the Browns in the season opener, then got a great 26-9 win over the Vikings. They were then shocked by the Bears in overtime, only to rebound nicely with an easy win in Baltimore. They followed that up with a crushing 30-9 loss at home against the Jaguars, a game in which Roethlisberger threw five interceptions. Once again, Pittsburgh came back strong last week by handling the Chiefs their first loss of the season. I’m betting on this trend to continue, as I expect the Bengals to at least keep it close (or even win it).

PICK #3: Cleveland Browns +6 against the Tennessee Titans

I hope the Browns won’t make me regret it like they did against the Jets a few weeks ago, where they basically gave the game away with many bonehead plays. I know, I know, the Browns are 2-31 over their past 33 games (if you can believe that!) so it’s hard to get excited when you are picking them.

The Titans are losing one day of preparation because they were playing last Monday night against the Colts. This week’s game will also mark their third road game over the past four contests (although not back-to-back).

The Browns will try to avenge a 28-26 loss in Tennessee last year. Not only was this game close, but you might be surprised to learn that Cleveland had won the previous two matchups (28-14 at home in 2015, and 29-28 at Tennessee in 2014).

The Titans have a good rushing attack, but Cleveland’s run defense matches up well, as shown by their #1 ranking in terms of rushing yards allowed per attempt (tied with Denver). Also, the #1 overall pick from last year’s draft, defensive end Myles Garrett, will not be limited for the first time since coming back from an injury. He was still able to lead his team with 3 sacks despite missing the first four games of the season and being limited in his first two.

Meanwhile, Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota did not look very mobile in his return from an injury last Monday night, but he should be feeling better this week. The Browns will be going back to DeShone Kizer after benching him last week, while Kevin Hogan threw three interceptions.

PICK #4: Denver Broncos +1 at the Los Angeles Chargers

I like Denver to rebound after a pathetic performance at home on primetime television against a depleted New York Giants team. How could they not be fired up following such a poor outing, especially facing a divisional opponent? Granted, the Chargers won’t take this game lightly either, but they are coming off a big win in Oakland and might not put their foot on the accelerator as much.

The Chargers have lost all of their home games so far this season, going 0-3. Playing at StubHub Center has not felt like home not only because of the record, but also because fans from opposing teams have literally invaded the stadium more often than not. Meanwhile, the Broncos have lost their only road game in 2017 by a 26-16 score in Buffalo.

I’m a bit concerned about Trevor Siemian’s shoulder injury he suffered last week. He is still expected to play, but how much is it bothering him? He will also be without wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders because of an ankle injury. On the Chargers side, running back Melvin Gordon is having a good season with 7 touchdowns in 6 games, but he was limited at Wednesday’s practice because of a shoulder injury.

Much like my first pick, we have a coaching connection worth of note in this game. Denver’s offensive coordinator, Mike McCoy, was the Chargers’ head coach from 2013 to 2016. Denver has other coaches who know Philip Rivers pretty well (like the offensive line coach Jeff Davidson who was with San Diego last year).

PICK #5: Atlanta Falcons +3.5 at the New England Patriots

If you believe in teams being fueled by a desire for revenge, then this pick could not be more perfect for you. Do I need to remind you that the Falcons led last year’s Super Bowl 28-3 in the third quarter before allowing the Patriots to pull off the biggest comeback among all Super Bowl games? Atlanta fans had probably circled that game a long time ago.

On top of that, the Falcons are coming off two consecutive home losses against the Bills and the Dolphins, who certainly don’t qualify as powerhouses. What happened to their high-octane offense? They can’t put the blame on injuries as they have been relatively healthy, except for Julio Jones who has been slowed down by a hip injury but has not missed a full game. Atlanta played without wide receiver Mohamed Sanu last week, but he is expected to return. What better way to get your offense back on track than playing the porous New England defense? They rank 30th out of 32 teams in points allowed, and are dead last in yards allowed per game (way behind the next-to-last team). They have been atrocious.

