MLB Sports Betting Prediction: Toronto (Estrada) at Texas (Austin Bibens-Dirkx)

My Projected Lines and the odds
Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers will repeat series from last year playoffs and the public will be on Texas despite we have a risky option with Texas pitcher, who pitched only 11 inning so far this season. I have projected, that Toronto should have around 63.2% of chance to win this game. And this gives me the odds of 1.58 (-172) on Toronto. Bookmakers give me much better odds on them at around 1.85 (-117). Because of that I have mathematical value with Toronto. Let’s see if there is any other information, that supports this play.

Match Up

Toronto Blue Jays will start with Marco Estrada, who lost last 3 games and his ERA is 12.08 in these games. On the first look very bad, but he also struck out 14 hitters in 12 innings. Based on SIERA numbers and his performance his ERA numbers need some adjustments. And if we take into account very good numbers, that he has against Texas Rangers, he could have a good game today. He is 4-1 against Texas and their hitters have combined batting average of only 0.208 against him. He also played against them this season and he pitched 6 innings, where he allowed only 1 run and struck out 8 Texas hitters.

On the other side we have unexperienced pitcher, who has 32 years and he just started pitching this year in MLB level. Austin Bibens-Dirkx pitched 11 innings so far and has 4 walks and 4 strike outs. He pitched only 2 games and he allowed home run in each game. SIERA numbers suggests, that he needs some regression and his SIERA is 6.08, which is much higher than Estrada’s on the other side (3.25).

I am sure, that Toronto will have pitching advantage with starting pitcher, but even if we take a look at bullpens, Toronto is better. Their ERA is 3.85 to the season, while Texas ERA is just 4.73. I have Toronto as top 5 best bullpen and I have Texas as below average bullpen in the league.

Reason for pick

Both teams have some offensive potential and I would not decide which team is better in hitting, but if we check pitching match up, I think we have advantage with Toronto. Better and more experienced pitcher, who has great past success against Texas and their hitters. And on the other side we have unexperienced pitcher who has the same numbers of walks and strike outs. My math model is on Toronto’s side and I agree with the model. Better pitcher, better bullpen and pretty same offence.

Play Toronto

MLB Sports Betting Prediction: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) @ Cleveland Indians (Bauer)

Cleveland Indians (Bauer) vs LA Dodgers (Kershaw)

My Projected Lines and the odds
Public will be huge on LA Dodgers and of course there is a reason for that – Clayton Kershaw, probably the best pitcher in the world last couple of seasons. Bookmakers also set the Indians as a pretty big underdog at home. They set the odds of around 2.50 on Cleveland. However, I think, that this is little bit too high on Cleveland. I have projected, that this game could be much closer. My math model has Cleveland at 2.12 (+112) and I give them around 47.1% of chance in this game. I expect around 1.12 units if I bet 1 unit on Cleveland Indians and if they win. Bookmakers have them at around 2.50 and because of that I get more. This is just qualified value bet for me.

Match Up
Clayton Kershaw is pitching well and it is very hard to hit against him. ERA of 2.20 to the season and despite he has one loss in his only game against Cleveland, we can ignore that game, because it was in 2008.

On the other side we have Trevor Bauer, who will pitch for Cleveland Indians and he is 5-5 to the season with ERA of 6.1, but as I said many times, ERA is not goof future predictor and he is pitching much better. After all he has 76 strike outs in 62 innings and his skilled interactive ERA is much better (3.66 in 2017). In the last game at home, he pitched well – he struck out 14 Oakland batters, but then he had two bad outings on the road.

When we talk about bullpens, we have two top bullpens in the league. The only question is how deep will Kershaw go. He is pitching in average 6.9 innings per start. On the other side Bauer will probably go 5-6 innings (5.9 innings per start at home).

LA Dodgers score 4.8 runs per game, but on the road 4.2 and their road batting average is lower on the road too. In last 7 games, they score only 3.7 runs per game.
Cleveland on the other side are still not playing like we expect from them, but season is still long and they still have a lot of power in their lineup.

Reason for pick
LA Dodgers score 3.7 runs per game in last 7 games and today they will play without Adrian Gonzalez one of their most experienced players. We all know what we can expect from Kershaw, but also Bauer is pitching much better at home and I don’t see any bullpen or hitting advantage in this game. If he can repeat the last home game I think we have an open game at the end. We must not forget, that Cleveland is still last years finalist and one of the top teams in the league, despite, they didn’t show everything yet. Based on my projected numbers, they should be lower underdog and this game could be much closer.

