Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks NL Wild Card Betting Preview

COLORADO (Gray) +165

  • Bookmakers line: +165 (2.65)
  • My Projected lines (math model): +145 (2.45)
Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies will play a wild card game and the bookmakers set the odds around +155 on Colorado, the odds dropped at the start and right now, when the game is close to start the odds went up again and there is a small value with Colorado. At least based on my model.
Colorado will start with Gray, who won 2 of last 3 games versus Arizona and he pitched really well in last couple of games. ERA 2.12, 20 strike outs in last 17 innings and i think he is the right pitcher for this game. Not only, that he pitched well twice this season in Arizona, he also struck 10 Arizona hitters in those two games on the road.
Greinke in the other has a very good season with the record of 17-7, but he also lost 2 out of last 3 games versus Colorado and in last couple of games he was not that sharp (last 3 games ERA 5.62). Of course, I believe he will be at his best, but still I don’t see such a big difference between today’s starters. I rank them both pretty equally.
When we talk about the hitting, Colorado scores 4.9 runs/game versus right handed pitchers. Arizona scores 4.9 runs/game versus right handed pitchers. Colorado OBP 0.335, Arizona 0.326. Colorado.
When we talk about bullpens, I also rank both bullpens pretty same.
What I want to say is that we have pretty equal match up everywhere and I think this game could be really close one. There is no speculations and both teams will give their 100% effort. And if we talk about injuries, Arizona is still missing Ahmed, Owings and couple of other players, while Colorado doesn’t have any important injuries.
I still think, that Arizona should be favourite here, but I still give more chances to Colorado, than bookmakers.
Play Colorado (Gray)

3 MLB Underdogs to consider on Tuesday

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (Nola) +155

Los Angeles Dodgers lost yesterday against Philadelphia with Kershaw on the mound. They are in playoffs and if we check their results, they are not playing well. In last 20 games, they won only 5 of them.
Philadelphia on the other side is a young team, they are playing for themselves and are showing some solid effort recently (10-10 in lat 20 games).
Philadelphia will start with Nola, who 11-10 to the season with ERA of 3.60. At home he has winning record (8-4) with ERA of 3.01, which is pretty good if we know, that his team is one of the worst in the league.
Dodgers on the other side will start with Darvish, who is 9-12 to the season and in last 3 games has ERA of 6.28 and lost 2 of them.
Public will be on Dodgers side today and Philadelphia is nice underdog again, but the way how those two teams play right now and the pitching match up we have today, I think Philadelphia can surprise us again.
Play Philadelphia

NY METS (Lugo) +128

Miami and the Mets will start second game after huge win yesterday by Miami. They beat Mets by 13-1 and they made 19 hits, which is great.
Today I think we can see little bit different picture. Mets will start with Lugo (6-5 to the season), who has ERA of 5.29 and if we focus only on this numbers (which is wrong), Lugo doesn’t look good. But he is 3-0 against Miami in his career (2017 and 2016) and his SIERA numbers are better than from Despaigne on the other side, who will start for Miami.
Despaigne will be on the mound for Miami and he pitched 5 games this season and he walked more than struck out. In 25 inning he walked 16 hitters and this is one of the chances for Mets.
I have projected, that Mets should be small favourite here and we have them as an underdog.
Play Mets

ATLANTA BRAVES (Gohara) +188

Max Scherzer and Gohara played the same game one week ago. Atlanta beat Washington by 8-2 and they scored 7 runs against him. That was second loss for him this season in last three games against Atlanta. Atlanta hitters have some solid numbers against him in 2017.
Gohara on the other side is a new pitcher, who didn’t pitch much this season. He lost one game against Texas and he won that one against Washington. In 10 innings pitched he struck out 12 hitters.
Washington is still playing without their best player – Harper and right now they score 2.7 runs/game (last 7). On the other side score 5 runs per game (lat 7 games).
Max Scherzer is still better pitcher – no doubt, but based on current odds, that are offered by bookmakers I think we have a nice value on Atlanta. After all they played the same game with same pitchers on the mound one week ago and Atlanta beat Washington by 8-2. That game was in Washington. Today, they will play in Atlanta.
Play Atlanta Braves