The Patriots are 4-2 right now, but they lucky their record isn’t worse. They should have lost against the Texans. They could have easily lost against the Bucs. And they were down 14-0 against the Jets last year before rallying once again. It’s not going to work out well every time. I’m betting the Falcons to either win, or keep it very close.


I was considering taking the San Francisco 49ers +6 against the Dallas Cowboys, but I decided to stay away. Did you know the Niners are the first team in NFL history to lose five straight games by three points or less? Unbelievable! Many sports bettors put too much emphasis on win-loss records, and will therefore underrate San Francisco based on their 0-6 record. One more argument in favor of the Niners is the fact that Dallas will be travelling two time zones out west. You could also argue this is a sandwich game for the Cowboys after having played an exciting game against the Packers and awaiting divisional opponents Washington next week.

However, a few things play in favor of Dallas. They are coming off their bye week. And they have lost two straight games at home, so I don’t necessarily see them taking this game lightly. Will running back Ezekiel Elliott play or not? His status is unclear. Am I the only person who is sick of hearing about this story week after week?


That’s it for this week’s NFL predictions; I hope you found this article insightful. I do my very best to help you grow your bankroll in the long run.

I really want to thank all of you who have been following my work over the past few months. I usually have between 200 and 400 unique visitors on my website every day, but for some reason it went up to 605 yesterday, which is mind-blowing for me! Thank you so much for your support!!

Professor MJ

Professor MJ: NBA Picks (Wednesday October 18)!

Hello NBA fans, we got off to a nice start of the 2017-2018 season by taking the Houston Rockets +9.5 at the Warriors last night. Let’s try to keep it up tonight. Out of the 11 games on the menu, I see three value plays including our first 5 star bet of the season!

PICK #1: Sacramento Kings +8 vs Houston Rockets (rated 5 stars)

The Rockets are coming off a big upset on opening night in Golden State against the defending champions after being down by 13 points through three quarters. The bad news is Chris Paul is dealing with a bruised left knee. Officially, he is “questionable” to play, but coach D’Antoni might decide to play it safe against a weaker opponent, especially playing the second leg of back-to-back games.

Speaking of injuries, George Hill is likely to be in the lineup for the Kings, while the status of Zach Randolph is less clear. Sacramento is not super deep at the power forward position, so they may have to rely on Labissiere and Koufos to pick up the slack in case he cannot go.

The motivation level won’t be nearly as high for the Rockets after such an intense game in Golden State yesterday, so a letdown is possible.

The Kings have missed the playoffs 11 straight years, and they are highly unlikely to end the drought this year. They finished the 2016-2017 season on a good note by going 5-5 over their final 10 games. They lost their two home meetings with the Rockets by 13 and 7-point margins. As a matter of fact, Houston has beaten Sacramento in 12 of the last 13 matchups. However, the games played in Sacramento did not end by wide margins, except the 13-point loss last season.

In summary, I like the Kings mainly based on a possible letdown by the Rockets, the back-to-back games for Houston and the likelihood of Chris Paul being out or limited.

PICK #2: Milwaukee Bucks +3 at Boston Celtics (rated 3 stars)

My statistical models plus my manual adjustments have the Bucks as 1-point favorites. Why? Based on the lines for regular season wins by each team, Milwaukee has a 42.7% chance of beating Boston on a neutral court. I subtracted 8.2% to account for the home-court advantage, which reduces the Bucks’ win probability to 34.5%, or alternatively Boston’s win probability becomes 65.5%.

Let’s now account for injuries. Milwaukee is missing Jabari Parker, while the Celtics are without Marcus Morris and Gordon Hayward who suffered a horrific injury last night. You may or may not agree with my own assessment, but I penalized Boston 5% which brings their win probability down to 60.5%.