Play Cleveland as a home underdog @2.70
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Sports Betting Analysis – Atlanta Braves (Foltynewicz) @ San Francisco Giants (Blach)

My Projected Lines and the odds
Majority of bettors will be on Giants today, but the odds already dropped on Braves and sharp bettors will probably be with the Braves today too. We can get Atlanta Braves at around 2.15 right now. My predictive model gives them around 66% of chance in this game, because of that my fair odds would be around 1.52. I would expect at least $0.52 if I bet $1 on Atlanta. Bookmakers would pay me around $1.15 of profit if my bet on Atlanta goes trough. Because of that we have mathematical value with the Atlanta Braves. Let’s see, what are the reasons for that and if we confirm this play or we rather stay away from Atlanta Braves play.

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Match Up
Atlanta Braves are playing some good baseball right now. They won 8 of last 12 games and they beat Giants yesterday too. They will start with Mike Foltynewicz, who is 3-4 to the season with ERA of 3.63. In four road games this season he was even better as his road ERA is 1.99 and he struck out 20 in 22.7 innings.
Foltynewicz is 2-1 against San Francisco in his career (team: 3-1) with ERA of 3.42. In his last outing in San Francisco he went 7 inninngs, where he allowed only 1 run and struck out 6 hitters. That was on 27th August 2017.
He will face a team (SF Giants), that score 3.3 runs per game with batting average of 0.228. Giants are little bit better versus right handed pitchers (3.5 runs per game), but still, they are one of the worst hitting teams this season. I have them ranked as the worst hitting team in the league, worst hitting team against right handed pitchers, third worst against lefties and third worst in last 14 days.
San Francisco Giants on the other side will start with Blach, who has ERA of 4.00 to the season, but his ERA at home and in last 3 games is much better. ERA at home 1.73 and 2.57 in last 3 games would tell us, that he is pitching really great. But as I said many times, ERA doesn’t tell us everything and is not good future predictor. Fangraphs has his SIERA at 5.25 this season and it looks like his pitching needs some regression.
Ty Blach doesn’t strike much. Only 12 strike outs in 36 innings. And he will face Atlanta braves that has batting average of 0.299 against the lefties. I rank Atlanta above average team against left handed pitchers this season. And if we check current hitting performance by both teams, Atlanta batting average in last 7 days is 0.294, while San Francisco batting average in last 7 days is only 0.186.

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Reason for pick
I don’t see any pitching advantage, in fact based on my numbers, there should be small advantage with Foltynewicz. There is also not big advantage with bullpens. But there is definitely advantage in hitting by Atlanta. They score more runs, they have better batting average and I don’t see a reason not to trust those numbers here. The only thing that I don’t like about Foltynewicz is that couple of players from San Francisco have some good numbers against him. But if he can pitch like in the last game in San Francisco, then I think we have a nice underdog here. After all, he has better team around him.

Play Atlanta Braves +115

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Sports Betting Prediction and Analysis: Philadelphia Phillies (Pivetta) @ Texas Rangers (Perez)

Texas (Perez) vs Philadelphia (Pivetta)

My Projected Lines and the odds
The public will be on Texas again today, but the odds already dropped from +140 (2.40) to around +129 (2.29) on Philadelphia. And I totally agree with this line movement as I also give better chance to Philadelphia. I have projected, that Philadelphia will have around 53.4% of chance in this game and my fair odds would be 1.87 on Philadelphia and 2.15 on Texas…. So with the Phillies I have a value.

Match Up
Texas Rangers beat Philadelphia in two straight games and they also won 8 straight games. I am the only person who is going against the streak, because baseball is streaky sport and usually I rather go with the streak than against it. But in this situation I think many bettors will overreact with Martin Perez on the mound.

Martin Perez will start for Texas Rangers and his ERA is 3.89 and this is much better than Pivetta on the other side, who has ERA of 6.13. But ERA doesn’t tell us everything and if we go deeper with the analysis, Perez is not pitching that well. In 44 innings he has 28 strike outs and 22 walks. He also allows more than a hit per inning (55 in 44 innings).