Two HUGE MLB Underdogs to consider on Wednesday

SAN FRANCISCO (Moore) +200

  • Bookmakers line: +200 (3.00)
  • My Projected lines (math model): +141 (2.41)
What a game yesterday. San Francisco showed great effort against Kershaw and the Dodgers and they even had more hits, than their big rivalry. And we all know, that in those games anything can happen. Dodgers versus Giants is one of the biggest rivalries in MLB and Giants will have another chance today.
Matt Moore will start for Giants today and at the first look, he has bad numbers against Dodgers. After all he lost last 3 games against Dodgers in 2017. But the only game at home against Dodgers he was superb, despite the loss. He went 7 innings, allowed only 2 hits and struck out 8 hitters. The problem is his poor team. But this has also changed, because San Francisco is playing much better, at least offensively. They score 5.6 runs/game in last 7 games, which is more than Dodgers. Note also, that Matt Moore has pretty good numbers against Dodgers hitters. In 143 at bats, they combined batting average of only .182 against him.
Dodgers on the other side will start with Darvish, but we have struggling pitcher and struggling team here against their rivalry. Darvish lost 3 straight games and posted ERA of 9.49. He allowed 19 hits, 3 home runs in last 12 innings. And his team lost 11 straight games before they won somehow that game yesterday with the best pitcher on the mound (Kershaw).
An the question is what we have here?
We have San Francisco as a huge underdog. We have one team, that is playing better and the other team that is struggling. We have one pitcher, that is struggling right now and we have a pitcher, that has good numbers against opposite hitters. I still give Dodgers more than 50% of chance to win, because they are still better team, but now way, that Giants should be +200 in this situation at home. I give Giants around 41.57% of chance to win this game and my fair odds are +141. I would expect from bookmakers, that they pay me $141 if I win with San Francisco, they are willing to pay me $200 if they win, which is $59 more and because of all that we have a value with San Francisco and Matt Moore.
Play San Francisco (Moore)

OAKLAND (Cotton) +176

  • Bookmakers line: +176 (2.76)
  • My Projected lines (math model): +109 (2.09)
Oakland Athletics lost yesterday by 11-1 and this is the only loss in last 6 games. They are playing really good, especialy offensively. They score more than 7 runs per game in last seven games and this is way above league average.
They will start with Cotton, who is 4-4 on the road with ERA 3.81 and has never faced Boston.
Boston on the other side is playing well too, after all they are one of the best teams this season and they score 6.1 runs per game in last 7 games.
They will start with Doug Fister, who is 5-5 to the season with ERA of 4.64, but he also has losing home record of 4-6 and ERA of  4.64.
I have projected, that Boston will have better chance to win this game (52.2%), but I also think, that Oakland is underrated here. They are score a lot of runs (in last 3 wins, they scored at least 10 runs in each of these games) and I also think, that they will have a chance against pitcher who has losing record this season at Fenway Park.
Play Oakland.

One MLB Underdog and One MLB “Gut” play to consider on Saturday

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PHILADELPHIA (Leiter) +163

  • Bookmakers line: +163 (2.63)
  • My Projected lines (math model): +109 (2.09)
That was a very exciting game yesterday between Philadelphia and Washington. 11-10 at the end and Philadelphia almost came back after they were trailing almost whole game.
Philadelphia is playing pretty well right now. Their season is over, but they have couple of talented players, who hit pretty well. In last 7 days they scor 6.3 runs/game and even is we exclude yesterday’s game, they score 5.6 runs/game in other 6 games.
Washington on the other side 5.3 runs/game and those two wins against Philadelphia were not easy one. Both by 1 run and really exciting games.
Washington started with Scherzer yesterday and they had one of the best pitchers on the world on the mound. They had huge pitching advantage. But I think this will not be the case here.
Jackson will start for Washington, who has ERA of 3.29 to the season, but his other numbers are not ok and this ERA number needs some regression. He walks too much compared to his strike outs (16/40 and 8/11 in last 17 innings) and I don’t think, that Wasington will have any starting pitching advantage here.
On the other side we have Leiter, who has ERA 4.93 but his skilled ERA numbers are better compared to Jackson.
I have projected, that Washington will still have better chance to win this game (52.14), but not close to bookmakers numbers. I expect, that if I bet on Philadelphia and if they win, that I make $109 of profit for my risked $100. Bookmakers will pay me $163, which is more than I would expect and because of that there is a value with Philadelphia.
Win or lose, Philadelphia is the right play today.

