Sports Betting Prediction: Chicago Cubs (Jake Arrieta) at Chicago White Sox (James Shields)

My Projected Lines and the odds

White Sox and Cubs are playing 4 game series with two games already played in Wrigley Field and now, they are moving to play two games in White Sox ballpark. This is the rivalry from the same city and those games are always interesting. In the first two games, they split wins. White Sox won the first game and they lost yesterday. In both games, they were huge underdog and in first two games playing on White Sox was profitable. Bookmakers opened the odds at around +200 (3.00) on White Sox and then later odds dropped on Cubs and right now we can get White Sox at around +240 (3.4), which I think is little bit too much. I have projected, that White Sox should be an underdog, but only at the price of +131 (2.31). My math model gives 56.7% of chance to the Cubs and 43.3% of chance to White Sox. So, if you want to bet your house on this game Cubs still have better chances, but if you invest long term and if you are looking for a value, than I think we have some value with White Sox today.


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Match Up

First of all this is rivalry and in such games anything can happen and historical numbers are on White Sox side when it comes to interleague games here are some interesting past numbers. White Sox record in interleague games since 1997 is 208-172, +34.3 units. On the other side Cubs have negative record since 1997 165-170, -19.4.

Cubs will start with Arrieta, who is 9-7 to the season with ERA of 4.1 and the Cubs will definitely have pitching advantage at the start of the game, because I rank him higher than James Shields on the other side who will start for the White Sox.


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But still, I don’t think, that James Shields is totally without chances here. He pitched 4 times against the Cubs in his career and he never lost a game. Not only, that he didn’t lose any games against them, but also his team is 4-0 in those games. Last year, he beat Cubs, when he went 7.7 innings and didn’t allow any run. He allowed only 4 hits. Then one game before that in 2015, he had one of the best games in his career. He went 7 innings against the Cubs and he struck out 11 hitters. And one game before that (2015) he went 6 innings and struck out 9 hitters. So, he has very good history playing against the Cubs.

Of course I am not fooled by those numbers and he is definitely not shining this season. But he will face Cubs team, that doesn7t have the best numbers against right handed pitchers this season. Batting average of 0.236, record: 35-41. So he will face a team, that has batting average below league average against right handed pitchers and he will face a team, who has negative record against right handed pitchers.

Reason for pick

We are not talking about winners. This is the topic for sports fans. We are talking about the price, that we need to pay in this game and the chances, that were offered by bookmakers. I don’t say, that White Sox have better chance to win this game, in fact I say, that they have less than 50% of chance winning this game. My projected numbers show, that White Sox will have around 43.3% of chance in this game. In this situation, I would expect, that if I bet on White Sox and if they win, that bookmakers pay me at least 1.31 units of profit for my every 1 unit risked. But they offer me more. If I bet on White Sox on 5Dimes right now, I get the price of +240 (3.40) and because of that bookmakers will pay me 2.4 units of profit if White Sox win of course. This is 1.19 more, than I would expect. I also like that James Shields  played well against the Cubs and I also like the fact, that this is city derby and anything can happen. I think we have a very nice odds on White Sox today.

Play White Sox (Shields) +240 5Dimes


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MLB Sports Betting Predictions – Milwaukee Brewers (Guerra) at Cincinnati Reds (Adleman)

My Projected Lines and the odds

Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers will start a series and it looks like majority of bettors will be Milwaukee side. There is probably couple of reason for that and one of those is that Milwaukee is 8-5 in last 13 games, while Cincinnati won only 2 games in last 13 games. Bookmakers still set Cincinnati as a favourite here and Milwaukee as an underdog. We can get Cincinnati at around 1.79. Based on my predictive model, I have projected, that Cincinnati should have a chance of around 60.7% to win this game and because of that my projected odds on Cincinnati are at 1.65 (US odds -155). Bookmakers offer me 1.79 on Cincinnati and because of that there is calculated vale for me with the Reds.

Match Up

Cincinnati beat Washington 2 days ago and then they lost another game against St Louis on the road. I mentioned, that they have only 2 wins in last 13 games, but we must also include home/away factor here, because Cincinnati played all those games on the road and the only series in this stretch was at home against top team – LA Dodgers. Those road games were tough for them, but at home they have winning record of 19-18.

Cincinnati will start with Adleman, who is 4-4 to the season with ERA of 4.43, but he has winning home record of 3-1 with ERA of 4.15. Seven Milwaukee batters saw him in the past and combined 23 at bats and batting average of 0.174.

