Betting analysis: Dallas Stars at New Jersey Devils

The odds dropped on New Jersey today despite public will be more with Dallas today and there are couple of things, that are against Devils here.

First off all, they played yesterday and they will play this game on 0 days rest. Secondly, they will play with their back up goalie. And thirdly, Dallas will be well rested with 2 days off.

And despite all those things, the odds dropped on New Jersey and right now, you can get them at 2.40 on Bitcoinrush.

My projected odds:

Game Projected Goalie SV% P# GF/G GA/G xOFF+ xDEF+ PP PK Win% Odds US Odds Totals
Dallas Stars Kari Lehtonen 0.913 15 3.00 2.88 101 95 18 16 56.15% 1.78 -128
5.77
New Jersey Devils Keith Kinkaid 0.893 8 3.13 3.07 105 105 9 9 43.85% 2.28 128

 

Bookmakers would pay me $140 on Devils if I bet on them and if they win, of course. According to my numbers, they should be at +128 (2.28) and there is tiny value with Devils. I already included b2b factor and also Keith Kinkaid, who will be in the net for New Jersey and there is still small value with them.

I rank both teams pretty same. Devils are 8th best team in NHL based on points, Dallas is 15th best, but if we check the numbers we have pretty same teams here.

But I still like Devils more here and here are the reasons:

FIRST REASON: Dallas Stars could be overrated here after two wins against NY teams

In last 5 games they won 2 times, but what is more interesting for me is that they score only 2.4 goals in this stretch and allowed 3.2 goals per game. They were struggling in PP, because they couldn’t score in last 11 power play opportunities and on the other side their PK was struggling with only 57.1% success. League average is 80.7%.

SECOND REASON: Dallas has losing road record and when those two teams met in the past home is 14-6

Dallas is 8-10 on the road and this is one of those teams, that is playing much better at home. They score 2.6 goals per game on the road and allow 3.2. For comparison, New Jersey Devils are 7-7 at home with 2.9 goals for and 2.9 goals against.

THIRD REASON: No big advantage in the net

I don’t see any advantage here in the net. Lehtonen has slightly better season, but he didn’t reach SV% of more than 0.906 in last 3 seasons. Kinkaid finished last season with SV% of 0.916 and he is 0.910 career goalie. I don’t see any advantage here.

FOURTH REASON: New Jersey is money this season from betting perspective

There are teams, that are slightly underrated this season by bookmakers and also by better. Vegas is one of those teams and also New Jersey. Those are the teams, that are playing above expectations, but we still get better odds or the value if you like. If you bet on New Jersey this season you would make +7.7 units of profit.

FIFTH REASON: The price

We have New Jersey at home as a pretty big underdog against pretty same team. The reason is B2B game? Hm… I don’t know. New Jersey are 5-2 in last 7 games following overtime on the previous day. They played yesterday an overtime game, but I think they still should not be +140 at home. The reason is that they play with Kinkaid? Maybe, but as i said, I don’t see any huge advantage here in the net. Lehtonen is playing well right now, but this is still small sample size and I would not give any huge advantage to any team here in the net.

And of course my betting model slightly favours Devils here

RECOMMENDED BET: NEW JERSEY DEVILS 2.40 (US +140) Bitcoinrush

 

Saturday - December 16, 2017

Professor MJ: NFL Picks for Week #15!

Hello faithful readers, how are you doing today? Last week I mentioned that I was looking to raise my success rate back above 60% before the NFL regular season ends. We took a good step towards this objective by going 2-0 with our picks as the Panthers upset the Vikings while the Ravens covered the spread in Pittsburgh. We also won both of our leans, as the Falcons and the Broncos both won as slight underdogs.

Let’s get it rolling with more picks this week, let’s dive into the details right now!

PICK #1: New York Giants +7.5 vs Philadelphia Eagles

It will be very interesting to see how Nick Foles does as the new Eagles’ starting quarterback after all-star Carson Wentz went down with a torn ACL, an injury that ended his season. The Eagles currently hold the best record in the NFL, as well as the best point differential in the league.

Nick Foles has been in the league since 2012, where he compiled 56 TD passes versus 27 interceptions. While those numbers sound great, they are greatly inflated by an astounding 2013 season where he racked up 27 touchdowns against only 2 picks. So if you look at his numbers since 2014, he has thrown 23 TD passes against 20 interceptions, which is not great at all. Also, he might need a little bit of time to adjust to game speed considering he has only attempted 14 passes this year and 55 last season. In other words, he hasn’t been playing much over the past two years.

Even though the Giants’ season has been over for a while, they will be motivated to play in this heated rivalry. Such games involving opponents that hate each other tend to be close more often than not.

Moreover, the Eagles have been traveling quite a bit of late. This weekend’s game will be their third straight on the road, after playing a couple of matches on the West Coast, more specifically in Seattle and Los Angeles. It will also represent a fourth road game in five matches. That’s a tough stretch.

After winning a high-profile game at the Rams, the Eagles might take the 2-11 Giants a bit lightly, while the Giants will certainly want to rebound after dropping a 30-10 decision against the Cowboys. The score sounds worse than it truly was since the game was tied at 10 apiece through three quarters.

The Giants will also be looking to avenge a 27-24 loss in Philly earlier this year.

PICK #2: Buffalo Bills -3.5 vs Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins pulled off a great upset by beating the Patriots 27-20 in the Monday Nighter. I expect a letdown after such an emotional game, especially with one fewer day to prepare for this key matchup with the Bills.

Buffalo will be more rested than Miami, not only because of the additional day of preparation, but also because this game will be their third consecutive at New Era Field. These two teams hate each other, with the revenge factor going to Buffalo since they lost both meetings by a 3-point margin in 2016.

The Bills are expected to get quarterback Tyrod Taylor back from an injury, which is a good timing since backup Nate Peterman suffered a concussion last week. Wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin was limited at Wednesday’s practice, but he should be good to go. Playing in the blizzard last week probably didn’t help healing his injured knee, but it didn’t prevent him from making a key touchdown catch against the Colts.