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KANSAS (Junis) +102

 

Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins are fighting for playoffs and despite Kansas has losing record (69-71), they still have more than realistic chances to reach wild card. And this game is one of those, that they must win.
I don’t like to bet based on such things like “must win”, because most profitable betting for me is analytics, that I use, but sometimes I use also mu gut to make recomendations. And this is one of those games, where my model doesn’t support Kansas play.
I have projected, that Kansas will have around 45.49% of chance to win this game, which is less than 50% and bookmakers have them set as a small underdog.
But still I like couple of things here. Minnesota beat Kansas yesterday and they are on the second wild card spot and if hunting wild card position was easy for them, I think holding this position will put them into totally different position. But if we check the record of teams, that are fighting for AL wild card, Minnesota has 74 wins and Kansas 69. So there is 5 game difference. Note also, that there are also 5 other teams with 69-72 wins, that will attack Minnesota and there will be some pressure for sure on them.
Minnesota will start with Berrios, who 12-7 to the season with ERA of 4.01. But there are two things, that are going against him. He is just 4-6 on the road and his road ERA is 5.43 (lower = better). The second thing is his bad record against Kansas. He played 4 games against Kansas and his team lost all for games. His ERA in those games is 8.19. And those games were in 2016 and the last in 2017, where he allowed 5 runs/9 hits in 5 innings.
On the other side we have Junis, who will pitch for Kansas and he has very solid season (5-2, ERA 4.71, whip 1.24) and he didn’t lost home game yet (5 games, 2-0 record).
I like Minnesota how they play and they are definitely one of the most underrated teams this season (74-67 +10.6 units), but I think that Kansas will step up in this one. Minnesota will not have any pitching advantage and if I take into account Berrios’s bad history playing against Kanas, I think Kansas is a good play.
Play Kansas as home underdog.

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3 MLB Underdogs and 3 MLB Favs to consider on Friday

3 UNDERDOGS

PHILADELPHIA (Thompson) +318

  • Bookmakers line: +318 (4.18)
  • My Projected lines (math model): +199 (2.99)
Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals will play the second game today and when we loot at yesterday’s game it was a close one (again) for Philadelphia. They are playing pretty good right now. Their season is over, but a lot of talented young players want to show what they got.
In last 8 games, they won 4 and 2 of the losses were by only one run. Today they will face Scherzer and there is no doubt that Washington will have huge pitching advantage, but the question is what is the fair price. And I think that 4.11 is little bit to high.
Jake Thompson pitched 4 games this season and he is just coming to this game after his best performance against Miami (6 innings, 7 strike outs). If he can keep Washington at minimum, I think at the end anything can happen.
Washington is still playing without their best player Harper and they score only 3.7 runs/game in last 7 days, compared to Philadelphia that scores 5.1. Note also, that Scherzer had some issues with calf before this game.
Because of all that, I think, that the odds are little bit too high.
Recommended Play Philadelphia

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DETROIT (Farmer) +300

  • Bookmakers line: +200 (3.00)
  • My Projected lines (math model): +126 (2.26)
We have two teams with losing record and basically season for both teams is over. Detroit lost 8 of last 11 games and this is the same record for Toronto too.
Detroit will start with Farmer, who is 3-2 to the season and the only two wins he collected on the road, where he posted ERA of 2.25.
On the other side Stroman will play for Toronto, who is 11-6 to the season with ERA of 3.08 and I rank him higher than Farmer on the other side. But he had some injury problems since last game (elbow), when he pitched only 1 inning.
When we compare those two teams, I don’t see any hitting advantage by Toronto, in fact I have ranked Detroit higher in hitting and with all the injured players from Blue Jays (Martin, Tulowitzki, Travis, Coghlan), I think we have better hitting team with the Tigers. When we add that, both teams are strugglng, I think that the odds are little bit too high on Detroit.
I still give better chance to Toronto, but only around 55.81%, which is less than bookmakers and because of that, there is some value with Tigers today.
Recommended Play Detroit

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TAMPA BAY (Archer)

  • Bookmakers line: +120 (2.20)
  • My Projected lines (math model): -126 (1.79)
Tampa Bay Rays are playing for the playoffs and the Boston leads AL League East. So we can expect really good game. Tampa Bay will go with Chris Archer, who is 2-11 in his career against Boston, but he beat Boston in both games this season.
I rank Archer higher than Pomeranz on the other side and I think that Tampa Bay will have starting pitching advantage. Archer left the last game with small injury (forearm), and we can add this into account too before making this bet, but I still like him, because he is top pitcher in MLB and has 225 strike outs in 179 innings. He was just outstanding before that last game, when he beat Toronto and St Louis (18 strike outs in 13 innings).
Drew Pomeranz on the other side has a great season too and because he is playing for one of the best teams in MLB, he has really good record too (14-5). However, I am not impressed by his pitching lately. Whip 1.681, 11 walks in 18 innings and his SIERA is 4.77 compared to 2.62 by Archer.
With Tampa Bay we have better pitcher, who is playing great this season and who already beat Boston in both games in 2017. I have projected, that Tampa Bay will have little bit more than 50% of chance in this game and Drew Pomeranz is not pitching that well right now. Because of that, I think Tampa Bay as an underdog is a right play.