On the other side we have Junior Guerra, who is 1-1 to the season with ERA 3.11, but don’t be fooled by his ERA numbers, because those numbers don’t show us the whole picture about this pitcher. His BB/K ratio is just 22/27 in 37.7 innings pitched this season. In last 3 starts he allowed 3 runs in each game and he walked more than he struck out. Not only, that he struck less than he walked, but he also walked 13 hitters and allowed 4 home runs in last 18 innings.

Reason for pick

Cincinnati struggled last weeks, but they also had pretty tough schedule. They played most of the games on the road and the only home series in this stretch was at home versus Dodgers. And we all know that Dodgers are the best team in National League and second best in whole MLB (W-L record). Today they will face a shaky pitcher, who walks a lot of hitters. Cincinnati has winning record at home, they score 5.5 runs per game at home, which is more than Milwaukee in this situation (road: 4.5). Cincinnati scores 5.1 runs per game versus right handed pitchers, while Milwaukee 4.6. And when we take into account that Milwaukee has slightly weaker bullpen in this situation, I think that we have a bet on Cincinnati for this price. Not big play, but I think Cincinnati above 1.77 is a good play for 1 unit.

Play Cincinnati (Adleman) -126

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MLB Sports Betting Prediction: Toronto (Estrada) at Texas (Austin Bibens-Dirkx)

My Projected Lines and the odds
Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers will repeat series from last year playoffs and the public will be on Texas despite we have a risky option with Texas pitcher, who pitched only 11 inning so far this season. I have projected, that Toronto should have around 63.2% of chance to win this game. And this gives me the odds of 1.58 (-172) on Toronto. Bookmakers give me much better odds on them at around 1.85 (-117). Because of that I have mathematical value with Toronto. Let’s see if there is any other information, that supports this play.

Match Up

Toronto Blue Jays will start with Marco Estrada, who lost last 3 games and his ERA is 12.08 in these games. On the first look very bad, but he also struck out 14 hitters in 12 innings. Based on SIERA numbers and his performance his ERA numbers need some adjustments. And if we take into account very good numbers, that he has against Texas Rangers, he could have a good game today. He is 4-1 against Texas and their hitters have combined batting average of only 0.208 against him. He also played against them this season and he pitched 6 innings, where he allowed only 1 run and struck out 8 Texas hitters.

On the other side we have unexperienced pitcher, who has 32 years and he just started pitching this year in MLB level. Austin Bibens-Dirkx pitched 11 innings so far and has 4 walks and 4 strike outs. He pitched only 2 games and he allowed home run in each game. SIERA numbers suggests, that he needs some regression and his SIERA is 6.08, which is much higher than Estrada’s on the other side (3.25).

I am sure, that Toronto will have pitching advantage with starting pitcher, but even if we take a look at bullpens, Toronto is better. Their ERA is 3.85 to the season, while Texas ERA is just 4.73. I have Toronto as top 5 best bullpen and I have Texas as below average bullpen in the league.

Reason for pick

Both teams have some offensive potential and I would not decide which team is better in hitting, but if we check pitching match up, I think we have advantage with Toronto. Better and more experienced pitcher, who has great past success against Texas and their hitters. And on the other side we have unexperienced pitcher who has the same numbers of walks and strike outs. My math model is on Toronto’s side and I agree with the model. Better pitcher, better bullpen and pretty same offence.

Play Toronto

MLB Sports Betting Prediction: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) @ Cleveland Indians (Bauer)

Cleveland Indians (Bauer) vs LA Dodgers (Kershaw)

My Projected Lines and the odds
Public will be huge on LA Dodgers and of course there is a reason for that – Clayton Kershaw, probably the best pitcher in the world last couple of seasons. Bookmakers also set the Indians as a pretty big underdog at home. They set the odds of around 2.50 on Cleveland. However, I think, that this is little bit too high on Cleveland. I have projected, that this game could be much closer. My math model has Cleveland at 2.12 (+112) and I give them around 47.1% of chance in this game. I expect around 1.12 units if I bet 1 unit on Cleveland Indians and if they win. Bookmakers have them at around 2.50 and because of that I get more. This is just qualified value bet for me.

Match Up
Clayton Kershaw is pitching well and it is very hard to hit against him. ERA of 2.20 to the season and despite he has one loss in his only game against Cleveland, we can ignore that game, because it was in 2008.

On the other side we have Trevor Bauer, who will pitch for Cleveland Indians and he is 5-5 to the season with ERA of 6.1, but as I said many times, ERA is not goof future predictor and he is pitching much better. After all he has 76 strike outs in 62 innings and his skilled interactive ERA is much better (3.66 in 2017). In the last game at home, he pitched well – he struck out 14 Oakland batters, but then he had two bad outings on the road.