We have one final step to do. Based on a Harvard study, a team playing the second of back-to-back games has a probability of winning which is roughly 80% of what it would be if rested. I used this little piece of information throughout the 2016-2017 season and it worked out just fine. In this case: 60.5% * 80% = 48.5%. In other words, Boston becomes a slight underdog.

The Bucks have made few offseason moves and are therefore featuring a similar team. They won’t need time to gel together as they are already familiar with each other. They were a young team that acquired quite a bit of experience from last season. They finished the season with a 16-7 record before losing their first round series against the Raptors in six games.

The money is evenly split on both teams as 52% of spread bets have gone on Milwaukee thus far.

PICK #3: Denver Nuggets +2.5 at Utah Jazz (2 stars)

There are few injuries worth of note in this game. The Nuggets were plagued by many injuries last season, which probably cost them a playoff spot after finishing just one game back of the final and eighth spot. They finished the season strong with a 26-19 record. Nikola Jokic is an underrated star that can do it all on the field. The Nuggets have added Paul Millsap to complement him.

Meanwhile, the Jazz are entering this season without their two leading scorers from last year, Gordon Hayward and George Hill. Only the Grizzlies and the Mavericks scored fewer points per game in 2016-2017. Thankfully, they acquired point guard Ricky Rubio. It will be interesting to see how rookie Donovan Mitchell does coming out of Louisville.

The Jazz have won the last 5 home meetings against the Nuggets. The two teams split the season series last year, each team winning its two home games.

Good luck on your plays!

Professor MJ

Professor MJ: NHL Picks (Tuesday October 17)!

Good Tuesday everyone, we have a busy night in the NHL with a total of 11 games! However, the lines seem reasonable to me, except for a couple of plays that I could recommend. But basically, there is only one bet that I really like.

PICK #1: Florida Panthers +128 (decimal 2.28) at the Philadelphia Flyers

The Panthers are off to a 2-2 start, which is fine considering the strength of opposition so far: Tampa Bay twice, Pittsburgh and St. Louis. Their combined record is 12-5-1.

Meanwhile, the Flyers have exceeded expectations with 3 wins out of 5 games. They are coming off an impressive 8-2 beating of the Washington Capitals. To me, that’s one of the reasons I’m going with Florida because I feel like Philly might relax a little bit. This is certainly not one of the most motivating games for the Flyers these days; they have just faced Nashville and Washington, and have Nashville and the high-powered Edmonton offense up next. That can be viewed as a “sandwich” game, in my opinion.

All three meetings last season were won by the Flyers, but two of them occurred in extra time. Prior to that, the Panthers had won three out of the previous four contests, including a couple in a shootout. I do expect a close game, which is good news when you are betting the underdog.

I like the fact that 76% of the bets have gone on Philly so far, yet the line has not moved much. People are overrating the Flyers because of their last outing, and the fact that they have scored 13 goals over their previous two games. I’m taking the Panthers.


Though not an official pick, I am leaning towards the New Jersey Devils +113 (decimal 2.13) against the Tampa Bay Lightning. Tampa has stormed out of the gates with a 5-1 record to this 2017-2018 season. I don’t mean to downgrade what they have accomplished so far, but please note that all of their games have ended with a one-goal deficit (except their season opener where they beat the Panthers 5-3, thanks to an empty-net goal). The Lightning are playing the second leg of back-to-back games and are sending backup goalie Peter Budaj in net for the first time of the season. After getting a one-game rest, Cory Schneider goes back between the pipes for the Devils.

I’m also considering taking the Colorado Avalanche +154 (decimal 2.54) at the Nashville Predators. The Preds are still without Ryan Ellis, while the status of Roman Josi and Nick Bonino is unclear for tonight. Nashville is coming off an emotional match against the Blackhawks, whom they eliminated in four straight games in the first round of the playoffs last year, so the emotions won’t be running as high tonight. However, I’m worried about the fact that Colorado has lost six straight meetings with Nashville.

Thank you for your time, I appreciate a lot!

Professor MJ

The NBA season is getting under way!! One pick for Opening Night!