3 FAVS

ST LOUIS (Weaver) -190

  • Bookmakers line: -190 (2.20)
  • My Projected lines (math model): -282 (1.36)
Pittsburgh is going to face St Louis who will start with Luke Weaver. Weaver has been outstanding this season and holds the record of 4-1 in 5 games. But even more impressive than his record is that he struck out 42 batters in 31 innings. If he would struck out one more batter in the last game against San Francisco, he would have 3 consecutive games with 10 strike outs.
Pittsburgh on the other side will start with Williams, who is 5-6 to the season and his road ERA is 4.72. He played two games in his career against St Louis and both games were in 2017 (the last 18.august) and they hit him hard (17 hits, 3 home runs, 10 ER in 8 innings).
Note also, that Carpenter and Phan are in the lineup for St Louis, while Mccutchen is out of today7s lineup for Pittsburgh. I have projected, that St Louis will have ore than 70% of chance to win this game and I think that Pittsburgh will have tough time here.

CLEVELAND (Clevinger) -155

  • Bookmakers line: -155 (1.65)
  • My Projected lines (math model): -184 (1.54)
Cleveland Indians just won 14 straight games. This is one of the most impressive streaks that I have seen. They are red hot and of course, there will be a lot of speculations, when this streak will end and so on…. but I don’t want to be distracted by this. I will just keep analysing the games and try to find the value. And with today’s game, I think we have a value.
First of all, Cleveland will have better pitcher on the mound. Clevinger is 8-4 to the season with ERA of 3.18. He was outstanding in last games and he also beat Baltimore in his only game this season against them.
Baltimore on the other side will start with Miley, who is 8-14 to the season with ERA of 4.91 and his ERA on the road is even bigger (5.19). But what I also like about Indians pick here is that they hit him hard in the past. He lost the last game against Cleveland and his record is 1-2 versus Cleveland Indians with ERA of 5.03 and whip 1.983.
Jose Ramirez is out for Cleveland today, but I still think, that Cleveland is much better team even without Ramirez. Better pitcher on the mound, better bullpen and better hitting team. I have projected that Indians should be at around -184 and with -155, there is some value for sure.

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NY METS (Lugo) -105

  • Bookmakers line: -105 (1.95)
  • My Projected lines (math model): -100 (2.00)
I think the odds are pretty fair, but this pick is more gut play for me than anything else. Cincinnati and NY Mets are out of the playoffs this season and they will just play for their fans until the end of the season. I expect, that Cincinnati will play much better at home, where they score a lot of runs in a hitters friendly ballpark. I also expect, that they will struggle little bit until the end of the season on the road.
On the other side NY Mets just won 3 out of last 4 games and I expect, that they will try to show some good effort in front of home fans.
And when we compare those two pitchers today, I think that Mets will have nice pitching advantage. Garrett is not playing well, his season ERA is 7.40. He pitched the last game in june and he is back right now. 29 walks in 58 innings is not good.
On the other side Mets will start with Lugo, who is pretty solid and I have ranked him above league average this season. His SIERA in last 30 days is 3.61, which is good.
Note also, that Mets have better bullpen and that they have very good record against Cincinnati. 15-2 last three seasons and 7-0 at home in last 3 seasons.
Play Mets as a small favourite.
Good Luck

3 MLB Underdogs to consider on Tuesday

CINCINNATI (Stephenson) +125 at 5DIMES

My Projected Lines and the odds
Cincinnati and Milwaukee will play the second game today and it looks like the public will be with Milwaukee and the bookmakers have Cincinnati Reds as underdog of around 2.25 and we can find them at 2.30 too. Milwaukee is motivated here, because they need wins, but this doesn’t mean that they will win for sure. My betting model has Cincinnati at 57.59% and I think we have wrong underdog here.

Match Up
Zach Davies will start for Milwaukee Brewers. He has been very good lately, but his strikeout rate is not that great (106 K in 160 innings) and he already lost a game this season in Cincinnati. I rank him as a league average pitcher.