When we talk about bullpens, we have two top bullpens in the league. The only question is how deep will Kershaw go. He is pitching in average 6.9 innings per start. On the other side Bauer will probably go 5-6 innings (5.9 innings per start at home).

LA Dodgers score 4.8 runs per game, but on the road 4.2 and their road batting average is lower on the road too. In last 7 games, they score only 3.7 runs per game.
Cleveland on the other side are still not playing like we expect from them, but season is still long and they still have a lot of power in their lineup.

Reason for pick
LA Dodgers score 3.7 runs per game in last 7 games and today they will play without Adrian Gonzalez one of their most experienced players. We all know what we can expect from Kershaw, but also Bauer is pitching much better at home and I don’t see any bullpen or hitting advantage in this game. If he can repeat the last home game I think we have an open game at the end. We must not forget, that Cleveland is still last years finalist and one of the top teams in the league, despite, they didn’t show everything yet. Based on my projected numbers, they should be lower underdog and this game could be much closer.

Play Cleveland as a home underdog @2.70
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Sports Betting Analysis – Atlanta Braves (Foltynewicz) @ San Francisco Giants (Blach)

My Projected Lines and the odds
Majority of bettors will be on Giants today, but the odds already dropped on Braves and sharp bettors will probably be with the Braves today too. We can get Atlanta Braves at around 2.15 right now. My predictive model gives them around 66% of chance in this game, because of that my fair odds would be around 1.52. I would expect at least $0.52 if I bet $1 on Atlanta. Bookmakers would pay me around $1.15 of profit if my bet on Atlanta goes trough. Because of that we have mathematical value with the Atlanta Braves. Let’s see, what are the reasons for that and if we confirm this play or we rather stay away from Atlanta Braves play.

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Match Up
Atlanta Braves are playing some good baseball right now. They won 8 of last 12 games and they beat Giants yesterday too. They will start with Mike Foltynewicz, who is 3-4 to the season with ERA of 3.63. In four road games this season he was even better as his road ERA is 1.99 and he struck out 20 in 22.7 innings.
Foltynewicz is 2-1 against San Francisco in his career (team: 3-1) with ERA of 3.42. In his last outing in San Francisco he went 7 inninngs, where he allowed only 1 run and struck out 6 hitters. That was on 27th August 2017.
He will face a team (SF Giants), that score 3.3 runs per game with batting average of 0.228. Giants are little bit better versus right handed pitchers (3.5 runs per game), but still, they are one of the worst hitting teams this season. I have them ranked as the worst hitting team in the league, worst hitting team against right handed pitchers, third worst against lefties and third worst in last 14 days.
San Francisco Giants on the other side will start with Blach, who has ERA of 4.00 to the season, but his ERA at home and in last 3 games is much better. ERA at home 1.73 and 2.57 in last 3 games would tell us, that he is pitching really great. But as I said many times, ERA doesn’t tell us everything and is not good future predictor. Fangraphs has his SIERA at 5.25 this season and it looks like his pitching needs some regression.
Ty Blach doesn’t strike much. Only 12 strike outs in 36 innings. And he will face Atlanta braves that has batting average of 0.299 against the lefties. I rank Atlanta above average team against left handed pitchers this season. And if we check current hitting performance by both teams, Atlanta batting average in last 7 days is 0.294, while San Francisco batting average in last 7 days is only 0.186.

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Reason for pick
I don’t see any pitching advantage, in fact based on my numbers, there should be small advantage with Foltynewicz. There is also not big advantage with bullpens. But there is definitely advantage in hitting by Atlanta. They score more runs, they have better batting average and I don’t see a reason not to trust those numbers here. The only thing that I don’t like about Foltynewicz is that couple of players from San Francisco have some good numbers against him. But if he can pitch like in the last game in San Francisco, then I think we have a nice underdog here. After all, he has better team around him.

Play Atlanta Braves +115

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Sports Betting Prediction and Analysis: Philadelphia Phillies (Pivetta) @ Texas Rangers (Perez)

Texas (Perez) vs Philadelphia (Pivetta)

My Projected Lines and the odds
The public will be on Texas again today, but the odds already dropped from +140 (2.40) to around +129 (2.29) on Philadelphia. And I totally agree with this line movement as I also give better chance to Philadelphia. I have projected, that Philadelphia will have around 53.4% of chance in this game and my fair odds would be 1.87 on Philadelphia and 2.15 on Texas…. So with the Phillies I have a value.