Over their last five visits in Orchard Park, the Dolphins are 1-4 against the spread. As of now, the weather forecast does not involve any snowfall on Sunday, but the temperature should be around 0 degree Celsius (or 32 degrees Farenheit). Playing in the cold could help the Bills a little bit.

LEAN: Denver Broncos -2.5 at Indianapolis Colts

The Broncos finally snapped an 8-game losing streak by handling the New York Jets pretty easily last week. They looked great and seemed to have found their rhythm back. Their defense looked good early in the season, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they finish the season strong. They do have some nice talent on this side of the ball.

Meanwhile, the Colts suffered a significant blow when they lost their top cornerback, Rashaan Melvin, to an injury a couple of weeks ago. Their secondary is now awful, and I do believe Trevor Siemian is capable of taking advantage of them with good weapons like Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders at his disposal.

VERY SLIGHT LEAN: Kansas City Chiefs +1 vs Los Angeles Chargers

I’m tempted to take the Chiefs as slight underdogs at home against the red-hot Chargers, even though L.A. will be looking for revenge after losing 24-10 at home against those same Chiefs on week #3. However, I do believe K.C. could be back on track following a critical 26-15 win over Oakland, after going through a difficult 4-game losing streak. The Chiefs will also be at home for a third time over the past four weeks, while the Chargers will need to travel through a couple of time zones on a shorter week since the game is scheduled for Saturday.

DISCUSSING THE PATRIOTS-STEELERS GAME

My initial thought was to bet New England in this one because they tend to strike back after a loss. As a matter of fact, Belichick’s team has beaten the spread the last six times coming off a straight up loss.

I also wonder if there is enough gas left in the tank for Pittsburgh after going through a couple of emotional games against the Bengals and the Ravens. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying they won’t be motivated for this game; I’m just asking whether they will have enough energy left to put up a good fight.

Le’Veon Bell got his knee bent in last week’s game, and it seemed to affect him as he struggled to find running lanes. Those of are planning to bet the Steelers might have to worry about his health.

What prevents me from pulling the trigger on New England is how they will be playing a third straight road game, while the Steelers have been at home for four out of the past five weeks (where the only game on the road was in Cincinnati, so not that far). Getting an extra day of rest compared to the Pats also plays in favor of Mike Tomlin’s team.

That’s the conclusion of this weekly NFL write-up, I hope you enjoyed it! Just a quick reminder that it’s important to have an account with many sportsbooks in order to be able to shop for the best line, which is critical to your success in the sports investing business. My website is providing a list of 20 online bookmakers, each getting a grade out of 100% along with a brutally honest review. I invite you to check them out here.

All right, so this is it for today, thank you so much for joining me, I appreciate a lot, and I hope you’ll be back next time. This is Professor MJ saying so long!

Betting analysis – Washington Capitals at Boston Bruins

Very interesting line movement on this game. I didn’t expect such a movement today, because the odds dropped on Boston despite they played yesterday and according to some information that I have, public will be with Washington…

The odds opened at around +105 (2.05) on Washington and then went up to around 2.20.

My projected odds

In last couple of days I was working on my NHL betting model, because I was not satisfied with the old one. I was struggling at the start of the NHL season and it was time for a change. And of course I am here to fight back and try to improve the things.

So, I projected the odds for this game with new betting model:

Game Goalie SV% P# GF/G GA/G xOFF+ xDEF+ PP PK Win% Odds US Odds Totals
Washington Capitals Braden Holtby 0.918 10 3.13 2.91 108 97 8 18 44.54% 2.25 125
5.41
Boston Bruins Anton Khudobin 0.922 11 2.89 2.75 99 87 14 3 55.46% 1.80 -125

I have projected exactly the same odds that we see now by bookmakers. I have Washington at around +125 (2.25) and the bookmakers offer pretty same odds than this. So, there is no value on this game and me personally stayed away from it. But let’s see if we can find some advantage here and make some good bet.

I rank Washington for 8% better than league average in offence, but they will face Boston that has better defence (13% better than league average).

But leave the numbers for now and I will focus on three things that are interesting here…

FIRST: Goalies

Braden Holtby will start for Washington and he is 17-7 to the season, 6-3 at home and his SV% is 0.918. He has 75% quality start rate and according to GAA%- this season he is 93, which means, that he is better than league average. He is constantly good and his career SV% is 0.921.

On the other side we have Anthon Khudobin, who has a great year. He played much more this season, and holds SV% of 0.922. He is also 7-3. His GAA%- is 88 and is slightly better than Holtby. But we also must understand, that he is still second goalie and in last 3 seasons he didn’t reach Sv% of more than 0.910.

Khudobin has a great year, but I would still give the edge to Washington here, because they have better overall goalie, who is playing constantly good couple of seasons now.

SECOND: Rest Factor

Boston is playing on a back-to-back. They played yesterday in Detroit and I can tell you, that this was not an easy win. They beat Detroit in OT and they should be little bit more tired. They won only 5 out of last 19 games, when they played on B2B (0 days rest).

Washington on the other side is playing on 1 day rest. And they are 47-15 in last 62 games with 1 day rest.

THIRD: Washington has very good record against Boston

Washington is 5-0 in last 5 games in Boston and they beat them in 21 out of 26 last games overall.

Injuries:

Washington is still playing without T.J. Oshie, but they are still doing well. They won 5 out of last 6 games.

Boston is without Spooner, Cehlarik and MacQuaid and they will probably be without Miller tonight.

Conclusion and the pick:

I don’t like two things here: Model doesn’t show me any value and the line movement + public is against my bet.

But if I take also other information, I would lean with Washington. First of all, I think that Washington has a better goalie, despite very good season by Khudobin. Secondly, Boston is playing on 0 days rest and they had a tough game yesterday. Wasington is rested for this game. After all, Boston has very bad recent record on B2B games. And I can not ignore very good record by Washington against Boston. It looks like they like to play against Boston and if they are more tired, even better. Both teams are on a good run and I think small things can decide this game. And I would rather take less tired team here. After all Washington beat Boston in more than 80% games in last seasons.