On the other side Cincinnati will start with Robert Stephenson, who pitched only 32 innings this season, but has also 32 strikeouts. His biggest problem is control as he walked 20 hitters in just 32 innings. But in last two games he struck out 18 batters in 11 innings. He also won 3 straight games. I rank him just below Zach Davies.

If the pitching match up is close to even, I think Cincinnati is better in other parts of the game. First of all, they are playing at home and they are playing without any pressure. Secondly, they have better offense (5 runs/game vs RHP, BA 0.258) compared to Milwaukee (4.3 runs versus RHP, BA 0.247). They also have slightly better bullpen and if we take all those tings into account, this match could be much closer than most people think.

Reason for pick
I don’t see any huge pitching advantage by Milwaukee. Yes, Davies has better ERA, but ERA doesn’t tell us everything and Stephenson strike out rate has been pretty good lately. Cincinnati has better offense and slightly better bullpen too. They are playing at home and my model gives them more than 50% of chance to win this game.

Play Cincinnati (Stephenson)

MINNESOTA TWINS (Colon) +126 at NITROGENSPORTS

My Projected Lines and the odds
Minnesota Twins are fighting for a wild card and they are just behind the Yankees. And if we look at their results, they were the best team in August and they are playing really well. They lost 3 of last 4 games, but two of those losses were by only 1 run. Bookmakers set Minnesota as an underdog here, but I think this could be close match and I even think, that Minnesota has better chance. Based on my model, I give them 54.90% of chance to win this game. Because of that my odds on Minnesota are 1.82 and bookmakers have them at around 2.20. Because of that I have a value with Minnesota.

Match Up
Bartolo Colon will start for Minnesota and his ERA is 6.25 to the season, in last 3 games ERA of 3.86. I rank him somewhere below league average and I don’t expect some extra performance from him. He is very experienced pitcher, he will go probably go around 5-6 innings and he collected 3 straight wins right now.

On the other side we have Odorizzi, who is in little bit bigger troubles right now. His pitching is not even close to great. In last 3 games he itched only 12 innings and he walked more (12) than he struck out (9). He lost his only game against Minnesota this season, when he allowed 4 walks and struck out only 4 hitters. Minnesota hitters combined batting average of .304 in 56 at bats against him.

Minnesota is better hitting team (4.9 runs per game versus 4.3 from Tampa) and I don’t see any huge advantage in bullpens.

Reason for pick
Minnesota is a team with winning record and currently I think we have better option with Colon on the mound. Odorizzi has been struggling little bit too much lately. If he will keep allowing home runs and walks, he will be in big troubles today against Minnesota. Bookmakers have Twins as an underdog and with that, they give them less than 50% of chance. I think this match will be much much closer, than most people think.

Play Minnesota (Colon)

 

DETROIT TIGERS (Sanchez) +113 at NITROGENSPORTS

* Bookmakers line: +113 (2.13)
* My Projected lines (math model): -125 (1.80)

Miguel Cabrera is suspended, but still Detroit Tigers even without him are a good team against left handed pitchers. This is one of the situations, when it is worth considering to take Detroit. They have winning record against lefties this season (19-18) and if we check their overall record is pretty bad (58-79). I expect little bit more from this team.

But yes, they are good against lefties and they score 5.2 runs per game aganst them with batting average of 0.278.
Kansas on the other side is playing for wild card and they need wins. They won in a close game yesterday, but today they will start with left handed pitcher and I think this is not situation for them. First of all Vargas is a left handed pitcher, who already lost a game against Detroit this season, when he allowed 6 runs in just 2 innings. Secondly, he is not playing well right now. He lost 3 straight games with ERA of 7.47 and allowed 4 home runs in last 2 games.

Detroit on the other side will start with Anibal Sanchez, who is not playing well too, but he is 6-5 against Kansas with ERA of 2.68. Despite he lost this season game against them, I think with current form from both pitchers, I don7t see any big pitching advantage on any side.

Detroit is playing well against lefties, they are playing without Martinez and Cabrera, but late in the season, some younger guys are very motivated and yesterday Detroit collected 12 runs. Their batting average against lefties is among the best in the league and if they can score some runs today, I think we have a open game and nice home underdog.