Match Up
Texas Rangers beat Philadelphia in two straight games and they also won 8 straight games. I am the only person who is going against the streak, because baseball is streaky sport and usually I rather go with the streak than against it. But in this situation I think many bettors will overreact with Martin Perez on the mound.

Martin Perez will start for Texas Rangers and his ERA is 3.89 and this is much better than Pivetta on the other side, who has ERA of 6.13. But ERA doesn’t tell us everything and if we go deeper with the analysis, Perez is not pitching that well. In 44 innings he has 28 strike outs and 22 walks. He also allows more than a hit per inning (55 in 44 innings).

Philadelphia on the other side will go with Pivetta, who has ERA above 6 but he struck out 16 hitters in 14 innings, which is much better then Perez on the other side.

If we check hitting situation in this game, Philadelphia scores 4.9 runs per game against lefties with batting average of 0.251, while Texas score 4.7 with batting average of 0.237.

Reason for pick
A lot of bettors will be fooled by Perez numbers, but he will face a team, that score 4.9 runs against lefties and I have Philadelphia as above average team against left handed pitchers. I don’t see any pitching advantage here, in fact I don’t trust Perez and I think Philadelphia can hit against him. I also don’t see any attack advantage, because Philadelphia is playing much better against lefties and this is good situation for them. My math model supports this play and I think Philadelphia as an underdog of more than 2.20 (+120) is a good play.

Play Philadelphia +130

Sports Betting Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies (Eflin) at Texas Rangers (Cashner)

My Projected Lines and the odds
Philadelphia Phillies lost yesterday and they are underdog again in Texas today. Bookmakers offered Philadelphia at around 2.25 (+125), but odds dropped to around 2.15 and I think a lot of bettors will be fooled by ERA numbers here and will go with Texas. I believe around 70% of people will be tonight with Texas.
But based on my predictive model, we have wrong underdog here. I have projected, that Philadelphia should be at 1.87 (-116). I give them 53.6% of chance to win this game.
Let’s see if there is any other reason for that…
 
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Match Up
Texas Rangers will start with Andrew Cashner, the pitcher who holds ERA of 2.43 in 6 games. Quite impressive number right? But don’t be fooled by ERA as ERA doesn’t tell us everything. Cashner has more walks than strike outs this season (20 walks and 17 strike outs in 33 innings). Second thing about him is that he is 3-1 against Philadelphia, but again I would be careful with this number too.
Philadelphia hitters faced him in 63 at bats and have reached batting average of 0.302.
Philadelphia on the other side will start with Eflin, who didn’t face Texas yet and this is always advantage for the pitcher. His ERA is 3.09 to the season, but has much better numbers than Cashner on the other side. He walked only 4 hitters in 35 innings and struck out 17.
Texas Rangers score 4.6 runs per game agianst RHP with batting average of 0.228. Philadelphia Phillies score 4.5 runs per game agianst RHP with batting average of 0.257. I don’t see any advantage in this match up, in fact Phillies have better batting average against right handed pitchers.
Texas Rangers are still missing couple of very important players (Beltre, Gomez and couple of pitchers) and for today’s game they have one more questionable player (Choo).


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If we take everything into account I think there is no advantage by Texas Rangers in this game.
Reason for pick
Philadelphia lost 5 out of last 7 games, but they play very good offensive baseball. Despite they lost 5 out of 7 last games, they still score 5 runs per game, which is above league average. The big question is pitching. They allowed too many runs, but for this game I think Philadelphia will have small pitching advantage as I rank Eflin higher than Cashner and if they can keep scoring runs like this, they can win this game. With plus money I think we have legitimate underdog.

Play Philadelphia +120


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Sports Betting Prediction: Atlanta Braves (Garcia) @ Toronto Blue Jays (Estrada)

Atlanta Braves won yesterday in Toronto, but this was just third win last 10 games and I still don’t trust them, especially because they faced Bolsinger, who I rank much lower, than his co-player Marco Estrada, who will pitch for Toronto today.
Marco Estrada is 3-3 to the season with ERA of 3.12 and he was simply amazing at home this season in his 3 games. His home ERA is 0.95 and he struck more than one batter per inning. He is 4-1 against Atlanta in his career (last game played 2015).
Atlanta on the other side will start with Garcia, who is 1-2 to the season with ERA of 4.33 and 4.66 on the road. But the biggest concern I think is his BB/K ratio. He walked 11 hitters in last 18 innings and struck out only 13 batters.
When we check both attacks, Toronto made some improvements in last 7 games as they score 5 runs per game (compared to 4 runs per game overall this season) and I have them also as above average team against left handed pitching.
Atlanta on the other side scores 4.5 runs.
I have projected that Toronto should be fav of around 1.55 and we get them for better price.
I will take Toronto because they will have much better pitcher on the mound. Marco Estrada is pitching really well right now. I will take Toronto because they are playing the best baseball this season (5 wins in last 6 games) and I will take Toronto, because they also have slightly better bullpen. After yesterday’s loss I think they will bounce back in this game. Based on my predictive model, I give Toronto around 64.4% of chance and with the odds of more than 1.70 this is qualified bet for me.