RECOMMENDED BET: Washington Capitals 2.19 (+119) at Nitrogensports

 

Vote for tomorrow’s game:

Betting Analysis – Dallas Stars at New York Islanders

Dallas Stars beat Islanders this season by 5-0 at home and this was one of the biggest losses for Islanders. The question is can they revenge at home that loss.

The opening odds were ate around 2.15 on Dallas Stars and 1.78 on Islanders. At the start of the day the first line movement happened when the odds dropped on Dallas. This is the time when I took Islanders and after that I didn’t watch the lines anymore.

But right now we have Islanders at around 1.75 and it looks like that the odds dropped on home team, but we also must understand that the public will be with New York team.

My projected odds

Game P# GF/G GA/G xOFF+ xDEF+ PP PK Win% Odds US Odds Totals
Dallas Stars 16 2.94 2.90 98 95 18 14 39.98% 2.50 150
6.30
New York Islanders 10 3.60 3.33 120 113 14 30 60.02% 1.67 -150

I have projected that Islanders will have around 60% of chance to win this game and my fair odds on the are at 1.67. Because bookmakers offer me more, there is a value with Islanders.

I rank their offence better than league average and also better than Dallas Stars offence. But on the other side I rank Dallas defence better and Islanders have below average defence with 3.33 goals allowed.

Home vs Away importance

I think here is one thing, that can not be ignored. We have Islanders on one side that is very strong home team (9-3) and in the last game, they beat Washington by 3-1. On the other side we have Dallas, that is not playing that well on the road. Yes, they have good overall record (17-14) but when it come to away games, they are just 7-10.

From the numbers point, Islanders score unrealistic 4.5 goals per game at home. On the other side Dallas stars only 2.5 on the road.

Dallas allows 3.3 goals per game on the road, while Islanders 3.1.

Goalies

Islanders will start with Halak, who is 9-7 to the season with SV% of 0.909, but pay attention to this: He is 5-0 this season at home with SV% of 0.924.

Dallas will start with Lehtonen, their back up goalie and he was also the reason for late line movement. He is 5-3 to the season with SV% of 0.909, which is exactly the same than Halak on the other side.

According to GA%- we have exactly the same goalis (both have GA%- 103) and I don’t see any huge advantage. Depends on who will have better day. But if we take into account Halak’s performances at home this season, then Islanders could have small advantage.

Past meetings and trends

Dallas Stars lost 4 straight games in New York and the home team is 6-1 in last 7 meetings. Note also, that Dallas is 8-38 in their last 56 road games and they are just 17-36 following a win (they won the last game).

Islanders are 5-2 in last 7 games against Western teams and they are very string home team.

Injuries

Hickey, Prince and Kulemin are out for Islanders. Boychuk is questionable. Boychuk is third most important defender for Islanders.

Dallas on could miss Antoine Roussel and they already without Martin Hanzal and Marc Methot. None of these players is a key player.

Conclusion and the pick

I took Islanders wt the time, when they were at 1.91 and I think that I took them at the right time. The odds dropped and if you can find something around 1.80 there is still value on Islanders.

We have one very strong home team versus losing road team. There could be some extra motivation from home team, because they lost on the road in Dallas by 5-0. I don’t see any huge advantage in the net, maybe I even lean with Halak more, because he has been outstanding at home this season. Because of that I would recommend Islanders here.

RECOMMENDED BET: NY ISLANDERS 1.77 (US -130) at Bitcoinrush

Betting Analysis – Los Angeles Kings at New Jersey Devils

Bookmakers opened the odds of around 2.25 (+125) on New Jersey Devils, but during the day those odds dropped, despite I think, that most people will still will be with Los Angeles.

Right now Nitrogensports offer underdog odds of 2.04 (+104) on New Jersey Devils and 1.852 (-117) on Los Angeles Kings.

My projected odds

Game P# GF/G GA/G xOFF+ xDEF+ PP PK Win% Odds US Odds Totals
Los Angeles Kings 3 3.13 2.19 106 77 25 1 50.52% 1.98 -102
6.15
New Jersey Devils 9 3.07 3.14 103 107 11 10 49.48% 2.02 102

I have projected that this game could be one really close game, where any team can win and this is exactly what I expected. I rank both offences little bit above league average and I rank New Jersey Devils defence weaker than Los Angeles with xDEF- number of 107.

Los Angeles Kings are on a very good streak right now….

Los Angeles Kings won 8 straight games and what is even more impressive is that they beat couple of very good teams, like St Louis, Chicago and Washington. All those three big wins on the road. And it is for sure, that they are red hot.

They score 3.13 goals per game and allow only 2.19. Their defence was always strong as it was their physical play, but this season they also score more. We must not forget, that this team with Kopitar, Bron, Quick, Doughty and some other players won 2 Stanley cups not so long ago. And they look dangerous this season again.

New Jersey Devils is a winning team this season…

Devils score 3.07 goals per game, but their problem is their defence, because they allow 3.14 goals per game. But in general, they are playing well and they are especially good in recent games against teams, that have good road record (above 0.600). They beat them in 4 out of last 5 games.

Cory Schneider for Devils

He will be in the net for New Jersey and it is already confirmed. He is their best goalie and holds the record of 12-9 with SV% of 0.919. In last 4 games his SV% was even better (0.924). His GAA%- is 92 and he is ranked better than league average goalie. He is 0.922 career goalie, which is pretty good and he also have very solid numbers against the Kings in his career (SV% 0.921).

Kings with Jonathan Quick? Probably

There is still no information, who will be in the net for the Kings, but I believe, that this will be Quick. What to say about him? He is one of the best goalies in the World and he is 15-9 to the season with SV% of 0.930. His numbers on the road are even better if we talk about the record (8-3) and his SV% constantly good at home and on the road. He is 0.917 career goalie, which is little bit less than Scheider and his Sv% against the Devils is 0.929  (8 games).

Trends

Kings beat New Jersey on the road in 6 out of 7 games. They have amazing record of 21-8 against Eastern teams and they are playing on 2 days rest. So they should not be tired here. They are 6-2 in last 8 games with 2 days rest.