Play Detroit (Sanchez)

TWO MLB bets to consider on Saturday – September 2nd

HOUSTON ASTROS (-1.5) -120

A lot of things happened for Houston Astros last days and this will be a special games tonight for them.
First of all they didn’t play their games at home since the “Harvey” came. I am talking about the hurricane and this is definitely very hard time for these people. Ironically they will start today’s game for the first time at home after the hurricane and their opposing pitcher will be another Harvey – Matt Harvey from Mets.
I believe, that this will be very emotional game for them and we all know, that they didn’t have the best time in last games. In fact they had negative month of August. So it was a very bad month for them. And I believe after all that things, they will do more than 100% in their first home game after the disaster. Not only, that they will be very motivated because of that, they also made a great job with acquiring Justin Verlander and I believe they are enough strong now to win World Series. If they can win it this year, that would be great story.
But let’s get to the game today and what will or what can or how will they play, we don’t know. This is just guessing and I like to stick with the facts and the numbers.
Bookmakers opened the odds in huge favor for Houston Astros. And the odds dropped of course. Public will be huge on them and this is the only thing that scares me. Most bettors act emotionally and will take this story into account as most important thing, even more than numbers.
But…
Even if I ignore all those things, my numbers are also on Houston Astros side.
First of all, my projected lines and winning percentages give around 78.37% of chance for Houston Astros. My fair odds on Houston are at around 1.28 and because most bookmakers offer us the odds of around 1.45 I think there is a small value with them. I usually stay away from odds below 1.7, but if you are willing to take a run line in this game, I think Astros are the play.
Houston Astros will play with Charlie Morton, who is 10-6 to the season with ERA of 3.88 and he struck out 130 hitters in 118 innings this season.
On the other side Mets will start with Harvey, once really good pitcher, but after the injuries he is simply not the same. And guess what, he is coming back from injury here too. He played the last game on 14th June and his numbers this season are not great. Not even close to Morton’s numbers. ERA 5.25, 35/54 (BB/K) in 70 innings pitched and 16 home runs allowed in 13 games.
So, we have pitching advantage with Astros and they also have much better bullpen. I have ranked their bullpen as top 3 in the league, while Mets below league average bullpen.
And when it comes to hitting, Astros score 5.5 runs/game versus right handed pitchers, while Mets 4.7.
If we take all the things that happened in last days and all the motivation behind that, I think this is one of those games, where they can win by couple of runs. Better team, better pitcher, better bullpen, huge motivation to give their fans some hope, happiness,…
Play Houston Astros (Morton) -1.5
Note: Be careful. Today we have two games between Houston and Mets. This prediction is for a game, where Morton and Harvey start.

San Diego Padres (Richard) +140

LA Dodgers beat San Diego yesterday and they were playing with their best player and probably the best pitcher in the world Clayton Kershaw. But it was not that easy win, because Dodgers didn’t score much. They just scored one run and because of amazing performance by Kershaw, they beat San Diego.
In last 7 days, they score only 2.4 runs/game and their record is just 2-5. They cooled off little bit and I think this is the chance for San Diego today. And hitting is not the reason for that, as they are not the best hitting team, but I think that the Padres will have pitching advantage, which can be the difference today.
San Diego will start with Clayton Richard, left handed pitcher, who is 7-5 against the Dodgers in his career with ERA of 4.03 and his team’s record is 13-8 in those games. But what I like about him right now is that he is playing really well right now. In last 3 games, he struck out at least 6 hitters and his ERA in last 3 games is 3.74.
On the other side Dodgers will start with Stewart and I can not say the same. He started only 3 games this season and was hit badly. Not one bad game, not two bad games, but three straight bad games. He didn’t went more than 4 innings yet and he has more walks than strike outs (8 vs 5). I rank Richard much higher than Stewart.
Dodgers are still better team and I have projected pretty same numbers than bookmakers. I projected that San Diego should be an underdog of +133 (2.33) and I give them 42.32% of chance to win this game. But I also took league average numbers for Brock Stewart (as he doesn’t have enough games this season). And he is not showing us “league average numbers” so far, this is why I think, that San Diego will have a chance today with much better pitcher on the mound.
Note: be careful with pitchers, because today they are playing two games. This bet is for a game, where Richard and Stewart will play. If they will not play, this bet is canceled.
Play San Diego (Richard) @2.40

3 MLB Underdogs to consider on Sunday – 20th August

Toronto Blue Jays (Estrada) @ Chicago Cubs (Hendricks)

  • Bookmakers line: +167
  • My Projected lines (math model): +146

Chicago Cubs beat Toronto yesterday, but it was a close game and bookmakers have Toronto as a nice underdog today too. Public will be for sure on Cubs side, we all know that and I believe, that Toronto will have more chances today, than most people think.