Hi guys, I’m super stoked about the NBA season getting under way tonight! We have a couple of interesting matchups tonight, but from a betting perspective I only see one value play.

PICK: Houston Rockets +9.5 at Golden State Warriors

Let’s start with the statistical justification. The consensus line on the number of regular season wins by the Golden State Warriors is 67.5 versus 55.5 for the Houston Rockets. Those numbers translate into win percentages of .823 versus .677. I’ll save you the details, but based on my statistical models a home team with a .823 win percentage facing a road team with a .677 win percentage should win 72.8% of the time. That being said, I have decided to penalize the Warriors by 2% because of injuries/illness to Kevin Durant, Shaun Livingston and Draymond Green. They are all expected to be ready to go, but I felt like their effectiveness may not be the same. So my final win probability for the Warriors at home against the Rockets ends up at 72.8% – 2% = 70.8%. Converting such a number into point spreads yields the following projected lines: Rockets +6.2 versus Warriors -6.2. Since the Dubs are favored by 9.5, I’m taking Harden’s squad.

Note: if you disagree with the 2% penalty, please note that the projected lines become Rockets +6.7 versus Warriors -6.7.

It will be interesting to watch two of the league’s best floor generals on the same team: James Harden and newly acquired Chris Paul. If you combine this acquisition with P.J. Tucker (a very hard-worker), you have a recipe for an improved defense, despite losing Patrick Beverley in the process.

The two matchups between these two teams in Golden State last season ended 132-127 in favor of Houston in double overtime and 107-98 for the Warriors, so in both cases the Rockets would have covered a 9.5 spread.

The public is evenly split on this game as 52% of the bets have gone on the Warriors.

Thanks for reading and I wish you a very profitable and enjoyable NBA season!!

Professor MJ

Professor MJ: NHL pick of the day (Saturday October 14)!

Hello all! The best play of the day in the NHL, in my humble opinion, is:

PICK: Buffalo Sabres +152 (decimal 2.52) at the Los Angeles Kings

The Sabres are still looking for their first win of the season after four unsuccessful tries. They came fairly close in their last game in a 3-2 loss at San Jose. One of the league’s top young prospects, Jack Eichel, expressed his frustration after the game by mentioning he was really sick of losing. I feel like the motivation level will be high for Housley’s squad. In terms of shots on goal, the Sabres have not been bad at all so far this season: they have outshot Montreal by 5, while they have been outshot by 4, 6 and 1 versus the Islanders, the Devils and the Sharks, respectively.

Meanwhile, the Kings are boasting a 2-0-1 record, but they haven’t faced a top team yet. To me, they are a middle-of-the-pack team at best because of a lineup filled with players who are relatively slow in a game that is becoming more and more oriented towards speed.

Here is one amazing fact that might concern you if you are considering taking Buffalo like me: the Sabres’ last four trips at Los Angeles all ended with the same 2-0 score in favor of the Kings! In other words, Buffalo hasn’t scored a single goal there over the last four meeting in California. However, the Sabres have dominated the Kings when playing at home, as shown by their 8-game winning streak in Buffalo. Only 34% of the bets have gone on Buffalo as of Saturday morning.

Have a great Saturday hockey fans!!

Professor MJ

Professor MJ: NHL pick of the day (Friday the 13th!!!)

Hello hockey fans, only one value bet in the NHL on Friday the 13th (hopefully it won’t be an unlucky day for us!).

PICK: Washington Capitals -138 (decimal 1.725) against the New Jersey Devils

The Devils are having a great start to the 2017-2018 season. After going 5-1-1 in preseason games, they are now 3-0 in the regular season. None of their first three games have even been close, outscoring their opponents 16 to 6! Their leading scorer is Jesper Bratt, a former sixth-round pick in the 2016 draft from Sweden. What a surprising start to his professional career! Goalie Cory Schneider is having a nice start after a down year in 2016-2017. Their defense is suspect and I don’t believe Schneider will keep playing at such a high level.