Philadelphia on the other side will go with Pivetta, who has ERA above 6 but he struck out 16 hitters in 14 innings, which is much better then Perez on the other side.

If we check hitting situation in this game, Philadelphia scores 4.9 runs per game against lefties with batting average of 0.251, while Texas score 4.7 with batting average of 0.237.

Reason for pick
A lot of bettors will be fooled by Perez numbers, but he will face a team, that score 4.9 runs against lefties and I have Philadelphia as above average team against left handed pitchers. I don’t see any pitching advantage here, in fact I don’t trust Perez and I think Philadelphia can hit against him. I also don’t see any attack advantage, because Philadelphia is playing much better against lefties and this is good situation for them. My math model supports this play and I think Philadelphia as an underdog of more than 2.20 (+120) is a good play.

Play Philadelphia +130

Sports Betting Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies (Eflin) at Texas Rangers (Cashner)

My Projected Lines and the odds
Philadelphia Phillies lost yesterday and they are underdog again in Texas today. Bookmakers offered Philadelphia at around 2.25 (+125), but odds dropped to around 2.15 and I think a lot of bettors will be fooled by ERA numbers here and will go with Texas. I believe around 70% of people will be tonight with Texas.
But based on my predictive model, we have wrong underdog here. I have projected, that Philadelphia should be at 1.87 (-116). I give them 53.6% of chance to win this game.
Let’s see if there is any other reason for that…
 
Bet at 5dimes
Match Up
Texas Rangers will start with Andrew Cashner, the pitcher who holds ERA of 2.43 in 6 games. Quite impressive number right? But don’t be fooled by ERA as ERA doesn’t tell us everything. Cashner has more walks than strike outs this season (20 walks and 17 strike outs in 33 innings). Second thing about him is that he is 3-1 against Philadelphia, but again I would be careful with this number too.
Philadelphia hitters faced him in 63 at bats and have reached batting average of 0.302.
Philadelphia on the other side will start with Eflin, who didn’t face Texas yet and this is always advantage for the pitcher. His ERA is 3.09 to the season, but has much better numbers than Cashner on the other side. He walked only 4 hitters in 35 innings and struck out 17.
Texas Rangers score 4.6 runs per game agianst RHP with batting average of 0.228. Philadelphia Phillies score 4.5 runs per game agianst RHP with batting average of 0.257. I don’t see any advantage in this match up, in fact Phillies have better batting average against right handed pitchers.
Texas Rangers are still missing couple of very important players (Beltre, Gomez and couple of pitchers) and for today’s game they have one more questionable player (Choo).


Bet at 5dimes

If we take everything into account I think there is no advantage by Texas Rangers in this game.
Reason for pick
Philadelphia lost 5 out of last 7 games, but they play very good offensive baseball. Despite they lost 5 out of 7 last games, they still score 5 runs per game, which is above league average. The big question is pitching. They allowed too many runs, but for this game I think Philadelphia will have small pitching advantage as I rank Eflin higher than Cashner and if they can keep scoring runs like this, they can win this game. With plus money I think we have legitimate underdog.

Play Philadelphia +120


Bet at 5dimes

Sports Betting Prediction: Atlanta Braves (Garcia) @ Toronto Blue Jays (Estrada)

Atlanta Braves won yesterday in Toronto, but this was just third win last 10 games and I still don’t trust them, especially because they faced Bolsinger, who I rank much lower, than his co-player Marco Estrada, who will pitch for Toronto today.
Marco Estrada is 3-3 to the season with ERA of 3.12 and he was simply amazing at home this season in his 3 games. His home ERA is 0.95 and he struck more than one batter per inning. He is 4-1 against Atlanta in his career (last game played 2015).
Atlanta on the other side will start with Garcia, who is 1-2 to the season with ERA of 4.33 and 4.66 on the road. But the biggest concern I think is his BB/K ratio. He walked 11 hitters in last 18 innings and struck out only 13 batters.
When we check both attacks, Toronto made some improvements in last 7 games as they score 5 runs per game (compared to 4 runs per game overall this season) and I have them also as above average team against left handed pitching.
Atlanta on the other side scores 4.5 runs.
I have projected that Toronto should be fav of around 1.55 and we get them for better price.
I will take Toronto because they will have much better pitcher on the mound. Marco Estrada is pitching really well right now. I will take Toronto because they are playing the best baseball this season (5 wins in last 6 games) and I will take Toronto, because they also have slightly better bullpen. After yesterday’s loss I think they will bounce back in this game. Based on my predictive model, I give Toronto around 64.4% of chance and with the odds of more than 1.70 this is qualified bet for me.