Devils are 4-1 against good road teams (teams with road record more than 0.600). They are also playing on 2 days rest, but they are just 3-8 in this situation. They also have bad overall record against good winning teams (overall win record 0.600 or more). They are just 15-36 against good teams.

Injuries

Devils are playing without Kyle Palmieri and Mirco Mueller. They could be also without Marcus Johansson, who is questionable for this game. Palmieri and Johansson have collected together 16 points. They are not most important players for this team, but Devils will miss them for sure in this game. Mirco Mueller is not important.

Los Angeles Kings are playing without Jeff Carter and Kyle Clifford. They are not a factor in this game, because they didnt play much and Kings results are not affected by those two players.

Conclusion and the pick

According to my numbers, there is no mathematical value in this game. The odds dropped and right now we have basically close to 50-50 game and this is what my model predicted.

So, I will use traditional handicapping style here to make a prediction. When it comes to the goalies, I think that Quick has better season and especially he has much better defence around him. After all Kings have the best defence in the league.

When it comes to offence, Devils and Kings score more than 3 goals per game, but Kings are on a very good streak right now, which will end at some point, but this is not necessary today.

Both teams are well rested for this game and Kings are better in situation when they have 2 days rest.

Devils have more important injuries than Los Angeles too.

This is why I lean with the Kings, because there are more information, that support Los Angeles than new Jersey Devils.

RECOMMENDED BET: Los Angeles Kinngs 1.852 (US -117) at Nitrogensports

Vote for tomorrow’s game here:

Betting Analysis – Dallas Stars at New York Rangers

The odds are dropping on Dallas Stars in this game, despite more people will be with the Rangers today. The bookmakers opened the odds at around +120 on Dallas and -133 on Rangers. Right now we can get

Dallas Stars +104 / 2.04
New York Rangers -115 / 1.87

on Bitcoinrush.

What is the reason for such a drop on Dallas during the day?

First of all, both teams are playing with their back up goalies and the Rangers will play without Zabinejad, who is their second goal scorer. So those could be some of the reasons why odds dropped on Dallas, but let’s start with my projected odds:

H/A Game P# GF/G GA/G xOFF+ xDEF+ PP PK Win% Odds US Odds Totals
Away Dallas Stars 18 2.97 2.97 100 96 16 12 0.42 2.36 136
6.13
Home New York Rangers 14 3.38 3.00 116 101 10 11 0.58 1.73 -136

I have projected that Rangers will have 58% of chance to win this game and My fair odds would be at around -136 on Rangers, which is exactly the same than opening odds by bookmakers. But because the odds went up, I have small value with the Rangers in this game.

I rank Rangers offence for 16% better than league average and I have their defence slightlty weaker than league average. Dallas offence is just average and defence slightly better than league average.

But when it comes to real numbers, Rangers score 3.38 goals per game, Dallas 2.97. The difference is even bigger if we take into account home field advantage this season, where Rangers score 3.5 goals per game at home and Dallas only 2.5 on the road.

Strong home team vs weak road team

I think this is one thing that I can not ignore here. Rangers are 12-7 this season at hoe and they won 10 out of last 11 home games. Not only, that they have winning record at home, they also outplayed other teams at home by shots and goals as well. Their shot diff at home is +2 shots per game and +0.9 goals per game.

Dallas on the other side totally different story. They are in fact winning team this season, but most of those wins came at home, where they have very good record of 10-4, but their record on the road is just 6-10, where they are outplayed by 0.9 goals per game.

Goalie match up

I think this is one of the most interesting things in this game, because we will see two backup goalies. With backup goalies it is always little bit harder to predict how they will respond, but let’s check their numbers and how they play this season and what are their career numbers, so we get better picture about what we can expect from them.

Dalls Stars will start with Kari Lehtonen, who is 4-3 to the season, 2-3 on the road and his season SV% is 0.903. According to GAA%- 110 is is just below league average. His career SV% is 0.912, but this number is affected from his games in his earlier seasons. In last 4 seasons his SV% is 0.903 and I have him as an average goalie in NHL.

Rangers on the other side will start with Ondrej Pavelec, who is 2-2 to the season with SV% of 0.899. Accordin to GAA%- 114 he is also little bit below league average and this is pretty same number than Lehtonen. I think that there will not be any huge advantage in the net. It depends which goalie will have better day, but I would not make any huge difference between those two goalies. Pavelec career number SV% is 0.907 and last season his SV% was 0.888, but he also didn’t play much (only 8 games)

Injuries

Rangers will play without Zabinejad, who is injured and he is important player for this team. He is their second best goals scorer.

Dallas on the other side will play for sure without Hanzal and Methot, who are not important. There are also two questionable players Roussel and Pateryn. Pateryn is their 5th most important defender and Roussel is a winger with 3 goals in 26 games.

Trends and interesting information

Dallas Stars are 4-1 against Metropolitan teams and they beat Rangers last season in one exciting game by 7-6 in New York. But they are not playing well on the road. This season, they are 6-10 on the road, they are also 17-38 in last 55 road games and when they play against good home teams, their record is just 5-14 (playing against teams with home record above 0.600)

Rangers on the other side are playing their third game in four nights and they are awful 2-8 in last 10 games in this situation. However, they are very strong home team this season and they 10-1 in last 11 home games. They also play well against winning teams (7-2) and they are playing on one day rest, where they are 7-2 in last 9.

Conclusion and the pick

I don’t like Rangers because of only two things. The first thing is that they will start with Pavelec, who is their second goalie, who started only 4 games this season (7 games overall). The second thing I don’t like is that Rangers will play without Zabinejad, who is their very good player.

But all other information support Rangers play. Dallas is totally different team on the road then at home and they will face very very good home team. Dallas lost 3 straight game right now and if we check the Rangers, they won 3 out of last 4 games. The only loss happened in Washington and even in that game, they were close and hold the game at 2-2 until the end, when Washington scored 2 goals. So, I would say, that Rangers are playing better than Dallas right now.

My betting model also supports Rangers here. I have projected, that they should be slightly bigger favourite, especially after the bookmakers dropped the odds on Dallas.