We can get Toronto at some bookies at around 2.70. I have projected, that Toronto will have 40.6% of chance to win this game. That gives me the odds at 2.46 (+146), which is less than bookmakers odds. Because of that, there is a small value with Toronto.

Marco Estrada will start for Toronto and he has been great in the past against Chicago Cubs. His record against them is 6-1 (7-2 team record) and Cubs hitters combined batting average of only .152. The worst numbers have Rizzo (24 ab, 0.083) and Heyward (11 ab, 0.091).

Hendricks on the other side posted ERA of 2.04 in last 3 games, but don’t be fooled by this number, because he also walked 9 hitters in lat 17 innings. In last 2 games he walked 7 hitters and he do the same, we have couple of experienced hitters from Toronto, that will punish him.

I still think, that Cubs have better chance to win this game, but if we look at value perspective, there is some value with Toronto Blue Jays, this is why I recommend to play Toronto small.

Recommended underdog play: Toronto Blue Jays (Estrada) +167 at Nitrogensports

2017-05-01

 

LA Dodgers (Maeda) @ Detroit Tigers (Verlander)

  • Bookmakers line: +140
  • My Projected lines (math model): +142

Dodgers beat Tigers yesterday and Detroit will definitely want to avoid a sweep at home today. But of course this should not be a reason behind this bet.

I have projected, that Detroit should be an underdog of around 2.42 and this is the same what bookmakers offer us right now. So, there is no mathematical value based on my betting model in this game.

Justin Verlander will start for Detroit and he is 5-2 at home this season with ERA of 2.93. In last couple of games, he played really well and I rank both pitchers the same. But because he is playing well at home and his numbers at home this season has been great I will give him small advantage.

Maeda on the other side has been very good too, but on the road his ERA is 4.44 and he pitches 4.9 innings per game (10 games this season).

If we take into account, that Dodgers will play without Belinger, who is important player for them, I think that Tigers can upset them today and avoid a home sweep.

Recommended underdog play: Detroit Tigers (Verlander) at Lunarbets

 

2017-05-01
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Seattle Mariners (Gallardo) @ Tampa Bay Rays (Snell)

  • Bookmakers line: +133
  • My Projected lines (math model): -103

Tampa Bay Rays are struggling right now. In last 12 games, they won only 2 games. On the other side Seattle Mariners are playing great. Despite they almost screwed the game yesterday after they were leading by 7-2 I still think, they are overall better team.

Better bullpen, better attack (4.7 runs vs 4.3 runs from Tampa) and when we take a look at today’s pitching, we have two below league average pitchers.

Gallardo is not playing well right now, but I also see some troubles with Snell on the other side. He will play on 4 days rest and Tampa Bay lost 12 out of 15 games when he pitched on 4 days rest.

Seattle is 9-2 in last 11 games in Tampa Bay and 16-5 in last 21 meetings.

My betting model has this game at 50-50 and because there is some value with Seattle with the odds at 2.33, I recommend  an underdog play on Seattle.

Recommended underdog play: Seattle Mariners (Gallardo) +133 at Cloudbet

2017-05-01
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Sports Betting Prediction: Chicago Cubs (Jake Arrieta) at Chicago White Sox (James Shields)

My Projected Lines and the odds

White Sox and Cubs are playing 4 game series with two games already played in Wrigley Field and now, they are moving to play two games in White Sox ballpark. This is the rivalry from the same city and those games are always interesting. In the first two games, they split wins. White Sox won the first game and they lost yesterday. In both games, they were huge underdog and in first two games playing on White Sox was profitable. Bookmakers opened the odds at around +200 (3.00) on White Sox and then later odds dropped on Cubs and right now we can get White Sox at around +240 (3.4), which I think is little bit too much. I have projected, that White Sox should be an underdog, but only at the price of +131 (2.31). My math model gives 56.7% of chance to the Cubs and 43.3% of chance to White Sox. So, if you want to bet your house on this game Cubs still have better chances, but if you invest long term and if you are looking for a value, than I think we have some value with White Sox today.


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Match Up

First of all this is rivalry and in such games anything can happen and historical numbers are on White Sox side when it comes to interleague games here are some interesting past numbers. White Sox record in interleague games since 1997 is 208-172, +34.3 units. On the other side Cubs have negative record since 1997 165-170, -19.4.