Play Toronto @1.75 Marco Estrada

Baseball Betting Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers (Milone) @ Chicago Cubs (Hendricks)

My Projected Lines and the odds
Bookmakers have Chicago Cubs as a big favourite here, but you can still find the odds of around 1.60 on them with some bookmakers. I have projected, that Cubs should be at around 1.54, which is basically the same then bookmakers price. My model gives Milwaukee around 35% of chance in this game.
Match Up
Milwaukee Brewers are playing surprisingly well at the start of the season, but this is the same story with a lot of teams at the start of the season, but then they can not keep winning, because they simply don’t have enough depth. However, they score 4.8 runs per game and they had a very good series in Chicago. Chicago scores less than Milwaukee (4.2 runs pr game), but I think we will see much different game here. Millwaukee will start with Tommy Milone, who pitched one game this season against Cubs. He pitched in Milwaukee and went only 4 innings, where he struck out only 2 batters and Cubs put 9 hits against him. He allowed 4 runs in 4 innings before he was replaced.
Cubs on the other side will start with Hendricks, who has amazing record against Milwaukee. He is 6-3 against them with ERA of 2.47, whip 0.959. He also pitched one game against Milwaukee and he did pretty well. The only problem was, that he allowed 2 home runs. In 6 innings he allowed 5 hits and struck out 6 Milwaukee hitters. When we take a look on his performance against current Milwaukee hitters, he has great success against them. Milwaukee hitters have 78 at bats and combined batting average of 0.167 against him, which is pretty weak.
I like this match up also because we have lefty pitcher for Milwaukee and Cubs have hit lefties well this season. In 104 at bats against left handed pitchers, they score 6 runs per game and with very good batting average of 0.298. They also saw Milone this season and this will give them some edge too. Milwaukee on the other side also play better against left handed pitchers, but the problem is that they will play against right handed pitcher today. Their batting average against right handed pitchers is only 0.235 this season and I rank them below average against right handed pitchers, while on the other side they are among the best against lefties this season.
Reason for pick
Chicago Cubs are still top team in MLB, after all, they are the champions from last year and anyone who thinks that playing against last year champions in the first month is profitable is wrong. Chicago finally broke a losing streak yesterday, when they scored 9 runs and beat Milwaukee at home. Today, they will have advantage with the pitcher and they are also in very good situation against Milwaukee when it comes to LHP/RHP situation. Milwaukee is below average team against RHP pitchers, while Cubs are top team so far against LHP. Better pitcher, better bullpen, better overall team,… I think Cubs should win by 2 or more today.
Play Cubs -1.5

NHL Betting Prediction: Boston Bruins @ Calgary Flames

Boston will face Calgary Flames, a team that is on a 10 games winning streak and they play the best hockey right now. Calgary makes 33 shots per game and 4 goals per game in last 5 games. Their first goalie Brian Elliott holds SV% of 0.960 in last 4 games and he is one of the reasons, why they allow less than 2 goals per game in last couple of games. But he will not be in the net today for Calgary. They will start with their backup goalie Chad Johnson, who has SV% of 0.897 to the season and 0.886 in last 4 games. I expect, that Calgary will allow goal or two more because of that.
Boston on the other side is also playing great ice hockey right now. They won 4 out of last 5 games and they score 3.8 goals per game. Their goalie Rask has been very consistent this season and in last 4 games his SV% is 0.928. He is one of the reasons, why they allow only 2.2 goals per game in last 5 games. But they will not start with him today, but with their backup goalie Khudobin, who is 4-6 to the season with SV% of 0.895. Despite his SV% is 0.910 in last 4 games, he is still very risky option and I also expect, that Boston allows one or two more goals today.
So, we have two very good offensive teams, that are playing great ice hockey right now. In last 5 games: Boston scores 3.8 goals per game and Calgary scores 4 goals per game. We have a lot of offensive potential with both teams right now. And because both teams will start with backup goalies, that don’t have the same SV% than their first goalies, I expect also some more goals on both sides. I have projected, that there should be around 6 goals in this game and because we have odds of more than 2.00 on the over, I will take over 5.5.