RECOMMENDED BET: NY RANGERS 1.87 (US odds -115) at Bitcoinrush

VOTE for Tomorrow’s game:

 

Betting Analysis – Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs

Bookmaker opened the odds at around +170 and then during the day they dropped them to around +135. This is a huge line movement, despite more than 60% of people will be still with Toronto.

So, why such a line movement here against Toronto Maple Leafs?

Toronto without Auston Matthews?

The latest information that I got is that Toronto could play this game without Auston Matthews. He is their point leaders and with Frederik Anderson the most important player for this team. I still don’t have confirmation about his status will be decided just before the game starts.

Toronto will play without Frederik Anderson

Maple Leafs will start this game without their first goalie, who will be rested. Instead of that, they will start with Curtis McElhinney.

How much are they worth and my projected lines?

The opening line on Toronto was around 1.53 (-190) by many bookmakers. After that the odds went up and right now you can get them for 1.63 with the best odds on Bitcoinrush and mbit.

My projected odds on this game with Auston Matthews and Frederik Anderson in the net:

H/A Game P# GF/G GA/G xOFF+ xDEF+ PP PK Win% Odds US Odds Totals
Away Edmonton Oilers 27 2.97 3.38 101 114 20 31 0.41 2.41 141
6.53
Home Toronto Maple Leafs 6 3.50 2.93 122 99 6 15 0.59 1.71 -141

 

My projected odds on this game without Auston Matthews and Frederik Anderson in the net:

H/A Game P# GF/G GA/G xOFF+ xDEF+ PP PK Win% Odds US Odds Totals
Away Edmonton Oilers 27 2.97 3.38 101 114 20 31 0.47 2.11 111
6.53
Home Toronto Maple Leafs 6 3.50 2.93 122 99 6 15 0.53 1.90 -111

My initial projected odds on Toronto were at 1.71 and then if I adjust those numbers I get them at around 1.90. Because of this I have small value right now on Edmonton Oliers

Match up

Toronto Maple Leafs are one of the best team this season. They are 6th best in NHL based on points, they score 3.5 goals per game and I rank their offence for 22% better than league average. Their main force is Auston Matthews, young superstar who might miss this game tonight. They are 9-5 at home, where they score 3.3 goals per game, but they also allow 3.2 goals. In last 5 games, they are 4-1 and they beat Pittsburgh yesterday on the road.

Edmonton Oilers have disappointing season with the record of 12-17. They score 3 goals per game, but their main problem is their defence, because they allow 3.4 goals per game. But they are coming to this game after a huge win yesterday against Montreal. They beat Montreal on the road by 6-2.

I rank Toronto for 22% better then league average in offensive statistics. Edmonton on the other side is just average offensive team. I also rank Toronto better in defence with xDEF- of 99. Edmonton Oilers are for 15% weaker defensive team than leage average defensive team.

Goalie match up

Both teams will start with their back up goalies. Edmonton is already playing without their best goalie Cam Talbot, because he is injured. He has been replaced by Laurent Brossoit, who is 2-5 to the season with SV% of 0.880.

Toronto on the other side will start with Curtis McElhinney, who is 2-2 to the season with SV% of 0.900.

If we check their GA%- rankings, Brossoit is weaker than league average goalie and McElhinney didn’t play enough games to be qualified for this ranking. But he is 0.904 career goalie, pretty same numbers that this season.

I don’t give any huge advantage here to any team. On one side we have Brossiot, who is playing more and because of this he should be more confident. He also knows, that he is their first goalie right now and this is his chance, because Cam Talbot is injured. On the other side we have more experienced player, but he didn’t play much this season.

Trends and interesting information

Edmonton Oilers have pretty bad record against Toronto and especially playing there. They lost 13 out of 16 games in Toronto and 25 out of 35 games overall against Maple Leafs. Home team is 5-2 in last 7 meetings and they played two times this season already, where both games ended with Toronto win. Note also that they scored 16 games in those two games.

Edmonton won yesterday and they are just 2-12 following a win.

Toronto beat Pittsburgh yesterday, but they are just 17-35 in last 42 games with 0 days rest.

Conclusion and the pick

My first thing that comes trough my mind is play over. But when I checked the bookmakers line for totals, they have set it at 6.5 and this is exactly the same then mine. We have two back up goalies, that have SV% below 0.900 and we have two very good offensive teams with a lot of  talented players, who can score. This smells like a high scoring game.

But the total is set right in my opinion and we are looking for the value here.

So, the next question is about value for moyeline. If Toronto will play without Matthews there is a value with Edmonton, but the problem is that he is game-time decision.

If he doesn’t play, I think that Toronto will be limited in offence. They are playing after yesterday’s game, where I think they had much tougher job than Edmonton on the other side. Edmonton will be also motivated and will try to revenge two losses this season. After yesterday’s win, they definitely gained some momentum.

I would wait for the latest information about Matthews and if he is not in the lineup, I would bet Edmonton for 2.35 (US +135) or more.

RECOMMENDED BET: EDMONTON OILERS at 2.44 (+144) at Bitcoinrush

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NY Islanders at Boston Bruins – Betting Analysis

Islanders and Bruins will play first game this season and according to current bookmakers prices, we can get Islanders for 2.38 (Us odds +138) and Boston at around 1.62 (Us odds -153).

The odds went up on Islanders during the day and bookmakers had them at around +120 in the morning. The public will be undecided in this one I believe and because Islanders are playing without Boychuk, this is also one of the reasons for this line movement.

But let’s start with projected odds.

H/A Game P# GF/G GA/G xOFF+ xDEF+ PP PK Win% Odds US Odds Totals
Away New York Islanders 10 3.71 3.43 123 116 9 30 52.09% 1.92 -109
6.34
Home Boston Bruins 14 2.88 2.85 97 90 17 4 47.91% 2.09 109

According to my betting model, we have wrong underdog here. I give Islanders more slightly more chances to win this game. My fair odds on Islanders are at 1.92 (-109). Because of the current odds by bookmakers, which are bigger than mine, I have a value with Islanders.

Match up

Islanders score 3.71 goals per game and I rank their offence for 23% better than league average offence. At the same time Boston score 2.88 goals per game and I rank their offence as a league average (3% weaker than league average).