Meanwhile, after winning their first two contests (in which Ovechkin scored 7 goals!!!), the Caps have dropped their last two, both by a one-goal margin. They definitely won’t take this game lightly, especially in light of the Devils’ stellar play thus far.

Washington has been enjoying incredible success against the Devils: they are 10-0-1 over the past 11 matchups, including a perfect 6-0 in New Jersey! I don’t like the fact that the Caps have been outshot in each of their games so far, though. But I still like them because they have more depth on offense, and are much superior defensively.

Thanks for reading and have a very nice weekend!

Professor MJ

Professor MJ: NHL pick of the day (Thursday October 12, 2017)

Hi guys, I only see one profitable bet out of the seven games on the NHL schedule today. Let’s see the details right away!

PICK: Chicago Blackhawks -119 (decimal 1.84) against the Minnesota Wild

Chicago’s offense is firing on all cylinders thus far, averaging more than 5 goals per game. After leaving the team for two years in Columbus, Brandon Saad leads the team with 7 points. There isn’t a single player on the team that has a negative +/- rating. Starting goalie Corey Crawford has an amazing .971 save percentage. Things could not be going any better except for an overtime loss in Toronto, but the Hawks still hold a 3-0-1 record.

Meanwhile, the Wild are looking for their first win of the season after losing 4-2 in Detroit and 5-4 in extra time in Carolina. They will finally play their home opener this Saturday against the Blue Jackets. They do have a talented team, but they are likely to be without top players Zach Parise and Mikael Granlund (their leading scorer in 2016-2017). Coach Bruce Boudreau expects to play 11 forwards and 7 defensemen.

Minnesota was riding a 6-game winning streak against Chicago, but the Blackhawks have now won the last three matchups. Please note that the Wild have benefited from four days of rest compared to only one for Chicago. Will Minnesota be rusty or better prepared? We’ll find out tonight.

Enjoy the games!

Professor MJ

Professor MJ: NHL pick of the day (Wednesday October 11, 2017)

Hello NHL fans! Out of tonight’s five games, I only see one value play.

PICK: Anaheim Ducks -125 (decimal 1.80) against the New York Islanders

The Ducks welcomed back their star center Ryan Getzlaf after he missed the opening two games of the season. He played 22 minutes in a 2-0 loss to the Calgary Flames, which snapped a jaw-dropping 29-game winning streak at home versus Calgary (playoffs included). Anaheim had the best home record in 2016-2017 among Western Conference teams, but has now dropped two straight games at the Honda Center. I fully expect them to be razor-sharp tonight trying to snap this skid.

Meanwhile, the Islanders are 1-1-1 with their only road game being a 5-0 loss in Columbus. New York has been enjoying success against the Ducks recently, as shown by their 4-game winning streak over Anaheim.

Hampus Lindholm, Sami Vatanen and Ryan Kesler are still out for the Ducks. Despite those injuries, Anaheim’s defense is top-notch with good blueliners and 24-year old goalie John Gibson on the verge of stardom.

Thanks for reading and have a nice day!

Professor MJ

Professor MJ: NFL Picks for Week #6 (14-4-1 over past 3 weeks)!

Hello my friends, we went 4-2-1 last week which raises our record over the past three weeks to an astonishing 14-4-1, which is a success rate a bit above 75%. We cannot expect to keep winning at such a high rate for the remainder of the year, but let’s do our best to stay on the right track! I’m still upset at the Browns for literally giving the game away to the Jets by turning the ball over 2 times in the red zone and missing 2 field goals, all in the first half! They should have won this game, and we would have won an additional pick but that’s how things go sometimes!

I see fewer good plays on Week #6 in the NFL, but let me reveal to you my picks for the upcoming games.

PICK #1: Denver Broncos -11.5 against the New York Giants

I usually despise heavy favorites, but my projected lines are telling me to bet the Broncos in this game (according to my statistical models and adjustments I make based on a variety of factors). I even find myself getting pretty excited about this pick for many reasons.