OVER 5.5

NHL Betting Prediction: Carolina Hurricanes @ Arizona Coyotes

My Projected Lines and the odds
Bookmakers offered Arizona as an underdog at the start of the day and then the odds dropped little bit on them because Carolina will start with their backup goalie. But still Arizona is an underdog today and based on my numbers and my projections Carolina should be an underdog. I have projected win% of 58.2% for Arizona and 41.8% for Carolina. My projected odds on Arizona are 1.72, bookmakers offer the odds or around 2.20. I expect to make 0.72 units of profit if Arizona wins, they will pay me more, this is why I think I have a value with Arizona.
Match Up
Arizona and Carolina are playing second game of home-home situation, that means, that they played a game in Carolina two days ago and now they will play another game, but in Arizona. Arizona beat Carolina in the first game in Carolina and when we look at recent performance by Hurricanes, they are struggling. In last 10 games, they have only 1 win and that win was against banged up Ottawa, who played without three important players and on a back-to-back game. All other games Carolina lost. When they face Arizona at home, I think that was a game hey should and could win, because they are strong home team. But on the road, they are awful. Record 7-24, 2.3 goals per game and 3.3 goals per game allowed. Today they will start with Eddie Lack, their back up goalie, who is 2-6 to the season with SV% of 0.873. On the road he lost 4 of his 5 games with SV% of 0.836.
Arizona on the other side is one of the weakest team in NHL, but they are very competitive at home and they definitely play much better right now than Carolina and it is not accident that they beat them two days ago in Carolina. Their record in second half of the season is 12-15, which is better than Carolina (9-16). In last 12 games they have record 6-6. Arizona will start with Mike Smith, their first goalie, who holds SV% of 0.913 this season. At home they score 2.5 goals per game and allow 2.8.
Reason for pick
It’s not about who will win, but it is about the value here. I think both teams are equal right now, but when we take into account current performance and home-road performance, plus goalies, who will start, I think wrong team is underdog here. I think Carolina has more talented team than Arizona, but what i think is irrelevant. The results speak for itself and the results are on Arizona’s side. With Arizona we have better team right now. After all, they beat Carolina on the road two days ago. Note, that Carolina is 18-12 at home compared to 7-24 on the road. They didn’t beat Arizona at home, where they are very strong and I think they will have even tougher job now on the road. Win or lose Arizona as an underdog is a right play here.
Play Arizona +130

NHL Betting Prediction: Ottawa Senators @ Carolina Hurricanes

My Projected Lines and the odds
This is very interesting game, because public is on Ottawa and I will be on them too. This is something I don’t like, but still, I will try to stick with my numbers here. Bookmakers have Ottawa as underdog. My predictive model has them as a favorite of around 1.60 or if you want, it gives them around 62% of chance to win this game. I know about injuries in Ottawa and I know that they are only 3-13 in Carolina, but after I adjusted that number, Ottawa is still a play.
Match Up
Ottawa is second best team in Atlantic Division and you know what, they also have 2 games less than Montreal and they can with this Division. The problem is that they have their 3 key players out. Hoffman, Ryan and Stone are all out. So, how important are they? They are important, but I also like how they played in New Jersey and this is what I expect from them in next games. They will probably play more defensively, they have very good goalie with Anderson and we must know, that they have very good road record this season (16-10). They play even better on the road than at home (16-16). In last 7 games, Ottawa lost only 2.
Carolina on the other side lost 5 straight games now and they are the worst team in Eastern Conference with only 56 points. They play well at home and they played really good ice hockey against Pittsburgh, despite they lost. The biggest problem with this team in tonight’s game I see is their goalie. Eddie Lack is not playing well and of course Carolina must give Ward some rest. Eddie Lack is 1-4 to the season with SV% of 0.856. For comparison Anderson from Ottawa is 15-8 with SV% of 0.927 and 7-2 on the road with SV% of 0.938.
Reason for pick
Yes, Carolina is playing without their good offensive players and they will definitely will be limited in offense, but the good thing is that they will also face Eddie Lack, Carolina’s backup goalie. Ottawa will play defensively no doubt and they can defend. This is what I expect from them. Ottawa is playing for the first place in Atlantic Division, Carolina is the last in Eastern Conference. Despite those injuries in Ottawa, I still think, that Ottawa is much better team as a group and we have a nice odds on them.
Play Ottawa