If we check their numbers at home vs away, Islanders score 3.1 goals per game on the road, which is still very good. Boston score 3 goals per game at home.

Islanders are better offensively, but when it comes to defence, I must give advantage to Bruins. They have better defence and I rank their defence for 10% better than league average. They allow 2.85 goals per game and in last 5 games only 2.40. Islanders on the other side allow 3.43 goals per game and I rank their defence for 16% weaker than league average. When it comes to special teams, Islanders have 9th best power play, but they will face 4th best penalty kill.

In last 5 games Islanders allowed 4.4 goals per game, while Boston only 2.4 goals per game. But we also must understand, that Islanders had I think tougher schedule than Boston. They played the last three games against Florida, Tampa and Pittsburgh.

Goalie match up

Islanders will start with Jaroslav Halak. He is 8-6 to the season with Sv% of 0.903. According to GAA%- 109, he is just below league average goalie this season, but he is also 0.916 career goalie. What is interesting about him in this game is that he has very good numbers against Boston Bruins. He played 14 games against them in his career and holds the record of 8-6 (yes, exactly the same than this season overall) and his SV% is 0.930 and GAA 2.18. His numbers against Boston are third best against any team. Only against Islanders (before he started playing for them) and against the Devils he has better numbers.

Boston on the other side will start with Tuukka Rask. He is 6-10 to the season with SV% of 0.908 and he doesn’t have the best season so far. We were expecting more from “this career SV% of 0.922” goalie. His GAA%- is 104 and this is pretty same than Halak numbers. It is interesting, that he has losing record and if you bet Boston, when he was in the net, you would make a loss of 7.2 units this season. Boston has another goalie, that is playing much better this season – Khudobin is 7-3 this season. But of course, Rask is still their first goalie with much bigger contract and they will give hime more chances and if we check his numbers in last 4 games, his SV% is 0.951. I also checked his career numbers versus Islanders and he is 10-5 against them with SV% of 0.926 and GAA of 2.39.

So, both goalie have good numbers against today’s opponent, but I must give advantage to Rask here. After all he has better defence in front of him.

Trends and interesting information

There is couple of interesting information for both teams here. First of all, today is Saturday and Islanders have perfect 7-0 record this season playing on Saturday. Boston is just 3-4 on Saturdays. I don’t believe, that this will decide this game, but is definitely interesting information.

Islanders are much better team from betting perspective this season. If you bet on them whole season, you would make a profit of +4.2 units and if you bet on Boston whole season, you would make a loss of 3 units. The same story is with goalies. If you bet on Halak whole season, you would make a profit of +2.1 units, while at the same time Rask would make you a loss of -7.2 units.

Islanders are playing 4th game in 6 nights and they are 11-5 in last 16 games in this situation. Note also, that they are 5-2 in last 7 meetings in Boston and the road team is 5-1 in last 6 meetings.

Boston on the other side is playing on one day rest and they are just 4-14 in this situation and they are also 4-11 in last 15 games following a win (they won against Arizona in previous game). But they 16-5 against teams with losing road record (NYI 8-9 on the road) and they beat Islanders in 6 out of last 8 meetings.

Injuries

Islanders will probably play without Johnny Boychuk, they are for sure without Shane Prince and Nikolay Kulemin. Prince and Kulemin are not important for our analysis. Boychuk on the other side is their second most important defender and from defensive perspective if we exclude offensive contribution, he is their most important defenseman.

Boston will play without Ryan Spooner, Peter Cehlarik and Adam McQuaid. None of these players is really important here.

Conclusion and the pick

Boston will have small advantage in the net and if Boychuk will not play, Islanders will be little bit weaker in the defence. Boston is also playing better right now (winning 7 out of last 9 games). Those are all reasons to back Boston here.

On the other side Islanders are still better overall team this season. After all, they have collected more points and they have winning record (16-12), while Boston is sitting at 13-13. Islanders played the last two games against very tough opponent (Tampa and Pittsburgh). They lost, but I would not overreact here too much. Boston on the other side won the last game by 6-1, but it was against poor Arizona, the worst team in the league.

Islanders have good record playing in Boston and they beat Boston by 4-0 and 4-2 in last two visits there. After two losses they will step up here. They feel that this is their season and if they want to do something, they need to play against good teams. After two losses against Tampa and Pittsburgh, they can beat Boston here. I even like more Islanders against Rask in the net.

I think that this game is 50-50. My math model has Islanders at 52.09%, but I am still not sure if Boychuk will play or not. And even if he doesn’t play we get still Islanders at around 50%. According to current odds from bookmakers, that have Islanders at 2.37 (Us +137) I think that we have a value with them.

RECOMMENDED BET: NY ISLANDERS at 2.37 (Us +137) at Bitcoinrush

NHL betting analysis of the day – NYI at PIT

The public and bookmakers don’t like Islanders too much in this game. But this is something normal when Penguins play, because they are very attractive team for bettors all over the world. But if you bet blindly on them whole season, you would make a loss of 2.9 units (Profit: -2.9 units). On the other side if you bet on Islanders whole season, you would make a profit of 5.2 units (Profit: +5.2 units). When we talk about those two teams from betting perspective, the Islanders are more valuable team.

Bookmakers opened the odds at around 2.25 (Us odds +125) on Islanders and during the day those odds raised to 2.36 (Us odds +136). Bitcoinrush has the best odds on this game. They offer 2.37 (Us odds +137) on Islanders and 1.66 (-152) on Pittsburgh.

My projected odds

H/A Game P# GF/G GA/G xOFF+ xDEF+ PP PK Win% Odds US Odds Totals
Away New York Islanders 9 3.74 3.41 124 114 8 29 53.67% 1.86 -116
6.74
Home Pittsburgh Penguins 16 2.97 3.28 95 115 4 21 46.33% 2.16 116

 

According to my projected odds we have wrong underdog here. I have projected that Pittsburgh should be small underdog of +116 and I give them around 46.33% of chance, while at the same time I give Islanders around 53.67% of chance to win this game.

Because of the current odds by bookmakers, I have a value with New York Islanders in this game.