Play Toronto @1.75 Marco Estrada

Baseball Betting Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers (Milone) @ Chicago Cubs (Hendricks)

My Projected Lines and the odds
Bookmakers have Chicago Cubs as a big favourite here, but you can still find the odds of around 1.60 on them with some bookmakers. I have projected, that Cubs should be at around 1.54, which is basically the same then bookmakers price. My model gives Milwaukee around 35% of chance in this game.
Match Up
Milwaukee Brewers are playing surprisingly well at the start of the season, but this is the same story with a lot of teams at the start of the season, but then they can not keep winning, because they simply don’t have enough depth. However, they score 4.8 runs per game and they had a very good series in Chicago. Chicago scores less than Milwaukee (4.2 runs pr game), but I think we will see much different game here. Millwaukee will start with Tommy Milone, who pitched one game this season against Cubs. He pitched in Milwaukee and went only 4 innings, where he struck out only 2 batters and Cubs put 9 hits against him. He allowed 4 runs in 4 innings before he was replaced.
Cubs on the other side will start with Hendricks, who has amazing record against Milwaukee. He is 6-3 against them with ERA of 2.47, whip 0.959. He also pitched one game against Milwaukee and he did pretty well. The only problem was, that he allowed 2 home runs. In 6 innings he allowed 5 hits and struck out 6 Milwaukee hitters. When we take a look on his performance against current Milwaukee hitters, he has great success against them. Milwaukee hitters have 78 at bats and combined batting average of 0.167 against him, which is pretty weak.
I like this match up also because we have lefty pitcher for Milwaukee and Cubs have hit lefties well this season. In 104 at bats against left handed pitchers, they score 6 runs per game and with very good batting average of 0.298. They also saw Milone this season and this will give them some edge too. Milwaukee on the other side also play better against left handed pitchers, but the problem is that they will play against right handed pitcher today. Their batting average against right handed pitchers is only 0.235 this season and I rank them below average against right handed pitchers, while on the other side they are among the best against lefties this season.
Reason for pick
Chicago Cubs are still top team in MLB, after all, they are the champions from last year and anyone who thinks that playing against last year champions in the first month is profitable is wrong. Chicago finally broke a losing streak yesterday, when they scored 9 runs and beat Milwaukee at home. Today, they will have advantage with the pitcher and they are also in very good situation against Milwaukee when it comes to LHP/RHP situation. Milwaukee is below average team against RHP pitchers, while Cubs are top team so far against LHP. Better pitcher, better bullpen, better overall team,… I think Cubs should win by 2 or more today.
Play Cubs -1.5

NHL Betting Prediction: Boston Bruins @ Calgary Flames

Boston will face Calgary Flames, a team that is on a 10 games winning streak and they play the best hockey right now. Calgary makes 33 shots per game and 4 goals per game in last 5 games. Their first goalie Brian Elliott holds SV% of 0.960 in last 4 games and he is one of the reasons, why they allow less than 2 goals per game in last couple of games. But he will not be in the net today for Calgary. They will start with their backup goalie Chad Johnson, who has SV% of 0.897 to the season and 0.886 in last 4 games. I expect, that Calgary will allow goal or two more because of that.
Boston on the other side is also playing great ice hockey right now. They won 4 out of last 5 games and they score 3.8 goals per game. Their goalie Rask has been very consistent this season and in last 4 games his SV% is 0.928. He is one of the reasons, why they allow only 2.2 goals per game in last 5 games. But they will not start with him today, but with their backup goalie Khudobin, who is 4-6 to the season with SV% of 0.895. Despite his SV% is 0.910 in last 4 games, he is still very risky option and I also expect, that Boston allows one or two more goals today.
So, we have two very good offensive teams, that are playing great ice hockey right now. In last 5 games: Boston scores 3.8 goals per game and Calgary scores 4 goals per game. We have a lot of offensive potential with both teams right now. And because both teams will start with backup goalies, that don’t have the same SV% than their first goalies, I expect also some more goals on both sides. I have projected, that there should be around 6 goals in this game and because we have odds of more than 2.00 on the over, I will take over 5.5.

OVER 5.5