First of all, the Broncos are very well-rested: not only are they coming off their bye week, but they have not traveled much thus far in the season after having played only one road game. In other words, heading into week #6 the Broncos have only had to travel to Buffalo and that was it.

Denver’s injury list is pretty short, while the Giants’s looks like a phone book. Their WR corps has been decimated by injuries, especially last week where they lost for the remainder of the season Odell Beckham, Brandon Marshall and Dwayne Harris. They are left with Sterling Shephard who left the game against the Chargers in the first half and never returned. He will probably be a game-time decision. Their next best receiver is Roger Lewis who has 15 career catches. Running back Orleans Darkwa looks pretty good before hurting his calf. He is questionable to play this week. New York’s offense might struggle big time in a hostile environment against the #1 rated defense in terms of yards allowed per game.

One more reason to like Denver in this game is the fact that the Giants will be traveling two time zones and playing in Colorado’s thin air (which is always a tough adjustment for visiting teams). This match is also one of New York’s two non-conference road games, which is not super motivating for them because of the reduced playoff implications. At 0-5 and following a game where they were depleted by injuries, the Giants are probably feeling depressed.

New York will be playing a third road game over their past four contests. I’m crossing my fingers the Broncos won’t be looking ahead to matchups against the Chargers, the Chiefs, the Eagles and the Patriots. Considering they have been preparing for the Giants for 2 weeks, I’m betting they will be sharp.

The Giants have not won in Denver since 1989.

I recommend betting this game early in the week because I expect the line to get even bigger. I wouldn’t be surprised if it goes up to 12.5 or 13 before kickoff.

PICK #2: New Orleans Saints -4.5 against the Detroit Lions

Here is one more play where I highly recommend placing your wager early in the week, otherwise I feel like the line is going to move against you. Matthew Stafford suffered two injuries on the same leg last week (ankle and hamstring); I expect him to be on the field in New Orleans but he may not be as effective. Meanwhile, Haloti Ngata has been having a good season as a pass rusher this year, but he exited last week’s game with an elbow injury. He was already battling a shoulder injury, and he will be out for several weeks.

After losing their first two games to Minnesota and New England, the Saints have rebounded nicely with wins over Carolina and Miami. Notice how the Saints were able to blow out the Panthers 34-13, which turns out to be Carolina’s only loss in 2017. New Orleans benefits from 7 additional days of rest, thanks to a bye last week. They will also be looking for revenge following a 28-13 loss at home against those same Detroit Lions last year.

A couple of unofficial picks (which won’t count towards my overall record):

– I’m leaning towards the Atlanta Falcons -11 against the Miami Dolphins. What? Another heavy favorite? That’s right! I like how the Falcons had two full weeks to prepare for this game after suffering a surprising home loss to the Buffalo Bills. Great teams tend to respond well following a rare loss, especially when obtaining more days to prepare than their opponents. I’m a bit worried they could be looking ahead to a Super Bowl rematch against the Patriots on Week #7 though. Also, Mohamed Sanu may not be in the lineup, while Julio Jones is hampered by a hip injury. All of those factors led me to make the decision not to make it an official pick. I will stay away from that game and leave it up to you to decide whether you want to invest money or not.

– I was also considering taking the Baltimore Ravens -6.5 against the Chicago Bears. Chicago has an epically banged up defense, but they should get linebacker Danny Trevathan back from a suspension. The Ravens have some injuries on the offensive line which is a cause of concern to me. However, I like the fact that the Bears played Monday night which leaves them with one less day to prepare for this matchup.

I appreciate you taking the time to read this write up and I invite you to listen to episode #8 of “The Sports Investor Podcast” (on iTunes or Stitcher) where I interviewed Jason Logan from who unveiled some fascinating betting strategies in the NFL, MLB, the NHL and the NBA.

Thanks again and good luck on your plays!

Professor MJ