Islanders are winning team this season

Islanders are plying very good ice hockey this season. They are 16-11 to the season and they are 8-8 on the road. They score amazing 3.74 goals per game, which is even more than Pittsburgh and I rank their offence for 24% better than league average. Their power play is 8th best and I think that the offence is their main strength.

Pittsburgh is strong at home

Penguins are 15-14 to the season and honestly we were expecting more from last season champions. However, they are very good at home, where they hole the record of 9-4 and where they score 3.5 goals per game and allow 2.5 goals. Sports betting methods are different and there are all kind of betting methods that works and if you focus on home/away split in NHL, then you will definitely find a value with Penguins. But I will stick with their season performance, which is still not that good. They score 2.97 goals per game and I rank their offence little bit below league average. They score a lot of goals with extra players and yes I have in my mind extra attacker at the end of the game to. But if we check their 5 on 5 game, they are just 24th in the league. They score more than 50% of goals via power play and if you rely on power play a lot, this can be very tricky. They score 54 goals when they play even strength ice hockey and 28 power play goals. They also allow 68 even strength goals, so their goal difference when playing on even strength is -14. If we compare even strength with Islanders, Islanders scored 75 goals on even strength and allow 61 (diff: +14).

What I want to say with this?

Every team can score on power play, because this is the only focus in that 2 minutes. But the real strength is when you play 5 on 5 ice hockey. This is the situation, that teams face most most of the time. And Islanders are second best in the league with 75 even strength goals, while Pittsburgh 24th with negative goal differential of -14.

Goalie match up

Both teams struggle defensively. Both teams allow more than 3 goals per game and my xDEF- rank for Islanders is 114 and for Pittsburgh is 115. It tells us, that Islanders are for 14% weaker than league average defence and Pittsburgh is for 15% weaker than league average defence.

The defence is a combination of good/bad goalies and good/bad teammates in defensive duties. And I think both teams focus more on offence than on defence

Pittsburgh is without their first goalie, who is injured. They are playing with Tristan Jarry, who is 3-3 to the season with SV% of 0.926, which is pretty good so far. But he is still very unexperienced and young (22) goalie and those numbers are very small sample size to make final conclusion.

Islanders will start with Halak, who is 8-5 to the season with Sv% of 0.905. He is splitting his playing time with Thomas Greiss, which is not necessary that bad, because Islanders have always fresh goalie. Halak is 0.919 career goalie, he is much experienced than Jarry on the other side and I would give Islanders small advantage here, despite his numbers are nothing special this season.

But if we check his career numbers against Pittsburgh, he is 8-5-1, SV%.926 and GAA 2.28 against them. Those numbers are very good and he had some success against Penguins in the past.

Interesting information and trends

Islanders are much better team than last year. They are building this team for couple of years now and they have playoff quality this season. What I want to point out here is that always when they lost by 3 goals or more, they bounced back in the next game. They are 10-1 in last 11 games after they lost a game by 3 goals or more. In the last game, they lost against Tampa Bay by 6-2 and they will do everything here to bounce back after big loss. They are also 20-7 after they allowed 5 goals or more in their previous game.

There are couple of not so good situation for them. Islanders are playing the third game in 4 nights and they are just 3-7 in last 10 games. They also lost 15 out of last 21 games on the road against very good home teams (home win% above 0.600). Islanders also don’t have the best record in Pittsburgh (7-22) and they lost 36 out of 53 meetings.

Pittsburgh on the other side is 43-14 at home. They are very strong home team and they are 82-39 in last 121 gams versus Eastern teams. Note also, that Pittsburgh is playing on 1 day rest and they are 66-30 in last 96 games on 1 day rest.

Injuries

Islanders will be without Shane Prince, Casey Cizikas and Nikolay Kulemin. None of these players is key player and they can be replaced today.

Pittsburgh is playing without Matt Murray, who is injured and they will probably play without Justin Schultz. According to point shares is Matt Murray second most important player for this team and Schultz (if he will not play) is third most important defender and second most important defensive defender (Letang is offensive defender).

I think, that Islanders will small advantage here, because they have all key players in the lineup. On the other side Murray is a big miss for Pittsburgh. Don’t forget, that they rely now on 22-year old unexperienced goalie Jarry. If Pittsburgh will play without Schultz, who is doubtful for this game, this is extra miss for them.

Conclusion and the pick

There are couple contradictory things here and you can decide whatever you like. I gave you couple of information, so you don’t need to look and research on the internet and you can use those information wisely.

There are three things that I don’t like about playing on Islanders. First of all, they have very bad record against Pittsburgh and they have very bad record in Pittsburgh. Secondly, the odds dropped during the day. I understand that 70% of people will be on Pittsburgh, but there is also couple of good handicappers who will be with them for sure. And of course Pittsburgh is a beast at home who will face Islanders, that are playing third game in 4 nights.

But there are also other things that I like about Islanders. First of all, they are simply better team this season than Pittsburg. they are better on even strength and Pittsburgh is not. There is always a pressure on referees in Pittsburgh and I saw couple of times how they won a game, where they should lost. They came back with power plays or some extra attackers at the end.

 

There were couple of games, where Pittsburgh should lost, but they came back somehow. And I think such things you can not repeat all the time.

Islanders have more experienced goalie and despite bad record in Pittsburgh and against Pittsburgh, Islanders still beat them in last two meetings last season. They beat Pittsburgh once on the road and once at home. We also must understand that Islanders are better and better every year. They are not the same team than 4-5 years ago. This is a playoff team right now and when we talk about their last 30 games in Pittsburgh we included weak Islanders. This season they are 9th best in the league, while Pittsburgh is just 16th.

And the last thing…. with my model I give more than 50% to Islanders. With current bookmakers odds, where we can get Islanders for more than 2.30 I think the right play today is a road team with Halak in the net.

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NHL Betting analysis of the day – Chicago Blackhawks at Washington Capitals

Chicago Blackhawks and Washington Capitals will play for the first time this season. The last game didn’t end well for Chicago, because they lost in Washington by 6-0 and this was one of those games, that they want to forget. And they definitely forget that game, because it was played last season. But when we talk about past performances and meetings between those two teams, Chicago lost 6 straight games in Washington and it will be interesting to watch if they can end this bad streak there.