Cubs will start with Arrieta, who is 9-7 to the season with ERA of 4.1 and the Cubs will definitely have pitching advantage at the start of the game, because I rank him higher than James Shields on the other side who will start for the White Sox.


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But still, I don’t think, that James Shields is totally without chances here. He pitched 4 times against the Cubs in his career and he never lost a game. Not only, that he didn’t lose any games against them, but also his team is 4-0 in those games. Last year, he beat Cubs, when he went 7.7 innings and didn’t allow any run. He allowed only 4 hits. Then one game before that in 2015, he had one of the best games in his career. He went 7 innings against the Cubs and he struck out 11 hitters. And one game before that (2015) he went 6 innings and struck out 9 hitters. So, he has very good history playing against the Cubs.

Of course I am not fooled by those numbers and he is definitely not shining this season. But he will face Cubs team, that doesn7t have the best numbers against right handed pitchers this season. Batting average of 0.236, record: 35-41. So he will face a team, that has batting average below league average against right handed pitchers and he will face a team, who has negative record against right handed pitchers.

Reason for pick

We are not talking about winners. This is the topic for sports fans. We are talking about the price, that we need to pay in this game and the chances, that were offered by bookmakers. I don’t say, that White Sox have better chance to win this game, in fact I say, that they have less than 50% of chance winning this game. My projected numbers show, that White Sox will have around 43.3% of chance in this game. In this situation, I would expect, that if I bet on White Sox and if they win, that bookmakers pay me at least 1.31 units of profit for my every 1 unit risked. But they offer me more. If I bet on White Sox on 5Dimes right now, I get the price of +240 (3.40) and because of that bookmakers will pay me 2.4 units of profit if White Sox win of course. This is 1.19 more, than I would expect. I also like that James Shields  played well against the Cubs and I also like the fact, that this is city derby and anything can happen. I think we have a very nice odds on White Sox today.

Play White Sox (Shields) +240 5Dimes


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MLB Sports Betting Predictions – Milwaukee Brewers (Guerra) at Cincinnati Reds (Adleman)

My Projected Lines and the odds

Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers will start a series and it looks like majority of bettors will be Milwaukee side. There is probably couple of reason for that and one of those is that Milwaukee is 8-5 in last 13 games, while Cincinnati won only 2 games in last 13 games. Bookmakers still set Cincinnati as a favourite here and Milwaukee as an underdog. We can get Cincinnati at around 1.79. Based on my predictive model, I have projected, that Cincinnati should have a chance of around 60.7% to win this game and because of that my projected odds on Cincinnati are at 1.65 (US odds -155). Bookmakers offer me 1.79 on Cincinnati and because of that there is calculated vale for me with the Reds.

Match Up

Cincinnati beat Washington 2 days ago and then they lost another game against St Louis on the road. I mentioned, that they have only 2 wins in last 13 games, but we must also include home/away factor here, because Cincinnati played all those games on the road and the only series in this stretch was at home against top team – LA Dodgers. Those road games were tough for them, but at home they have winning record of 19-18.

Cincinnati will start with Adleman, who is 4-4 to the season with ERA of 4.43, but he has winning home record of 3-1 with ERA of 4.15. Seven Milwaukee batters saw him in the past and combined 23 at bats and batting average of 0.174.

On the other side we have Junior Guerra, who is 1-1 to the season with ERA 3.11, but don’t be fooled by his ERA numbers, because those numbers don’t show us the whole picture about this pitcher. His BB/K ratio is just 22/27 in 37.7 innings pitched this season. In last 3 starts he allowed 3 runs in each game and he walked more than he struck out. Not only, that he struck less than he walked, but he also walked 13 hitters and allowed 4 home runs in last 18 innings.

Reason for pick

Cincinnati struggled last weeks, but they also had pretty tough schedule. They played most of the games on the road and the only home series in this stretch was at home versus Dodgers. And we all know that Dodgers are the best team in National League and second best in whole MLB (W-L record). Today they will face a shaky pitcher, who walks a lot of hitters. Cincinnati has winning record at home, they score 5.5 runs per game at home, which is more than Milwaukee in this situation (road: 4.5). Cincinnati scores 5.1 runs per game versus right handed pitchers, while Milwaukee 4.6. And when we take into account that Milwaukee has slightly weaker bullpen in this situation, I think that we have a bet on Cincinnati for this price. Not big play, but I think Cincinnati above 1.77 is a good play for 1 unit.

Play Cincinnati (Adleman) -126

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