But let’s start with the odds.

Bookmakers opened the odds at around +131 on Chicago and -145 on Washington, but then the odds dropped on Chicago during the day and right now you can get Chicago for 2.15 (Us +115) and Washington for 1.772 (-130) on Nitrogensports.

The public is and will be more on Washington, but the odds still dropped on Chicago. If you are “line movement” bettor, than you will definitely like Chicago here. But I will go trough available information, including my projected odds and then we will try to make a prediction or even better, try to find the value.

My projected odds

H/A Game P# GF/G GA/G xOFF+ xDEF+ PP PK Win% Odds US Odds Totals
Away Chicago Blackhawks 18 3.04 2.70 99 87 29 4 45.06% 2.22 122
6.09
Home Washington Capitals 12 3.00 3.00 103 98 7 22 54.94% 1.82 -122

 

I have projected, that Washington will have around 54.94% of chance to win this game. My fair odds on them are at around 1.82 (Us -122).

On the other side Chicago Blackhawks projected odds are at 2.22 (+122) and there is no value if I compare my odds with bookmakers odds.

I expect, that bookmakers pay me at least $82 for my Washington bet of $100, but the current odds offered on them are 1.772 and if I bet on Washington I get less than I would expect.

On the other side I expect, that someone (bookmakers) will pay me at least $122 for my Chicago bet of $100. But according to the odds right now, I would get only $113 of profit (odds 2.13 or us odds of +113).

As you see I have projected exactly the same odds, than bookmakers. The only difference is because I don’t include margins into my calculations and they do. But in general the odds are pretty same.

Washington is on a very good streak right now…

Washington didn’t start the season well, but right now, they are playing really well. They won 6 out of last 8 games and they beat pretty good teams in this period (Tampa, Toronto, Columbus, San Jose, Minnesota and Ottawa). They score 3 goals per game and I rank their offence for 3% better than league average. They allow 3 goals per game and I rank their defence for 2% better than league average. They have 7th best power play and it will be interesting to see them against 4th best penalty kill from Chicago.

Chicago is on a bad streak…

Chicago lost 4 straight games. They lost against Nashville, Los Angeles and twice against Dallas. All those teams are good teams, but they will face a very good team tonight as well. They score 3.04 goals per game, but despite that, I rank their defence lower than Washington and I their xOFF- is 99, which tells us, that they are for 1% weaker than league average offence. Their main strenght is not their offence, but their defence. They allow 2.7 goals per game and I rank them for 13% better than league average defensive team. Note also, that they have 4th best penalty kill unit in the league.

Goalie match up

But Chicago’s success in defence is a combination of good goalie and his teammates. The problem today is that they will not play with their best goalie. Crawford, who is 11-9 to the season with amazing SV% of 0.930 is injured. They will start with Forsberg, who is just 1-6 to the season and his SV% is 0.914 and much lower on the road (0.898 in 5 games). This is his 4th season in NHL and he didn’t play much NHL games and especially he was never a first goalie. His career SV% is just 0.879.

Washington Capitals on the other side will start with Braden Holtby, who is their first goalie. He is 14-6 to the season and 8-4 at home. His SV% is 0.919, but at home his numbers are even better (0.935). He has very good percentage of quality starts too. He has amazing numbers against Chicago in his career going 6-2, SV% 0.927 and GAA 2.23. He is 0.921 career goalie.

Washington will definitely have huge advantage in the net.

Injuries

Chicago will play without Corey Crawford, Marian Hossa and Michal Rozsival. Hossa and Rozsival are not a factor for this game. I don’t say, that they are not important players, because they are and especially Hossa is very important, but they are injured for long time and current statistics and the results, that are created by Chicago this season are not affected by those two players. However, they will miss Crawford and he is their most important player. If we check point shares he is way above all. Crawford is a huge miss for Chicago Blackhawks.

Washington on the other side will play without T.J. Oshie and Andre Burakovsky. Burakovsky played 9 games and he collected 4 points. I like him how he plays, but he is not important for this game. T.J. Oshie on the other side is important player, because he is their second goalscorer and 5th most important player for Washington team.

Trends and other interesting information

Home team is 8-2 in last 10 meetings between those two teams and Chicago will play on the road in Washington. They don’t have the best record there, because they are lost 6 straight games in Washington and they also lost 6 out of 7 meetings.

Bad situations for Chicago continues… they are a good team, but they lost 14 out of 17 games versus winning teams and Washington is definitely one of those winning teams. Chicago is 6-13 on the road and if you bet blindly on Chicago whole season you would make a loss (-5.9 units). Of course their record against very good home teams (home record above 0.600) is even worse. They are just 1-8 against teams, that have home record above 0.600 (Washington home record = 0.67). But they will play on 2 days rest and they are 4-0 in last 4 games on 2 days rest.

Washington on the other side will play on 1 day rest and they are 45-15 in last 65 games on 1 day rest. They have very good record against Chicago and they also play very good against bad teams (78-36 in last 114 against losing teams – Chicago is 12-15 this season).

Conclusion and the pick

According to my projected odds and bookmakers odds, there is no value in this game. If we take into account, that Chicago will play without their most valuable player – Crawford and if we take into account that Washington will play without T.J. Oshie, I think both teams will be weaker little bit.

But if we look at bigger picture, we have Washington team, that is finally playing very good ice hockey. They are on a good streak and they have very good record at home. In last 5 games, they played much better teams than Chicago. Chicago is just 18th this season according to points and Washington played in last 5 against: TAMPA (#1) win by 3-1, TORONTO (#9) win by 4-2, LOS ANGELES (#5) loss by 2-5, COLUMBUS (#9) win by 4-3, SAN JOSE (#14) win by 4-1. As you see, they had pretty tough schedule, because they played against above league average teams and they still beat 4 out of 5 teams. Today they will go against #18 team in the league, that has negative road record and will play without their best goalie.

RECOMMENDED BET: WASHINGTON CAPITALS at 1.78 (Us odds -128) at Bitcoinrush

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